Looks like March could come in like a lion in the Midwest!?!

[jhamps10]

Now of course this is 5 days out, and could not happen at all, but 2 VERY dependable metrologists are giving us a heads up for possible severe weather on Wed of next week, which will be march 1st!!!!

my thinking is that it could happen, since she had 65 forcasted, but she said it could be as high as 70 and mentioned the s word, and I aient talkin about snow here pepps. I got a wierd feeling about this... could be a repeat of last week here in STL....

[conestogo_flood]

Where is the Midwest?

[jhamps10]

Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Arkansas, Kansas, The middle of the U.S....

[wxmann_91]

It's possible. If we have enough moisture return and a good strong system ejecting into the Plains we could get something going. As we progress later into March climo will slowly become more favorable for us.

[WaitingForSiren]

I'm going with a possiblity, but I dont expect a significant event. I think itll play out very much like the last severe event in the midwest...severe storms from st louis to little rock or so, probably scattered hail reports and high wind reports, with a few tornadoes. Like wx mann said, itll depend on the moisture return. But Im not so sure, i think theres a possiblity of no severe weather, I mean the storm will be somewhat weakening and it looks like the strongest energy will be near the low. Still, since this should be a warm system with not much heavy snow likely, I guess some severe weather is possible.

[jhamps10]

UNSEASONABLY WRM TEMPS SET IN MONDAY AND WILL CONT THRU WED WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S TUE AND PERHAPS 70 PLUS ON WED. DWPTS INCR
TO 45 TO 50 TUE NIGHT AND SHUD HOLD MINS UP TUE NIGHT...PROBABLY
ABV 50 TUE NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE METRO AREAS DEPENDING ON WND
SPEED.

SHUD STAY DRY UNTIL FROPA WED AFTN AND IT DOESN`T LOOK REALLY
PROMISING...IF ANYTHING DOES FIRE UP THOUGH IT COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER TIME. WILL MENT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND LOOK AT ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO BEFORE HONING IN ON IT TOO MUCH.

I like what St. Louis is saying about this, if anything pops up, it could be severe.... Not saying it will happen, but not saying that it's going to be a nice dry spring like day either....

This is how I think it will go down. If the gulf gives some more moisture, then there is a higher chance of storms, but moisture is the big issue here. I agree with siren's idea that it will be mainly a repeat of last week, and not a very major outbreak. but we have days to watch this, and as always this time of year, it could change DRASTICALLY

[wxmann_91]

Indeed. Winter, early spring, and fall setups are always a challenge since just a tad more moisture than anticipated and it's a major tornado outbreak.

[jhamps10]

yeah this time of year, things can change in a heartbeat.

Personally, I do think it will be a very busy severe weather season this year. 2-3 outbreaks already this year, plus the stormy fall last year kinda puts me on edge personally.

But if we do have any severe weather on Wed , we can't say that we were not warned. I mean, usually 3 days out they start talking about it, that's why I even created the thread cause it's rare for meterlogists to mention the severe weather card 5-6 days out. But if I was to make a prediction this far out, it would be that:

Main risk areas from Columbia-Jeff. City, MO to around Memphis and back up halfway between Evansville and Louisville, around to Indy and around to Peoria, IL, with a torando risk from just west of st.louis down to Northern Arkansas to just east of Owensboro, KY to Terre Haute and around to Springfield, and back down again.

[wxmann_91]

The latest GFS run is DRASTICALLY different.

First - initialization

FOR THE START OF THE 00Z GFS MODEL RECEIVED 9 DROPSONDE
REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV FLYING OVER THE PACIFIC IN AN
AREA FROM 40-55N AND 135-145W IN SUPPORT OF THE WINTER
STORM RECON PROGRAM.

Okay, well more data is better.

Now let's see the end result.











NOTE: images are time-sensitive

This is a complete flip-flop, 12 hours ago it was showing a zonal flow across the Plains. Despite the new inputed data, I am not betting any money on this. The extreme solution, an outlier, and ensembles aren't agreeing. Such progressive amplified patterns are always tough for models to handle. Still, something to watch in the coming days if we get others agreeing, and a trend.

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah I noticed the GFS went nuts with that storm, and apparently SPC agrees with the latest GFS.

[conestogo_flood]

[jhamps10]

wow, things sure have changed. but I can't understand this, I was talking about storm possibilites on Mar. 1st, or this wed when a strong cold front blows through the area and not for the weekend. SPC seems to think that there could be action next weekend, I did not know of any such possibilites for the weekend. Sounds like a busy week to me.

[jhamps10]

yeah, it seems that every TV station in St. Louis is taking grasp on a chance of storms on Wed. here is the forcast from ch. 2 I just saw a little while ago this morning.

Wed. Storms Late (possible severe w/ these high temps) High 73 degrees, low 36!!!!

And on thurs. only up to 50 if were lucky.

P.S. everyone I see here is calling for a raw,cold weekend next weekend. Too cold for storms in my opinion. maybe highs up to 40 at best. Could be WAY,WAY,WAY off though

[wxmann_91]

Yeah I noticed the GFS went nuts with that storm, and apparently SPC agrees with the latest GFS.

Well the 12Z poofs it again. Never trust an extreme solution that only pops up for one single model run...

EDIT: well it doesn't poof it, but it's dramatically weaker.

[WaitingForSiren]

yep, I noticed the GFS sure backed off now. To be honest, i try not to even pay attention to those models.

[conestogo_flood]

Is this still on?

[wxmann_91]

Is this still on?

Maybe. WFO SGF mentions it in the AFD and technically, with last night's 0Z runs inputed with more data, and naturally the 0Z runs usually are the most accurate with initialization (and therefore the most reliable), I'd wait and see if the 0Z run goes bullish on it again.

[jhamps10]

Is this still on?

Maybe. WFO SGF mentions it in the AFD and technically, with last night's 0Z runs inputed with more data, and naturally the 0Z runs usually are the most accurate with initialization (and therefore the most reliable), I'd wait and see if the 0Z run goes bullish on it again.

Are you talking about Wed. or next weekend? or do you think that there could be a double shot of severe weather this week???

[wxmann_91]

Is this still on?

Maybe. WFO SGF mentions it in the AFD and technically, with last night's 0Z runs inputed with more data, and naturally the 0Z runs usually are the most accurate with initialization (and therefore the most reliable), I'd wait and see if the 0Z run goes bullish on it again.

Are you talking about Wed. or next weekend? or do you think that there could be a double shot of severe weather this week???

There could be two shots, but most likely only one.

[conestogo_flood]

There is no longer anything on the 1-3 day outlook or 4-8 day outlook. Is this a bust?