Met Dr. Steve Lyons: his thoughts on Katrina, etc.

[Pearl River]

Stratosphere wrote

Would be nice if we could get Steve on the site and actually confirm his thoughts on the matter at hand.

Stratosphere. I think that would be a good idea if it could happen.

Just a little info about the French Quarter:

EWG wrote

I mean come on..they get Cat. 2 winds and then the next day the french quarter is up and running? Doesn't sound like Cat. 2 wind damage to me.

The French Quarter was not opened up to business owners until Sept. 26th, and then one month later was opened for business.

[Audrey2Katrina]

EVERYONE and I mean EVERYONE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS ARGUMENT ABOUT KATRINA'S WINDS needs to drop it and move on. It is sad that it ALWAYS drops to the level that an administrator or staff member has to come in and put a stop to it. This thread was originally about what Dr. Lyons said about Katrina and Andrew also. So why are there arguments about who is right or wrong about the winds past what he stated????

Can't argue with what you've said, vbhoutex. I guess some of us go chasing after red herrings when tossed into the mix. Originally it was just that, all about the points Dr. Lyons brought up, and when you think about it, his expressed feelings that the storm was in fact a 4 at initial if not both landfalls, is directly related to the windspeed topic, so it IS kind'a hard not to get into that arena. It IS a topic some of us are quite interested in, and I can't speak for anyone else; but I've found the majority of what's been dicussed in here to be fairly civil. Yes, there has been the unfortunate back-and-forth- and that does need to stop. Reasonable people should be able to disagree without resorting to, as you put it, "bashing". Speaking only for myself, I am NOT out to prove anyone "wrong" but I do like to point out scattered evidence (and Lyons opinion fit that category) which lends credence to my viewpoints.

Another good point you mention is the dearth of comments on Andrew. We've had a lot about Camille; but not much on Andrew. It does seem he, and at least one other high up at the NHC feels the Andrew upgrade was unjustified. I'd like to see more comments on that as well.

Hoping for more meaningful dialogue:

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Would be nice if we could get Steve on the site and actually confirm his thoughts on the matter at hand.

That would be GREAT! But I have no clue how to contact him. TWC doesn't have a "contact us" wherein anyone can directly contact the mets, that I've been able to find; but I'd really like to see what he'd have to say about some of the things in here.---Being the professional that he undoubtedly is, I feel he'd share a lot of recently expressed sentiments, and not want to get into any fray about what this area or that area received; but still, it would be fascinating to hear his points on how/why he feels what he does about the storm.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Anyone know how/if he, or anything he's written on the topic could be located. I'd hate to see something as intriguing as these opinions relegated off the radar due to unnecessary animus. Hopefully we can keep it ON target about Dr. Lyons' comments and what the implications thereof are.

Everyone have a nice day... looking forward to the Mardi Gras break here

A2K

[Stratosphere747]

LOL....

I just visited the TWC site as well, and seen nowhere to contact him. In retrospect over the years here, I'm not sure the invitation has ever been extended.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Any suggestions on how/if that can be achieved? I have a pro-met friend I'm going to see if he could find a way to contact him... certainly not making any promises; but I'd sure like to see that viewpoint expressed lucidly in here by someone with his credentials.

A2K

[Stratosphere747]

Anyone know how/if he, or anything he's written on the topic could be located. I'd hate to see something as intriguing as these opinions relegated off the radar due to unnecessary animus. Hopefully we can keep it ON target about Dr. Lyons' comments and what the implications thereof are.

Everyone have a nice day... looking forward to the Mardi Gras break here

A2K

Check the blogs over at the TWC A2K.....He touches on Katrina a bit, but nothing to the effect of what was stated in the conversation by jazzfan. I will say that he has some high quality discussions on the overall season. Even harsh comments on how we tend to look at the season and our preparations. Spot on though.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I might just have to do that, Stratosphere. Personally, I usually avoid TWC's site because it is SOOO commercial with pop-ups and often I have more cookies to clear than after a party for my 6th graders; but going in on high security, I just might have to give that a try

A2K

[Ivanhater]

man ive missed a lot! i do agree this is a GOOD thread and would be a shame for it to be locked...I remember the same argument after Ivan, now it's Katrina's turn, lol maybe if we can get a lot more anemometers and ones that wont break!! we could know a bit more...maybe someone should look into that

[wxmann_91]

Man-O-Man... I can only imagine the discussion this thread's gonna generate!!!

