Met Dr. Steve Lyons: his thoughts on Katrina, etc.

[Lindaloo]

Well then SHOW ME where you come up with the expertise in saying she wasn't a CAT5 when experts say she was. Here is one for ya... I saw the destruction first hand and HECK even I KNEW damage was from surge and not a CAT 5 Katrina.

With all due respect... I'm rather confused here. The way I view this, you went from talking about Camille and then transitioned into a "cat 5" Katrina.

I was comparing because I was only 4 when Camille hit.

[senorpepr]

Well then SHOW ME where you come up with the expertise in saying she wasn't a CAT5 when experts say she was. Here is one for ya... I saw the destruction first hand and HECK even I KNEW damage was from surge and not a CAT 5 Katrina.

With all due respect... I'm rather confused here. The way I view this, you went from talking about Camille and then transitioned into a "cat 5" Katrina.

I was comparing because I was only 4 when Camille hit.

Ahh... fair enough. Mind you that I needed to go to bed about 12 hours ago.

[f5]

Show me where a pro-met has bashed someone in this thread. Please. All I have seen are posts / charts to correct the false statements flying around in here about a storm that some people feel should put on a pedestal..,and BTW it never will be.

Uhmmmm.... BTW... it IS on a pedestal in my house, and most of my neighbors' houses as well.

It is interesting for a storm that "will never be on a pedestal", that it (Katrina) has been the daily focus of virtually every major medial outlet since about August 27? In my lifetime, I cannot recall ANY other US land-falling hurricane that has received this much attention - be it here in S2K or anywhere else... Every day since late August, anyone who has turned on the TV, read a newspaper, or looked at a magazine as read or heard the name Katrina.

Katrina put a city under water

[Audrey2Katrina]

Show me where a pro-met has bashed someone in this thread. Please. All I have seen are posts / charts to correct the false statements flying around in here about a storm that some people feel should put on a pedestal..,and BTW it never will be.

Uhmmmm.... BTW... it IS on a pedestal in my house, and most of my neighbors' houses as well.

It is interesting for a storm that "will never be on a pedestal", that it (Katrina) has been the daily focus of virtually every major medial outlet since about August 27? In my lifetime, I cannot recall ANY other US land-falling hurricane that has received this much attention - be it here in S2K or anywhere else... Every day since late August, anyone who has turned on the TV, read a newspaper, or looked at a magazine as read or heard the name Katrina.

Good point!

A2K

[Stormcenter]

FWIW, Dr. Lyons seemed to fully back the notion that most of New Orleans got Cat 1 sustained winds (and eastern Cat 2)...

I'm sorry but I believe downtown N.O. had Cat.3 winds. Did you happen to see the pictures of the Superdome's roof and other areas after Katrina?

[MiamiensisWx]

Katrina also put the most mind-boggling catastrophic surge along a mind-boggling stretch of coastline and created a mind-boggling disaster.

KATRINA: MIND-BOGGLING DISASTER

[Extremeweatherguy]

Show me where a pro-met has bashed someone in this thread. Please. All I have seen are posts / charts to correct the false statements flying around in here about a storm that some people feel should put on a pedestal..,and BTW it never will be.

Uhmmmm.... BTW... it IS on a pedestal in my house, and most of my neighbors' houses as well.

It is interesting for a storm that "will never be on a pedestal", that it (Katrina) has been the daily focus of virtually every major medial outlet since about August 27? In my lifetime, I cannot recall ANY other US land-falling hurricane that has received this much attention - be it here in S2K or anywhere else... Every day since late August, anyone who has turned on the TV, read a newspaper, or looked at a magazine as read or heard the name Katrina.

Katrina put a city under water

and not just that; I think another factor behind its long-lasting media impact is the high death toll and also the politics that are at play behind the storm. It was a 3 strikes and your out situation. Politics+storm surge+high death toll = remembered and talked about for years.

[Stormcenter]

I'm not saying that there were stronger winds than Cat 1 or 2 IN New Orleans, but that doesn't mean there's no wind damage either. I have seen entire brick walls that have collapsed where there was no flooding.

we had brick walls fall in Galveston with Rita. Didn't even see cat 1 winds...


EWG- I agree with all your points. Kat offically was a 3 at landfall. Wind damage seen in NO was not even close to sustained cat 3 winds.

Have you been there personally? I have and I disagree with you.

[senorpepr]

I appreciate your trying to clarify the issue; but then just tell me: Do you feel the 84 KT "sustained" referred to in the NHC report was, in fact, "sustained" winds at that magnitude? Because this is the same facility that reported the 107 KT winds at another guage using exactly the same terminology. Not trying to be contentious--just wish to clarify it.

A2K

The 84KT would be what we normally refer to as a sustained wind. (Although maybe 1 or 2 knots less when adjusting for proper height.) The question is... is the other gauge at the same height? If so... why wasn't it included into the report? Something was some different with it that it was completely thrown out. If I could see an actual reference, then I could further clarify.

I will try to get the actual NWS site for you, and appreciate your efforts.

A2K

Okay... here's the scoop from what I gathered. (I made a couple of phone calls which occasionally helps, because I'm getting rather braindead with a lack of sleep. ) I'll try to explain this the best I can.

First, recaping what I mentioned earlier... the one-minute is the scale/unit of measurement. That one-minute average can take place over a second or a year, whatever. What matters is that wind occurs for 2 minutes or longer. 100KT for a minute and then 90KT for the next minute and then 100KT for the next minute will only yield a sustained wind of 90KT. (Because the 100KT didn't last for 2 consecutive minutes.)

Okay... with that said... the 84KT from gauge one was an actual report sent from the processor. That is 84KT sustained (one-minute average) for at least two full minutes.

The 107KT from gauge two was a visual observation of the readout. Basically, someone by the machine looked at the instant readout and it said 107KT. Now... how long was 107KT displayed?? We don't know. It needed to be displayed for two-minutes for it to be a sustained wind rather than a gust.

Now... I believe the 107KT is a gust because... had it been 107KT for two-minutes, the gauge would have recorded that measurement. (or at least I would assume so. I wasn't there, so I can only guess.) Instead, we're relying on someone's visuals. Secondly, if the NHC had reason to believe the wind was 107KT for at least two-minutes, it would have been included into the NHC report, even as an unofficial report like the 84KT report was. Thirdly, KLIX NWS report says peak wind. 84KT and 107KT for gauges one and two, respectively, were the peak. The 84KT happened to be a peak-sustained, while 107KT was apparently just a peak with a lower sustained reading. (example: 80G107KT)

That's my two cents.

[Stormcenter]

I apologize to anyone I have offended here. But there comes a time when people that have been affected by this great disaster can only handle so much. We may never know how strong the winds were because there are no official reporting stations in downtown N.O. New Orleans proper was in the western eyewall or the weaker side. An updated Post Strom report from the NWS as of Feb. 17th shows a second wind gauge peak wind of 107 knots at Michoud in New Orleans East.

Too many people have lost everything they own and some far worse than that, have lost family and/or friends. People are entitled to their opinions, but there is a hard difference between fact and opinion. Too many people cannot grasp what happened from here to Mobile. They want to base their opinions on pictures and videos. It cannot be done. The devestation caused by Katrina has soldiers who have fought in Iraq shaking their heads and saying nothing there as far as destruction goes, compares to this. I want someone to tell my 83yo father, who lost everything he owns, that Katrina was not a strong hurricane. He will tell you that 2 trees thru his roof and 6ft of water was as devestating as they come and he only had a couple of shingles off his roof.

I don't think anyone is downplaying how bad Katrina was in this thread. The point is and still remains that cat 2 winds with higher gusts will knock down trees. Those types of winds are pretty formidable.

That is not always actually the case.

[senorpepr]

I'm sorry but I believe downtown N.O. had Cat.3 winds. Did you happen to see the pictures of the Superdome's roof and other areas after Katrina?

Category one surface winds would produce category three sustained winds at the height of the Superdome's roof.

[Extremeweatherguy]

FWIW, Dr. Lyons seemed to fully back the notion that most of New Orleans got Cat 1 sustained winds (and eastern Cat 2)...

I'm sorry but I believe downtown N.O. had Cat.3 winds. Did you happen to see the pictures of the Superdome's roof and other areas after Katrina?

you think DOWNTOWN got cat. 3 winds? There is simply no evidence what so ever to support that. Here is a post I made earlier to show that DOWNTOWN did not see Cat. 3 force winds:

Ok....here is some evidence to support the fact that N.O. DID NOT see Cat. 2 or 3 sustained winds...


