Most Damaging Hurricanes

[Scorpion]

I cannot imagine a Cat 4 or 5 making landfall in the Palm Beach area. The housing of course is insanely expensive, so if the surge reaches the barrier island homes that would easily make the damage billions with those homes alone. Not to mention Jupiter Island.

[MiamiensisWx]

As bad as a hit in the West Palm Beach/Palm Beach area (and a direct hit on Miami) would be, I think Fort Lauderdale is a much more likely (and unfortunately more destructive) landfall point. If a fairly large major hurricane that is moving slower than Andrew were to strike Fort Lauderdale, it would destroy some of the most expensive and rich housing (Las Olas) in all of southeast Florida. Also, many new apartments/oceanfront condos are being built in Fort Lauderdale/Pompano Beach/Lauderhill/Lauderdale-by-the-Sea. On top of that, it would badly affect both Palm Beach County and the city of Miami at the same time while moving into the heart of Broward County. On top of that, Broward County has a high population of minorities, many who live in poor communities along Dixie Highway that stretches in a band starting from Pompano Beach south through Hollywood and Hialeah. Many of the homes in those poor communities are virtually junk and would not stand up well even to Category One/Category Two winds. Imagine if a major hurricane were to rip through Fort Lauderdale, which is the heart of these poor communities in the Broward/Miami-Dade area. Those poor communities would be devastated. Also, a storm moving into Fort Lauderdale will likely pass south of Lake Okeechobee, causing heavy destruction in those farming communities as well. A major southeast Florida port/tourist hub to the Bahamas and other areas - Port Everglades - would also be severely impacted, crushing southeast Florida's heavy reliance on tourism and other factors. Who agrees with all these points?

Here is the scenario I am thinking of (I chose Florence as a hypothetical name)...

A tropical wave exits the African coastline. It is August... the ripe time for the Cape Verde storms to blossom. Convection in the wave starts to fire and deepen once it gets established in the warm, salty waters off the African coastline that stretch all the way to the Bahamas and Gulf of Mexico, increasing along the wave's path further to the west. The blossoming system is upgraded to a tropical depression. The circulation and outflow is becoming better organized in an extremely favorable environment as the depression passes south of the Cape Verde Islands. The tradewinds are gently nudging the wave along, with only some slight shear over the depression's northern semicircle. Deep convection fires right in near the center; the depression is now a tropical storm just to the west-southwest to southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is christened Florence.

Florence moves to the west-northwest to northwest, quickly strengthening into an 85MPH Category One hurricane. Due west of the Cape Verde Islands and near 35W, Florence turns more to the west, strengthening into a 95MPH Category Two hurricane. Florence continues to move nearly due west now, continuing to strengthen. Near 45W, Florence becomes a Category Three (major) hurricane, starting to take aim at the Leeward Islands. Florence continues to become better organized, rapidly strengthening into a 145MPH Category Four hurricane to the east of the Leeward Islands. With favorable conditions throughout it's life, Florence has fluctuations mainly due to ERCs. Florence continues westward, ploughing into the Leeward Islands as a high-end Category Four hurricane with sustained winds of 145MPH to 150MPH. Many of the islands are severely devastated, receiving very severe destruction. Florence continues westward to west-northwestward, charging into Puerto Rico with winds of at least 145MPH. The eye passes near or over San Juan (I hope you don't feel bad, cycloneye). The island suffers damage just as severe to catastrophic as the Leeward Islands, receiving the worst storm since 1928. Several deaths are reported in the Leewards and Puerto Rico.

Florence passes over Puerto Rico, turning more to the northwest and bypassing Hispaniola. However, the outer bands cause severe flooding, and over 1,000 deaths occur in Haiti and - primarily - the Dominican Republic. Florence maintains it strength, with winds of at least 145MPH, and turns slightly more to the west, ploughing through and severely devastating the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category Four hurricane and 145MPH winds. It is now passing over extremely warm waters and making a beeline for southeast Florida. It is clear - the southeast U.S. coast needs to WATCH OUT.

Florence continues it's march through the Bahamas, heading west-northwest at 12MPH to 14MPH, maintaining it's strength outstandingly well. Hurricane warnings are placed for the northwest and central Bahamas and southeast Florida. Florence passes near Nassau, causing heavy to very severe destruction on New Providence Island. Florence then roars across Andros Island, pounding the island. After blasting the Bimini Islands, Florence aims all it's strength at the southeast Florida coast. After over 40 years, Palm Beach and Broward counties are staring down the barrel of a major hurricane from the east. The time was here. A storm, already devastating in the Caribbean and Bahamas, was about to arrive wuth fury.

Larger and slightly slower - and with a larger eye - than Andrew, Florence struck Fort Lauderdale as a Category Four with sustained winds of at least 145MPH. Severe to catastrophic destruction is caused to buildings. Damages reach well over $50 billion, and around 40 people are killed in Florida. Florence curves up along the west coast of Florida, and moves with ebbing strength through the eastern U.S.

Nobody will forget Florence!

