one last Huraah for cold in S FL

[boca]

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. GFS CONTINUES ITS SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY.
IT IS ADVERTISING A REMARKABLY DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MON-WED...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA LATE MONDAY. IF ANYTHING...THIS RUN SHOWS AN EVEN STRONGER
COLD FRONT...WITH THE H85 ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM DOWN TO THE MIAMI-DADE
LINE TUE EVENING AND THE 1320 100MB-850MB THICKNESS LINE EVEN SOUTH
OF THE LAKE. THE ECMWF IS AGAIN HIGHLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS...BUT
DID TREND TO AN EAST COAST TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AGAIN...MUCH WEAKER
THROUGH. SO HOW COOL OR COLD IT WILL GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT
I WOULD NOT PUT YOUR COATS AWAY JUST YET. From Miami discussion. it could be interesting.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yea. I just read that to and yesterday's. It's the GFS and mainly it's not on the bandwagon in strength of the trof. They always talk about the GFS that is crap that far out. I don't know why. I hope it's right for one last cold spell but I'm not getting my hopes up.

[O Town]

I don't like the sounds of that discussion. I was hoping this past weekends front was going to be our last little blast. Dern.

[Scorpion]

Ugh. Ive been wanting spring to come. Please no more cold. I am so sick of it.

[boca]

DISCUSSION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE IN
STORE. THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME SHOULD PRECLUDE EVEN THE USUAL
ONSHORE MARINE SHOWERS EAST COAST ZONES. GFS MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EACH DAY RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANGES STILL LOOK INEVITABLE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT. AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
SWINGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL DRAG A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES ALWAYS A BIT DUBIOUS SO FAR OUT...HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A GOOD FROPA FOR SOUTH FLORIDA DAY 7 LOOKING BETTER ALL THE
TIME.
This is from today's discuusion and honestly since were getting into March I'm a little doubtful of this senario playing out. I would say low 50's for overnight lows. Nothing out of the ordinary because yesterday's 850 line according to the GFS was over Miami Dade county which would mean 30's like we had back a couple of weeks ago.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Agreed Boca and of course GFS is backing off some. More in the way of shifted east then of strength of the trough.:http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=MFL&StateCode=FL&SafeCityName=Fort_Lauderdale

[Scorpion]

Heard that the trough was now shifting east so the lows should be the mid 50's at lowest.

[HURRICANELONNY]

What makes me laugh is that when you read the NWS discussion many days out . Some NWS employees really beleive the GFS. We all know that the GFS is good for s--t that far out and this proves it.http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayD ... Lauderdale

[boca]

It's funny now their predicting low 60's at night and low 80's so no cold front. Winter is now over. Lets bring on some rain too dry.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Weak La Nina. I think it's going to be a bad fire season.

[Patrick99]

Yeah, I remember reading those discussions - to their credit, though, they really backed off on that major frontal passage.

The chances of a big cold front passage diminish every day. I think this is pretty much it for our winter. We'll probably get a couple of "dry fronts" that do nothing but dry things out and bring slightly cooler temps....but my guess is that we are done. I just get that feeling that the high is digging in, as it so often does this time of year.

[HURRICANELONNY]

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... ort_Lauder


has the gfs ever been close to right in day 7??????

[Patrick99]

Yeah...we'll see about that GFS 7-day "strong cold front." I think the GFS believes it's January 16, not March 16.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree on that it is looking more like summer...

[Patrick99]

Miami AFD backs off on "strong cold front" Tuesday.....though perhaps a couple kinks in the subtropical jet late next week, bringing us a little rain. That would be nice....though I'm not going to bet on that, either.

:::AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY FRONTS TO BRING NOTICEABLY
COOLER AIR INTO OUR ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE REMANENTS OF THE LAST FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR ZONES IS STILL OVER THE AREA IT IS VERY DIFFUSE
AND PRODUCING NOTHING IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
MAKE A PUSH SOUTHWARD IS IN THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND MOVING EAST RATHER RAPIDLY SO THIS FRONT WILL BE
HARD PRESSED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR SOUTH. BY MID WEEK ANOTHER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT AND AGAIN PUSH IT
TOWARD OUR ZONES. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT FROM MAKING IT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
INSTEAD IT SHOULD STALL PROBABLY JUST AROUND THE LAKE. WE ARE
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS FOR ABOUT A WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME UPPER WAVE COULD MOVE ALONG THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE NEXT
WEEK AND TRY TO DEVELOP SOME SURFACE WAVE ON THE STATIONARY FRONT.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS WILL
GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN AWHILE. AT THIS TIME WE WILL
BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. HOWEVER
THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE WILL BE WITH THE SURFACE WAVE WHICH IS DUE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADJUST THIS
TIMING BASED UPON WHERE THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEXT WEEK.

[boca]

I posted the same thing in talking tropics board.

[gatorcane]

yep that upper ridge that is been around for months is drying everything up...but this front looks like it will be quite a cool down for us....upper 40s away from the coast of South Florida this weekend....low to mid 50s along the water...

there were some 90s showing up at some observations around S. Florida today

[Scorpion]

Quite a cool shot, but should be the last one. It got very cold well into April last year.

[O Town]

Everytime I think its over, he comes another blast. The weather HAS been perfect for camping, warm days and cool nights. So we were gonna go to Jetta Park(Cocoa Beach/Cape Canveral) this weekend to camp and now its saying low 40's So now we may go were there is no water, and we can make a fire. I am done with this cold stuff I really hope this is the last hooraah.

[JonathanBelles]

i'm hoping for 50 here