SE Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Emma

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#21 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:16 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1252UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 70 nautical miles of
Latitude eighteen decimal nine degrees South [18.9S]
Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal seven degrees East [114.7E]
Recent movement south at 13 knots.
Maximum winds 35 knots.
Central pressure 988 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 140 nautical miles
in southern quadrants.


FORECAST
Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell. Winds within 25 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50
knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February.

At 0000UTC 28 February: Within 90 nautical miles of
21.2 South 114.6 East
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1200UTC 28 February: Within 110 nautical miles of
23.7 South 114.9 East
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

Next warning issued at 1900 UTC 27 February 2006.

WEATHER PERTH
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#22 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:17 am

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 8:55 pm WST on Monday, 27 February 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 1 TROPICAL CYCLONE is now current for coastal
areas between Whim Creek and Billabong Roadhouse, extending inland into the
western Pilbara and adjacent Gascoyne.

At 8pm WST Tropical Cyclone Emma was estimated to be
305 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
310 kilometres north of Onslow and
moving south at 25 kilometres per hour.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Whim Creek and Exmouth overnight, and extend southwards during Tuesday.

The cyclone centre is expected to be in the vicinity of Onslow about noon on
Tuesday, and winds may reach 120 kilometres per hour as the system crosses the
coast.

Widespread squally thunderstorms are expected in the western Pilbara ahead of
the system.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Emma at 8pm WST.

Location of centre : within 90 kilometres of
Latitude 18.9 South Longitude 114.7 East.
Recent movement : south at 25 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 988 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 1.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Whim Creek and Billabong Roadhouse should listen
for the next advice.

The next advice will be issued at midnight Monday WST.Cyclone advices and State
Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#23 Postby P.K. » Mon Feb 27, 2006 1:31 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1605UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1500UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 45 nautical miles of
Latitude nineteen decimal four degrees South [19.4S]
Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal nine degrees East [114.9E]
Recent movement south at 12 knots.
Maximum winds 40 knots.
Central pressure 986 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles
in eastern quadrants.


FORECAST
Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell. Winds within 25 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50
knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February.

At 0000UTC 28 February: Within 55 nautical miles of
21.2 South 114.6 East
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1200UTC 28 February: Within 65 nautical miles of
23.7 South 114.9 East
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
Next warning issued at 1900 UTC 27 February 2006.

WEATHER PERTH
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#24 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 27, 2006 4:21 pm

Image

WTXS32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMMA) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 115.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 115.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.9S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.8S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 115.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP CON-
VECTION HAS RECENTLY MOVED FROM THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION
TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC 15S IS BEING
STEERED IN A GENERAL POLEWARD DIRECTION BY STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER AUSTRALIA. LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN 18 HOURS
AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATED OVER LAND BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.


Image

EMMA WILL BE SHORT!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#25 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 27, 2006 6:13 pm

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 6:00 am WST on Tuesday, 28 February 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 1 TROPICAL CYCLONE is now current for coastal
areas between Pardoo and Coral Bay, extending to the central inland Pilbara and
adjacent Gascoyne, including Pannawonica, Tom Price and Paraburdoo.

At 5am WST Tropical Cyclone Emma was estimated to be
145 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
190 kilometres north northeast of Onslow and
moving south at 23 kilometres per hour.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected in coastal areas
between Pardoo and Exmouth this morning extending to the inland Pilbara during
the day.

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Dampier and Onslow around
midday. Destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are possible
close to the system centre.

Widespread squally thunderstorms are expected in the coastal Pilbara ahead of
the centre, with heavy rain and flooding expected as the system moves inland.
The heavy rain and squally conditions should rapidly ease following the passage
of the cyclone centre.

Tides between Port Hedland and Onslow are likely to rise above the normal high
tide mark with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Emma at 5am WST.
Location of centre : within 90 kilometres of
Latitude 20.0 South Longitude 115.7 East.
Recent movement : south at 23 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 986 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 105 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 1.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Karratha, Dampier, Point
Samson, Roebourne, Wickham, Mardie should commence action in preparation for the
cyclone's arrival.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Onslow and Exmouth should be
taking precautions.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay and across the inland Pilbara
should listen for the next advice.

The next advice will be issued at 9am Tuesday WST.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#26 Postby P.K. » Mon Feb 27, 2006 6:31 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#27 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:29 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0110UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2006

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude twenty decimal six degrees South [20.6S]
Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal six degrees East [115.6E]
Recent movement south at 12 knots.
Maximum winds 40 knots.
Central pressure 986 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles
in eastern quadrants.


FORECAST
Clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas,
moderate swell. Winds expected to ease below 34 knots by 0600UTC 28 February.

At 1200UTC 28 February: Inland, within 60 nautical miles of
23.2 South 116.1 East
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
Next warning issued at 0700 UTC 28 February 2006.

WEATHER PERTH


THE END IS COMING, FOR EMMA!!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#28 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:46 pm

28/0133 UTC 21.8S 116.2E OVERLAND EMMA -- South Indian Ocean


EMMA JUST LANDED!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#29 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:47 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 11:35 am WST on Tuesday, 28 February 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 1 TROPICAL CYCLONE is now current for coastal
areas between Port Hedland to Onslow, extending to the adjacent inland Pilbara,
including Pannawonica but not Tom Price or Paraburdoo.

The CYCLONE WARNING between Pardoo and Port Hedland and between Onslow and Coral
Bay has now been cancelled.

At 11am WST Tropical Cyclone Emma was estimated to be
125 kilometres west southwest of Karratha and
80 kilometres east northeast of Onslow and
moving south at 25 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is currently located on the coast just west of Mardie. Gales with
gusts to 90 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas between Port
Hedland and Onslow and adjacent inland parts this afternoon. Winds should ease
during the afternoon as TC Emma weakens into a tropical low.

Widespread squally thunderstorms are expected in the Pilbara ahead of the
centre, with heavy rain and flooding expected as the system moves inland. The
heavy rain and squally conditions should rapidly ease following the passage of
the cyclone centre.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Emma at 11am WST.
Location of centre : within 35 kilometres of
Latitude 21.3 South Longitude 115.8 East.
Recent movement : south at 25 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 990 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 90 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 1.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in Pilbara communities are advised that all
alerts have been lifted and to proceed with caution.

The next advice will be issued at 3pm WST Tuesday.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#30 Postby P.K. » Tue Feb 28, 2006 4:46 am

Below TC strength.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0642UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2006
CANCELLATION OF
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Emma was located over land, within 20 nautical
miles of
Latitude twenty two decimal zero degrees South [22.0S]
Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal three degrees East [116.3E]
Recent movement south southeast at 15 knots.
Maximum winds 30 knots.
Central pressure 992 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Nil.


FORECAST
Winds have eased below 34 knots.

No further warnings will be issued for this system.

WEATHER PERTH
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#31 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Feb 28, 2006 7:45 am

Image

WTXS32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMMA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 21.4S 116.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 116.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.0S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 116.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 15S
HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND. TC
15S WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH VERTI-
CAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE EFFECTS OF LAND. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPAC-
METOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENER-
ATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.


Image
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol, StPeteMike and 54 guests