Sorry if this post upsets many... I just think something like this is very possible and may happen very, very soon... any thoughts?

Here is the track of the storm and a map of the area that would be likely affected by a disaster like this...




Here would be the end results...

-Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico/Bahamas devastated
-Over 1,000 deaths in Caribbean (especially in Hispaniola, devastated by flooding from the storm's outer bands)
-Millions of dollars (and likely billions in U.S. dollars) of damage/destruction in Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico/Bahamas
-Tourism business to Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico/Bahamas crushed (this badly affects Florida as well)
-Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic) once again thrown into chaos
-Building and land booms in Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico/Bahamas shattered, further devastating the Caribbean
-Over $100 billion in damages in Florida alone
-Southeast Florida devastated by storm's large windfield
-Southeast Florida tourism in chaos/jeapordy
-Storm's large size results in very high tides along the entire southeast Florida coast, much like the September 1947 storm; sand fills A1A
-One of the most expensive stretches of Florida coastline (Las Olas/Fort Lauderdale/Pompano Beach/Lauderdale-by-the-Sea) devastated; expensive condos shattered
-Palm Beach County just to the north and Hollywood/Miami just to the south both severely affected by storm's large windfield
-Poor minority communities with poor housing construction in southeast Florida devastated from Palm Beach County to Miami-Dade County; storm strikes heart of this belt of poor communities (Fort Lauderdale area)
-Communities south of Lake Okeechobee hit hard as storm moves inland; heavy to ver severe crop/sugar damage

This would be only a few of the effects. This would be one of the most likely - and worst - scenarios ever.

Any thoughts? Who agrees?

[JtSmarts]

OT: CapeVerdeWave I love your "Katrina??" avatar, I've never seen that picture before.

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks, JTSmarts! Actually, it's an image of Ivan from 2004.

What do you think about my scenario above?

[Audrey2Katrina]

Betsy came in during one of those Atlantic cycles (tail-end I think); regardless, it re-wrote the books, damage wise, in becoming the first billion dollar storm, but just four seasons later and along came Camille. Granted, in adjusted totals Betsy barely nudges out Camille, but the latter killed more people. I believe it took many years before monsters like Hugo came along and really stretched the figures, and then came Andrew which was THE benchmark for damages for some 13 years. One can only hope that the storm that surpasses Katrina (and sadly that is, as with all record-setters, only a matter of time) is a LOT more than that 4 year window away. Scary, though, because given the activity of the last two seasons, it could be even closer...

Praying that isn't so.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

You also have to take into consideration the increase in population and wealth. Taking those two into consideration yields no real trend in hurricane damage since 1900

I've seen those charts taking into effects the demographics and population/income variables. When I saw it last I believe it said something like the Fla. Keys storm (the one that held the record for lowest barometric intensity at landfall) was the one topping the list... just staggering in the figures it suggested, were that to happen today.

A2K

[Scorpion]

The absolute worst case scenario for South Florida is a rapidly strengthening Cat 4/5 making landfall, ala Andrew. In strengthening systems, the strongest winds penetrate much further inland than steady or weakening systems. Also, the winds would likely be much stronger for the tall buildings as well.

[JtSmarts]

Thanks, JTSmarts! Actually, it's an image of Ivan from 2004.

What do you think about my scenario above?

I think the scenario, could happen, hopefully it never will. To make it more realistic I would have the storm alternate between Cat 3 and 4 and maybe 5 as it tracked through the Atlantic, just because it is hard for storm to remain one category for a long period of time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the 40 person death toll would be too low. With a larger eye and a slower motion than Andrew...wind damage will be much more severe and reach further inland and up the coast. Also, the storm surge would be far greater. This storm would likely kill 75+ (Depending on amount of evacuations, exact surge height, and exact inland winds).

[ROCK]

200,000 for a house on a barrier island? In MIA, you cannot buy a condo for that price

Cost of living is great down here......

[ROCK]

Not sure where that 200,000 house in Galveston is. I'll tell you it's not on the beach. The latest development on the West end has condos in the 1000 to 1500sq ft range going for over 500k.

We are on the bay side right up against the main drag. Terramar.. Parents bought a lot for 8k in 2001 and turn it for 25k last year. True, there is a lot of homes 500k and up including Clay Walkers house. Point is, a lot of developement to be crushed if a bad 3+ came over Galveston....

[vbhoutex]

Not sure where that 200,000 house in Galveston is. I'll tell you it's not on the beach. The latest development on the West end has condos in the 1000 to 1500sq ft range going for over 500k.

We are on the bay side right up against the main drag. Terramar.. Parents bought a lot for 8k in 2001 and turn it for 25k last year. True, there is a lot of homes 500k and up including Clay Walkers house. Point is, a lot of developement to be crushed if a bad 3+ came over Galveston....

That is an understatement!!!! My firm is doing the engineering for a huge development at San Luis Pass. I believe there are over a thousand homes going to go in there and I think the costs will all be over 500k!!! DOESN'T MAKE SENSE TO ME!!!!