17 pages worth at last count.

[Ixolib]

Man-O-Man... I can only imagine the discussion this thread's gonna generate!!!

17 pages worth at last count.

Now, if I could only figure out how to be equally insightful for the lottery...

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It is actually kinda amazing how the debate in this thread is about a few miles in distance or a few miles in speed. But, then again, that is EXACTLY one of the most fascinating things about tropical systems - truly, I suppose, a few miles one way or the other makes a HUGE difference.

[stacyp]

That would be GREAT! But I have no clue how to contact him. TWC doesn't have a "contact us" wherein anyone can directly contact the mets, that I've been able to find

I just did a little searching on Google and found what I believe is Dr. Lyon's e mail address:
slyons@weather.com
If you do a search for it you'll see a few websites that have it listed, hope that will help. Now I'm back to lurking lol.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Man-O-Man... I can only imagine the discussion this thread's gonna generate!!!

17 pages worth at last count.

Now, if I could only figure out how to be equally insightful for the lottery...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It is actually kinda amazing how the debate in this thread is about a few miles in distance or a few miles in speed. But, then again, that is EXACTLY one of the most fascinating things about tropical systems - truly, I suppose, a few miles one way or the other makes a HUGE difference.

Absolutely true... just ask anyone in either Mississippi, OR Louisiana about what that meant for Camille!

A2K

[f5]

Katrina was a Mississippi storm had Katrina gone 5-10 west of N.O. French quarter Mardi Gras would just be a historical foot note ect...

[Audrey2Katrina]

Katrina was a Mississippi storm had Katrina gone 5-10 west of N.O. French quarter Mardi Gras would just be a historical foot note ect...

Ummm not sure I follow the logic of that in this thread, F5; but folks living in Plaquemines Parish, La. (first landfall), St. Bernard Parish (probably 2nd actual landfall and still missing 4/5 of its residents), as well as Slidell, and areas around Mobile Alabama might have slight issues with what single state could call this "their" storm. Just a thought.

Oh, and returning to the topic, I have spoken to our local met and he will try to see if he can get any more comments from Dr. Lyons, which, if it develops, I'll be posting in here.

A2K

[f5]

the point i'm trying to make had the eye gone 10 miles west worst case scenario beacuse downtown N.O would of been in the NE eyewall

[Aslkahuna]

Had the eye passed 10 miles west on NOLA, more of the eastern semicircle
would have been overland which might have affected the winds there more not to mention the fact that MS might have been spared that monstrous surge. As it was you probably can't possibly come up with the more effective surge track than the one Katrina followed- a due north track into a south facing coast with south facing funnel shaped bays with the eastern semicircle overwater-our version of the coast of Bangladesh.

Steve

[Audrey2Katrina]

I just read an interesting article by Dr. Lyons on his own blog at TWC. It's mostly focused on the SS scale. If anyone is interested in it, here's the link:

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_8421.html?from=blog_permalink_month

I find his description of damage that a huge Cat 1 vs. a small Cat 3 equally interesting.

A2K

[wxmann_91]

Yeah I concur. Katrina took the worst possible track to affect as many people as possible.

I quote/paraphrase F5 again
"Katrina was three storms in one - a Betsy for New Orleans, a Camille for the MGC, and a Frederic for Alabama."

Those three storms were the benchmark previously for each of the mentioned city. You can replace that with Katrina.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Had the eye passed 10 miles west on NOLA, more of the eastern semicircle
would have been overland which might have affected the winds there more not to mention the fact that MS might have been spared that monstrous surge. As it was you probably can't possibly come up with the more effective surge track than the one Katrina followed- a due north track into a south facing coast with south facing funnel shaped bays with the eastern semicircle overwater-our version of the coast of Bangladesh.

Steve

Good point. A few folks have mentioned that had Katrina taken a "Betsy" track it would have been much worse, which I rather doubt as Betsy essentially WAS a Katrina that took a Betsy path and the damage was far less. Probably a true "worst case" lay between those tracks and more over the center of N.O. The track of the 1947 storm truly seems to be a potential catastrophe in the making with current demographics.

A2K