Washington DC Snow 3/12-16th...east coast?

[beachbum_al]

I am interested in this because dh is flying to DC next week with work.

[WindRunner]

The GFS shows a fantasy east-coast storm in the March 12-16th time frame. However, assuming it occurs! it will not add another point to the study unless its track changes, as alas, it is currently an interior storm.

Well, when was the last time you saw the GFS nail a forecast made in the 192hr+ time range? Of course the track is going to change, and anything could happen to that storm over the next 2 weeks. It could disappear, move out to sea, move inland, appear weaker or appear stronger. I'm actually thinking that the fact that the GFS shows the storm now is a bad sign for Jim's forecast, seeing as these storms usually disappear by the time they get down around the 10 day time frame. But I'll guess we have to wait and see . . .

It does not surprise me if the models are forecasting something this far out. I usually tell people that this is why I make these long range forecasts so far out in advance. So that you pay heed to what the models are saying if they are calling for a similar event.

This event is not written in stone by any means but I would strongly suggest that we give their extended outlooks a little bit more weight this time. Even this far out.


Jim

Oh, don't worry Jim, I'm with you here, we could see something, maybe even big (especialy since the mets are now calling for the storm this coming Monday-Tuesday to be too far off the coast for anything) from the way the models are showing. I was just mentioning how usually the time frame will shift around a few days either side of what the models initially forecast at this range, which could shift the storm right out of your window, or more into it.

Out of curiosity, does anyone remember if the models were showing a big storm for the Blizzard of 06 during the initial long-range runs? Or did it really stay under radar until 3 days out?

[Jim Hughes]

Oh, don't worry Jim, I'm with you here, we could see something, maybe even big (especialy since the mets are now calling for the storm this coming Monday-Tuesday to be too far off the coast for anything) from the way the models are showing. I was just mentioning how usually the time frame will shift around a few days either side of what the models initially forecast at this range, which could shift the storm right out of your window, or more into it.

Out of curiosity, does anyone remember if the models were showing a big storm for the Blizzard of 06 during the initial long-range runs? Or did it really stay under radar until 3 days out?

I never use the models for any outlook so I can not tell you what they were exactly saying last month but I do recall some posts over at easternuswx in which people were talking about another storm preceding the big one. That storm never did occur.

I believe the the big storm started being picked up about 3-4 days earlier. I recall some posts where some people weren't given it much credence since they had just screwed up the prior storm.

We all know what happened. Could this be a repeatable scenario? Time will tell. Let's see what happens with next weeks storm . I see the confidence about that storm's potential has been changing the past 24 hours.



Jim