[AussieMark]

the average condo is about 300K here. The average house is over 400K. Maybe MIA is not the place for me to sae my $$

I am quite thankful Sydney does not get CYclone strikes

the average house cost here in a report last week said was around $550K

thats around $440K US

[MiamiensisWx]

The absolute worst case scenario for South Florida is a rapidly strengthening Cat 4/5 making landfall, ala Andrew. In strengthening systems, the strongest winds penetrate much further inland than steady or weakening systems. Also, the winds would likely be much stronger for the tall buildings as well.

I disagree. Most storms in recent years that were rapidly strengthening before Florida landfalls have been midgets (take Charley and Andrew as examples). A larger storm would create larger coastal waves/overwash/erosion, a larger area of wind damage from a larger windfield, and potentially just as much - if not more - damage totals in billions than smaller storms.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The absolute worst case scenario for South Florida is a rapidly strengthening Cat 4/5 making landfall, ala Andrew. In strengthening systems, the strongest winds penetrate much further inland than steady or weakening systems. Also, the winds would likely be much stronger for the tall buildings as well.

I disagree. Most storms in recent years that were rapidly strengthening before Florida landfalls have been midgets (take Charley and Andrew as examples). A larger storm would create larger coastal waves/overwash/erosion, a larger area of wind damage from a larger windfield, and potentially just as much - if not more - damage totals in billions than smaller storms.

But if a Cat. 5 midget hit downtown Miami directly, then it would be much worse than if a large Cat. 3 hit the area. Smaller storms tend to produce sharper gusts as well which result in even further damage. The winds from that kind of impact could get up to the threshold of serious structural (beyond repairable) damage to many Miami skyscrapers. The wind damage in downtown Miami would be to the level of many areas having to be completely demolished and rebuilt from scratch (including some skyscrapers).

[MiamiensisWx]

True, Extremeweatherguy... however, I was just making a point that a larger storm would affect a larger portion of the general population.

[JtSmarts]

It seems to me the absolute worse would be a large hurricane ala Katrina that was strengthing at landfall similar to Wilma but at a faster rate.

[AussieMark]

the adjusted list is incorrect

Only inflation was acocunted for. You also have to take into consideration the increase in population and wealth. Taking those two into consideration yields no real trend in hurricane damage since 1900

so true

Adjusted to 2004 currency, population and Wealth Normalization the top 30 looks as follows


01 SE Florida/Alabama (1926) $101.9 Billion
02 Andrew (1992) $43.2 Billion
03 N Texas (1900) $37.5 Billion
04 N Texas (1915) $31.8 Billion
05 SW Florida (1944) $23.8 Billion
06 New England (1938) $23.5 Billion
07 SE Florida/Lake Okeechobee (1928) $19.5 Billion
08 Betsy (1965) $17.5 Billion
09 Donna (1960) $16.9 Billion
10 Camille (1969) $15.5 Billion
11 Agnes (1972) $15.1 Billion
12 Charley (2004) $15 Billion
13 Diane (1955) $14.4 Billion
14 Ivan (2004) $14.2 Billion
15 Hugo (1989) $13.2 Billion
16 Carol (1954) $12.8 Billion
17 SE Florida/Alabama/Louisiana (1947) $11.7 Billion
18 Carla (1961) $9.9 Billion
19 Hazel (1954) $9.9 Billion
20 NE US (1944) $9.1 Billion
21 SE Florida (1945) $8.9 billion
22 Frances (2004) $8.9 Billion
23 Frederic (1979) $8.8 Billion
24 SE Florida (1949) $8.2 Billion
25 S Texas (1919) $7.5 Billion
26 Jeanne (2004) $6.9 Billion
27 Allison (2001) $6.2 Billion
28 Alicia (1983) $5.7 Billion
29 Floyd (1999) $5.4 Billion
30 Celia (1970) $4.7 Billion)

[AussieMark]

It seems to me the absolute worse would be a large hurricane ala Katrina that was strengthing at landfall similar to Wilma but at a faster rate.

What about a 1947 SE Florida type hurricane that could be a bad scenario

[wxman57]

even with adjustment, Katrina is going to be #1 when all is said and done. What it did is slightly worse than the 1926 Miami/Pensacola hurricane did (that one caused about 80 adjusted in Miami, and 10-15 in Pensacola)

I believe Chris Landsea adjusted his list in 2003 and the Great Miami hurricane of 1926 was at about $98 billion if the same hurricane hit there today.

If you want to see some really fascinating numbers, go here and use the "Coastal Population" tool

http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Pick any coastal county and generate a JPEG image of population by decade from 1900-2005 with an overlay of hurricane impact times. Note the tremendous growth in all the FL counties from the 1960s to present - just the exact period when the hurricanes had temporarily stopped hitting them. Check out Lee and Broward County, for example. They were clobbered by one major hurricane after another when nobody was living there.

That site also has an EXCELLENT past hurricane plotting tool.

Better yet, here's what I got for Broward Co., FL: