Holy Cow~~

[sprites]

Look at all this moisture getting ready to pounce California.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/clark/2006/Water_Vapor_2_GIF.gif


Stage Being Set for A Major California Storm-Big Flooding Concerns
Friday, February 24, 2006
The stage is being set for a major winter storm in California Sunday through Monday night. All the ingredients look to be coming together to produce widespread heavy rain with major flooding problems from northern California to the southern coastal and mountain areas. This storm could rival, or suprass, any single storm so far this rainfall season. While I am sure exact details may change a little, the overall picture will not. There will be heavy rain, and it will be widespread, causing flooding problems.

First lets identify the players. Below is an afternoon enhanced infrared satellite of the Eastern Pacific.



The first player is the swirl of clouds in the Gulf of Alaska. This a strong storm that is beginning to move south carrying with it impressive moisture. The second player is the two bright area of clouds in the south-central Pacific associated with a sub tropical storm that also has abundant moisture.

To keep it as simple as possible, there are going to be two main areas of rain moving across California, call it a double-barrel shot. The first shot of rain will be associated with the storm currently in the south-central Pacific. That rain moves into central and northern California Sunday producing a period of heavy rain. The second rain event will come Monday and Monday night when the big storm now in the Gulf of Alaska turns to the east and moves toward, and then into California. The second band of rain affects all of the state, bringing heavy rain into southern California from the mountains on west. This second band of rain will also be responsible for bringing the most rain as it will have so much more upper level support with it.

Both these storms will have tremendous amounts of moisture. The satellite picture below measures the amount of water vapor in the air.



The greens to red colors indicate high levels of water. It is this very moist air that will be driven inland on a strong south to southwest flow that will cause the very high rain amounts. The heaviest rains are going to occur on the south and west facing slopes of all the mountains, from the coastal range of northern and central California to the mountains of San Diego County, and also along the west slopes of the Sierra below the snow level. A south to southwest flow of air in excess of 50 mph will be forced up these mountain slopes tripling, or quadrupling, the rain amounts that occur in the lowlands.

Okay, now for some specifics. This storm will at least rival any storm so far this winter in total rainfall. Expect a general rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over all the lowlands of California, including the Central Valley. Lowlands near the mountains, could easily have 3 to 6 inches of rain. The foothills and mountains below the snow level are likely to have 6 to 12 inches of rain with potentially more in some localized spots. This is the kind of storm that has in the past brought over 15 inches of rain when the band of heavy rain has stalled for a few hours. The areas that are most susceptible to the highest rainfall amounts are usually the mountains of San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, as well as the west facing slopes of the central and southern Sierra. Of particular concern are the burn areas in southern California in the vicinity of the Topanga, School and Harvard burn areas where rainfall rates of up to an inch per hour easily could produce a serious threat of mudslides.

As for snowfall. Snow levels will this storm will initially be very high, ranging from 7,000-7,500 feet in the north to 8,000 feet in the south. Snow levels will not lower significantly until the heaviest precipitation moves off to the east. But this is the kind of storm that could bring 6 to 12 FEET of snow to Mammoth and 4 to 8 feet to the Tahoe resorts, especially mid and upper mountain slopes.

As I said earlier, details may change some over the next two days. I may be able to pinpoint better where the most excessive rains will occur tomorrow and be more precise on rainfall amounts. I must stress, however, that it looks as certain as can be that a lot of the state will have heavy rain that will cause problems.

Until then,

Your Guide in all kinds of weather,

Ken

[LTHLBLU]

Yea, there saying flooding up here due the high snow levels (7.5K-8K feet),but anything above that may get 3-6 feet of snow. This is a wet storm.

[wxmann_91]

Great storm but was not as I had hoped. Rainfall rates never reached half inch an hour, and thus, storm totals aren't that high. We are going to land mostly in the lower range of the projected QPF, again, drought probably has some effect.

[sprites]

Great storm but was not as I had hoped. Rainfall rates never reached half inch an hour, and thus, storm totals aren't that high. We are going to land mostly in the lower range of the projected QPF, again, drought probably has some effect.

Well, Southern California did get some rain, but the bulk of the storm went north.

[azsnowman]

Screwed us here!

Dennis

[wxmann_91]

Great storm but was not as I had hoped. Rainfall rates never reached half inch an hour, and thus, storm totals aren't that high. We are going to land mostly in the lower range of the projected QPF, again, drought probably has some effect.

Well, Southern California did get some rain, but the bulk of the storm went north.

Yes the vorticity centers moved north, but the subtropical connection hit us dead-on. We would've gotten more rain had the moisture been wrung out, but the lower levels were just a tad too dry.