Indian Ocean:Tropical Cyclone Carina

[HURAKAN]

Geez!! Maybe this one's gonna reach CAT 5!!! I wouldnt be suprised...only 10mph away!

If NRL is correct, then just 6 mph!!!

Actually thats what I meant but you know how the advisories go by 5's so the 1st number it would have as a CAT 5 is 160, not 156

That's true. I'm always so exact!!!!

[HURAKAN]

By the way, at 0000 FEB 27 UTC Carina had winds of just 90 knots, at 0000 FEB 28 UTC Carina's winds were up to 130 knots. 40 knots in 24 hours or 1.66... knots every hour.

[cheezyWXguy]

whoa...thats pretty good strengthening...in no time well have our first Super Cyclone of the season( I think its the 1st)

[HURAKAN]

whoa...thats pretty good strengthening...in no time well have our first Super Cyclone of the season( I think its the 1st)

Below Carina is Boloetse with winds near 115 mph.

[HURAKAN]

[wxmann_91]

This is my favorite type of storm... so beautiful, and not threatening any one.

EDIT: Sandy, that's a great graphic, but it's the S. Indian Ocean.

[HURAKAN]

This is my favorite type of storm... so beautiful, and not threatening any one.

Good point, in the middle of nowhere, only shipping interest. Fish, take cover!!!!

[HURAKAN]

This is my favorite type of storm... so beautiful, and not threatening any one.

EDIT: Sandy, that's a great graphic, but it's the S. Indian Ocean.

Yes, if you see, the "North Indian Ocean" title is just above the equator, and the "South Idian Ocean" is completely below the equator.

[wxmann_91]

This is my favorite type of storm... so beautiful, and not threatening any one.

EDIT: Sandy, that's a great graphic, but it's the S. Indian Ocean.

Yes, if you see, the "North Indian Ocean" title is just above the equator, and the "South Idian Ocean" is completely below the equator.

Oops, sorry! Didn't notice that!

[cheezyWXguy]

So who's gonna second me that Carina makes it to 160+?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

160 mph it appears to be heading that way. Come on become a cat5!!!

[senorpepr]

///Official bulletin: 110KT (10-min) or 125KT (US 1-min), 915mb///

BULLETIN DU 28 FEVRIER A 04H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CARINA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 915 HPA.
POSITION LE 28 FEVRIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 16.4 SUD / 79.0 EST
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2490 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 12 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 18S/77.2E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 18.9S/74.7E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 19.2S/72.5E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.


WTIO30 FMEE 280039

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/10/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)

2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 0000 UTC :
16.4S / 79.0E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 MOINS /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 17.3S/78.2E, MAX WIND=120KT, VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 18.0S/77.2E, MAX WIND=120KT, VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 18.6S/76.0E, MAX WIND=120KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.9S/74.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 19.1S/73.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.2S/72.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.5
THE SYSTEM IS TOTALLY SYMETRIC, 250NM DIAMETER, WITH A SMALL EYE OF 15 NM
DIAMETER.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS COLDER AND COLDER, SHOWING THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING,
AND THEN TO HEAD FOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES TO THE SOUTHWEST; IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[senorpepr]

160 mph it appears to be heading that way. Come on become a cat5!!!

I'm not too sure about that. Shear is increasing rather quickly and high pressure to Carina's south is affecting it pretty bad now. Maybe a little bit of strengthening, but not much.

[Derek Ortt]

question about French reporting of winds:

Why do they use 10 minutes for the Indian Ocean, but in their advisories, use 1 minute for the Atlantic? Isnt that a major descrepency, or does the Al have a designation where all winds are 1 minute and not 10 min? (I know France issues advisories for the Atl as well since there are many French Islands that are considered to be a part of the overseas departments, and not colonies)

[senorpepr]

question about French reporting of winds:

Why do they use 10 minutes for the Indian Ocean, but in their advisories, use 1 minute for the Atlantic? Isnt that a major descrepency, or does the Al have a designation where all winds are 1 minute and not 10 min? (I know France issues advisories for the Atl as well since there are many French Islands that are considered to be a part of the overseas departments, and not colonies)

I believe it depends on Metarea. The WMO standard is 10-min averages. However, the US uses a 1-min average. That has been accepted by the WMO, therefore all areas under US control uses 1-min averages. This includes the US Metarea VI, XII, and XVI.

Now... I'm not sure what France does in this situation.. I assume you are speaking about the French areas in the Caribbean. All of that territory falls under the US's Metareas. However, if I'm not mistaken, their advisories east of 35W are in 10-min averages, since that is Metarea II (France).

[P.K.]

question about French reporting of winds:

Why do they use 10 minutes for the Indian Ocean, but in their advisories, use 1 minute for the Atlantic? Isnt that a major descrepency, or does the Al have a designation where all winds are 1 minute and not 10 min? (I know France issues advisories for the Atl as well since there are many French Islands that are considered to be a part of the overseas departments, and not colonies)

The French use 10 minute averages as we do with MetArea I. However for tropical cyclones in the RSMC Miami area do they not just copy the forecast into the MetArea forecast? In that case they would just have to state they were one minute averages, unless they convert to ten minute averages.

110kts but forecast to reach 115kts.

ZCZC 180
WTIO30 FMEE 280622 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/10/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)
2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 0600 UTC :
16.5S / 78.6E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.9S/77.9E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.5S/76.9E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.6S/75.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.0S/74.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.6S/73.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
"CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, IT HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARDS
DURING THE LAST HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, THEN TO
SLOW DOWN AS THE HIGH PRESSURES STRENGTHEN IN THE SOUTHWEST.THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AT THE BEGINING OF THE RANGE.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 78.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.9S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.5S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.1S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.0S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 78.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST
WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM A DEVELOPING RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE
SYSTEM. A DEVELOPING HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN
THE POLEWARD RIDGE, CAUSING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK BY TAU 36.
INTENSITY OF TC 14S WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVOR-
ABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMMA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.



A GREAT CYCLONE!

[HURAKAN]

SHE'S MEAN!

[HURAKAN]

LOOKIN' FIERCE!!!

[cheezyWXguy]

hey check out this pic I found...it shows carina, but it looks like we may have to watch for another cyclone at 50E 27S...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reu ... erSat.html