^^Yes, this looks like a ton of damage, but on closer inspection it is really not too bad. First off, it looks like all these light poles remained standing, second off...look at that sign on the building in the upper right side of the picture, it received no damage at all.^^


^^Yes, the flooding is bad in this picture..but to think that a Cat. 2 or 3 just blew through and there is only one bent power pole along this whole street is crazy. Also, those homes in the background seemed to have suffered little to no damage to their roofs.^^


^^Here is a picture I found online of someone returning to New Orleans. Notice this house has no shingle or wall damage. I doubt the area where this picture was taken even saw Cat. 1 force winds.^^


^^Why are all these signs standing and barely bent?^^


^^Yes, this is bad...but a similar situation happened in Galveston, TX with just 60-70mph wind gusts. Also, notice that the lights and building in the background seem un-damaged.^^


^^As you head outside the city it is clear that the damage gets much worse...but even this kind of damage can be done by a Cat. 1 force wind.^^


^^In places like Kenner, the damage gets even worse...but still, a Cat. 1 force wind can do this kind of damage.^^

..And that is my evidence on why I do not think N.O. or it's surrounding areas saw Cat. 3 force winds...and unless in the far east side, I doubt most areas saw above Cat. 1 force..

[Opal storm]

FWIW, Dr. Lyons seemed to fully back the notion that most of New Orleans got Cat 1 sustained winds (and eastern Cat 2)...

I'm sorry but I believe downtown N.O. had Cat.3 winds. Did you happen to see the pictures of the Superdome's roof and other areas after Katrina?

Gusts to cat 3 yes,sustained winds no.From what I've seen,the wind damage in downtown N.O. doesn't look nearly as bad as what downtown Pensacola looked like after Ivan.And downtown Pensacola saw cat 1 winds during Ivan.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm sorry but I believe downtown N.O. had Cat.3 winds. Did you happen to see the pictures of the Superdome's roof and other areas after Katrina?

Not true! Also, the Superdome is a poor example.

[Stormcenter]

Rock wrote

skysummit wrote:
I'm not saying that there were stronger winds than Cat 1 or 2 IN New Orleans, but that doesn't mean there's no wind damage either. I have seen entire brick walls that have collapsed where there was no flooding.


we had brick walls fall in Galveston with Rita. Didn't even see cat 1 winds...


EWG- I agree with all your points. Kat offically was a 3 at landfall. Wind damage seen in NO was not even close to sustained cat 3 winds.

There maybe other reasons why the brick walls fell in Galveston.

Here we go again. If you are talking downtown New Orleans, more than likely cat 2 gusts. New Orleans is not just the French Quarter. It's Michoud, Lake Catherine, Rigolets, Fort Pike, New Orleans East. Those are all the city of New Orleans. Orleans Parish is the city of New Orleans.

Maybe when someone talks about New Orleans, they need to clarify they are speaking of downtown. There was an update to the Post Storm report dated Feb 17th. Second wind gauge at Michoud, 107 knots peak wind. Does not mention or call it a gust, and yes it is unofficial.

All I ask is don't base your facts or opinions on videotape. You don't and cannot see everything that has happened. It also depends on where one's location was when they shot the video. I know what cat 1/2 winds can do to trees. I'm almost 50yo and have been thru many storms. Cat 2 wind gusts did not do the type of damage that has occured to a lot of these trees. My dad who is 83yo and has lived in Slidell all his life except for 1942-1944, has said he has never seen anything like this and I trust his judgement more than someone sitting and viewing videotapes.

I was talking about downtown New Orleans. I saw a CNN live report from Mardi Gras in N.O. today and it looked like there was very little damage in the city. Also, the video I was talking about seeing that was taken right after the storm came from the downtown area of N.O. too. My opinion is that North and west of downtown they saw TS force or Cat. 1 force winds...downtown they saw Cat. 1 force winds...and in eastern N.O. (inluding Michoud) they saw Cat. 2 force winds from Katrina. This is based off of video, pictures, eyewitness accounts, and a few people I know that live in parts of N.O. and have told me this.

The highest gust in downtown N.O. was 114mph.

[Ixolib]

Show me where a pro-met has bashed someone in this thread. Please. All I have seen are posts / charts to correct the false statements flying around in here about a storm that some people feel should put on a pedestal..,and BTW it never will be.

Uhmmmm.... BTW... it IS on a pedestal in my house, and most of my neighbors' houses as well.

It is interesting for a storm that "will never be on a pedestal", that it (Katrina) has been the daily focus of virtually every major medial outlet since about August 27? In my lifetime, I cannot recall ANY other US land-falling hurricane that has received this much attention - be it here in S2K or anywhere else... Every day since late August, anyone who has turned on the TV, read a newspaper, or looked at a magazine as read or heard the name Katrina.

Katrina put a city under water

and not just that; I think another factor behind its long-lasting media impact is the high death toll and also the politics that are at play behind the storm. It was a 3 strikes and your out situation. Politics+storm surge+high death toll = remembered and talked about for years.

