SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[cheezyWXguy]

alrite im new at this so can anyone tell me in basic words wether its looking like it will be an El Nino year or a La Nina or a nuetral

[JonathanBelles]

heading for a weak nuetral year i think

[MiamiensisWx]

I think a La Nina, but a very weak one at most.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think a La Nina, but a very weak one at most.

true dat...thats what I was thinking

[cycloneye]

The latest update of the Pacific anomalys show the weak La Nina hanging on despite a small warm pocket that is located close to the SouthAmerican coast.



In the Atlantic side no big changes from last weeks data with scattered pockets of warm and cool anomalys in the Atlantic.Still persists the area of warm anomalies in the GOM.



Above is the graphic of the GOM and the loop current.Also you can see how the Gulfstream waters are.

[ROCK]

The loop current looks healthy. You can definitely tell where Kat and Rita got there fuel from.

[cycloneye]

The above graphic at this page which shows the Pacific anomalies indicate a bit more stronger La Nina than in the past 2 weeks if you look at the numbers of between -1.0c to -1.5c.Those yellows indicating warm anomalies are almost gone at el Nino 1-2 area.

[MiamiensisWx]

I still think the La Nina will weaken by summer, resulting in a weak La Nina. The main reason I think so is because of how long the La Nina has been here and how prone to fluctuations it is.

[f5]

the loop current extends all the way to the SE louisiana coast if that hangs on by August&September and another Katrina comes along N.O may finally get the REAL worst case scenario

[windycity]

I hear ya, the loop looks bigger than iv ever seen it, plus with the SSTs in the NGOM ,scary thought.

[f5]

N.O can't afford another Hurricane like the one in CapeVerdeWave's avatar.worst case scenario means from 1 storm but when its one after the other like Flordia been experienceing it becomes a psychological nightmere .NO officals don't want to have to keep pumping and repumping water out of the city every single time a Katrina or Rita type storm comes roaring through the GOM

[f5]

notice the loop current extends to the SE louisiana coast that tounge of deep warm water stretches along exactly the worst case scenario track for N.O the ESE

[Scorpion]

I still think the La Nina will weaken by summer, resulting in a weak La Nina. The main reason I think so is because of how long the La Nina has been here and how prone to fluctuations it is.

La Nina hasnt been there for awhile. There is nothing out there that will automatically cause the anomolies to go up. If anything it will likely be stronger.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think La Nina has been here since October... it just was not "officially" designated as a La Nina until January. Also, it is too early to say that it won't weaken.

[cycloneye]

it is too early to say that it won't weaken.

Yes CapeVerdeWave it's too early to say for sure what will the ENSO conditions be when the hurricane season reaches it's peak although some ENSO models haved predicted a return to Neutral conditions.We have to wait around 2-3 months to see how the anomalies are doing and then we can make our analysis about this factor.

[Seele]

It's kind of interesting looking at the SST anomalies compared to a year ago, even though it really doesn't mean much this far out. Not much difference in the Atlantic but overall a bit cooler this year. Also notice there was a warm spot in the GoM last year too. It was a little weaker and a bit further east.

[AussieMark]

I think La Nina has been here since October... it just was not "officially" designated as a La Nina until January. Also, it is too early to say that it won't weaken.

to be La Nina the anomality index has to be at least -0.5C I think

in August it was 0.0C
in September it was 0.0C
in October it was -0.2C
in November it was -0.4C
in December it was -0.7C

so technically December was the start of it

[cycloneye]

It's kind of interesting looking at the SST anomalies compared to a year ago, even though it really doesn't mean much this far out. Not much difference in the Atlantic but overall a bit cooler this year. Also notice there was a warm spot in the GoM last year too. It was a little weaker and a bit further east.

Yes I agree about the Atlantic Basin especially between Africa and the Lesser Antilles not being as warm as last year by this time.Let's see if this trend holds up as we enter the summer months.

[MiamiensisWx]

The La Nina has weakened in it's western reaches west of and near 180W. Look how much that area continues to warm up! Notice that?

[cycloneye]

The La Nina has weakened in it's western reaches west of and near 180W. Look how much that area continues to warm up! Notice that?

CapeVerdeWave I think you saw the 2005 graphic above where it shows up that way.The 2006 one is the first one of the 2 graphics posted and shows a different data.