Agree...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Rock wrote

skysummit wrote:
I'm not saying that there were stronger winds than Cat 1 or 2 IN New Orleans, but that doesn't mean there's no wind damage either. I have seen entire brick walls that have collapsed where there was no flooding.


we had brick walls fall in Galveston with Rita. Didn't even see cat 1 winds...


EWG- I agree with all your points. Kat offically was a 3 at landfall. Wind damage seen in NO was not even close to sustained cat 3 winds.

There maybe other reasons why the brick walls fell in Galveston.

Here we go again. If you are talking downtown New Orleans, more than likely cat 2 gusts. New Orleans is not just the French Quarter. It's Michoud, Lake Catherine, Rigolets, Fort Pike, New Orleans East. Those are all the city of New Orleans. Orleans Parish is the city of New Orleans.

Maybe when someone talks about New Orleans, they need to clarify they are speaking of downtown. There was an update to the Post Storm report dated Feb 17th. Second wind gauge at Michoud, 107 knots peak wind. Does not mention or call it a gust, and yes it is unofficial.

All I ask is don't base your facts or opinions on videotape. You don't and cannot see everything that has happened. It also depends on where one's location was when they shot the video. I know what cat 1/2 winds can do to trees. I'm almost 50yo and have been thru many storms. Cat 2 wind gusts did not do the type of damage that has occured to a lot of these trees. My dad who is 83yo and has lived in Slidell all his life except for 1942-1944, has said he has never seen anything like this and I trust his judgement more than someone sitting and viewing videotapes.

I was talking about downtown New Orleans. I saw a CNN live report from Mardi Gras in N.O. today and it looked like there was very little damage in the city. Also, the video I was talking about seeing that was taken right after the storm came from the downtown area of N.O. too. My opinion is that North and west of downtown they saw TS force or Cat. 1 force winds...downtown they saw Cat. 1 force winds...and in eastern N.O. (inluding Michoud) they saw Cat. 2 force winds from Katrina. This is based off of video, pictures, eyewitness accounts, and a few people I know that live in parts of N.O. and have told me this.

The highest gust in downtown N.O. was 114mph.

the key word there is gust.

[skysummit]

You know what's crazy about those pictures? The ones that are "outside" of the city are actually WEST of downtown. That picture of the Galleria (the one with the mirror like windows) doesn't show anything. The other side of that building had 75 - 80% of the windows blown out. That picture of the home with no damage is in the French Quarter which basically looked untouched. As a matter of fact, the day after Katrina, I was working in the Quarter, and Bourbon St was the cleanest I have ever seen it.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Well then SHOW ME where you come up with the expertise in saying she wasn't a CAT5 when experts say she was. Here is one for ya... I saw the destruction first hand and HECK even I KNEW damage was from surge and not a CAT 5 Katrina.

With all due respect... I'm rather confused here. The way I view this, you went from talking about Camille and then transitioned into a "cat 5" Katrina.

I was comparing because I was only 4 when Camille hit.

Ahh... fair enough. Mind you that I needed to go to bed about 12 hours ago.

Well, pleasant dreams, and well deserved, I'm sure! But when ya come back, if you want the NOAA NWS updated site, I've found it.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/html/psh_katrina.htm

Scrolling down to the Michoud data you'll find the following:

EASTERN NEW ORLEANS - NASA MICHOUD FACILITY WIND EQUIPMENT 40 FT
GAGE 1 PEAK WIND 84 KT 1059UTC
GAGE 2 PEAK WIND 107 KT 1415UTC

You'll note that the 84 KT is EXACTLY the one referred to IN the Katrina report as a one-minute sustained wind... and yes, I SEE the "peak wind" reference; but they also use "GUST" in this report and it's not used here. I dunno, maybe the term here means peak 1-minute, I can't speak to that with any degree of certainty; but the same term is used for that 107 at 1415 UTC (much closer to the eyewall reading) and perhaps it wasn't in the Katrina Report as it came out after as it's in an "updated" report.
Hope this helps, and hope you get some well-deserved z-z-z-'s... sleep well!

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

You know what's crazy about those pictures? The ones that are "outside" of the city are actually WEST of downtown. That picture of the Galleria (the one with the mirror like windows) doesn't show anything. The other side of that building had 75 - 80% of the windows blown out. That picture of the home with no damage is in the French Quarter which basically looked untouched. As a matter of fact, the day after Katrina, I was working in the Quarter, and Bourbon St was the cleanest I have ever seen it.

Don't waste much time getting the tourist trap up and running again do they? LOL... They DO need the return income as tourism is/was second only to the port as a source of income to this city. Have a good 1 Sky!

A2K