Indian Ocean:Tropical Cyclone Carina
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
90kts, 940hPa.
WTIO20 FMEE 011224
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 76.6E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO
230 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30
NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 00 UTC:
18.2S / 75.2E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP..
24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 12 UTC:
18.6S / 73.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP..
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE
NORTHERN AND HAS PROBABLY NOT VEERED SOUTHWARDS AS THE 0600UTC WARNING
SHOWED BUT KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT
SPEEDING UP.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPLODED LAST NIGHT AND "CARINA" IS WEAKENED RAPIDLY.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING
BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND COULD ALSO VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WTIO30 FMEE 011224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/10/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)
2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 76.6E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.5 /W 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.2S/75.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.6S/73.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 18.8S/72.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 18.7S/71.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.5S/70.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 AND CI=5.5
TRMM MICROWAVES IMAGERY AT 0812UTC SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
TOTALLY EXPOSED AND LOCATED AT 17.3S/77.1E. LLCC HAS BEEN CONSEQUENTLY
RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN AND HAS PROBABLY NOT VEERED SOUTHWARDS AS THE
0600UTC WARNING SHOWED BUT KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A
LITTLE BIT SPEED
ING UP.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPLODED LAST NIGHT AND "CARINA" IS WEAKENED RAPIDLY.
SEVERAL REASONS TO EXPLAIN THIS FACT :
- THE MAIN REASON IS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED
DURING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS.
- DURING THIS VERY SLOWLY TRACK, SYSTEM HAS PROBABLY CONSUMED ITS
ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER A NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY EXISTING SOUTH OF 16S BETWEEN 75E AND 82E.
- LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOW INDIRECT.
- SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING WESTWARD A DRYER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REVEALED BY
INDOEX WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING
BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND COULD ALSO VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
BEYOND 36 HEURES, NWP MODELS DIFFER ON THE FORECASTED TRACK.
WTIO20 FMEE 011224
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 76.6E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO
230 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30
NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 00 UTC:
18.2S / 75.2E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP..
24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 12 UTC:
18.6S / 73.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP..
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE
NORTHERN AND HAS PROBABLY NOT VEERED SOUTHWARDS AS THE 0600UTC WARNING
SHOWED BUT KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT
SPEEDING UP.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPLODED LAST NIGHT AND "CARINA" IS WEAKENED RAPIDLY.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING
BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND COULD ALSO VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WTIO30 FMEE 011224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/10/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)
2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 76.6E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.5 /W 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.2S/75.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.6S/73.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 18.8S/72.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 18.7S/71.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.5S/70.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 AND CI=5.5
TRMM MICROWAVES IMAGERY AT 0812UTC SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
TOTALLY EXPOSED AND LOCATED AT 17.3S/77.1E. LLCC HAS BEEN CONSEQUENTLY
RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN AND HAS PROBABLY NOT VEERED SOUTHWARDS AS THE
0600UTC WARNING SHOWED BUT KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A
LITTLE BIT SPEED
ING UP.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPLODED LAST NIGHT AND "CARINA" IS WEAKENED RAPIDLY.
SEVERAL REASONS TO EXPLAIN THIS FACT :
- THE MAIN REASON IS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED
DURING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS.
- DURING THIS VERY SLOWLY TRACK, SYSTEM HAS PROBABLY CONSUMED ITS
ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER A NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY EXISTING SOUTH OF 16S BETWEEN 75E AND 82E.
- LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOW INDIRECT.
- SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING WESTWARD A DRYER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REVEALED BY
INDOEX WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING
BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND COULD ALSO VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
BEYOND 36 HEURES, NWP MODELS DIFFER ON THE FORECASTED TRACK.
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
I even looked at the French version and yes the translation looks correct. 
WTIO30 FMEE 011754
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/10/20052006
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)
2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 76.3E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/5.0 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.5S/75.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/74.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.1S/73.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 19.2S/71.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 19.3S/70.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.9S/69.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5. CI=5.0-.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A
LITTLE BIT SPEEDING UP.
SEVERAL REASONS TO EXPLAIN THIS FACT :
- THE MAIN REASON IS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED
DURING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS.
- DURING THIS VERY SLOWLY TRACK, SYSTEM HAS PROBABLY CONSUMED ITS
ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER A NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY EXISTING SOUTH OF 16S BETWEEN 75E AND 82E.
- LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOW INDIRECT.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GON ON SOUTHWESTWARDS TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND THEN VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING ON THE FORECASTED RANGE.
WTIO30 FMEE 011754
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/10/20052006
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)
2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 76.3E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/5.0 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.5S/75.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/74.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.1S/73.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 19.2S/71.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 19.3S/70.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.9S/69.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5. CI=5.0-.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A
LITTLE BIT SPEEDING UP.
SEVERAL REASONS TO EXPLAIN THIS FACT :
- THE MAIN REASON IS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED
DURING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS.
- DURING THIS VERY SLOWLY TRACK, SYSTEM HAS PROBABLY CONSUMED ITS
ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER A NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY EXISTING SOUTH OF 16S BETWEEN 75E AND 82E.
- LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOW INDIRECT.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GON ON SOUTHWESTWARDS TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND THEN VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING ON THE FORECASTED RANGE.
0 likes
-
Coredesat
-
joe_koehle
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 61
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 10:26 pm
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
70kts, 965hPa
BULLETIN DU 02 MARS A 10H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************
NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL CARINA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 965 HPA.
POSITION LE 02 MARS A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 19.3 SUD / 78.0 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2320 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 16 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 20.8S/78.9E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 20.5S/76E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 19.8S/72.5E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
BULLETIN DU 02 MARS A 10H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************
NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL CARINA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 965 HPA.
POSITION LE 02 MARS A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 19.3 SUD / 78.0 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2320 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 16 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 20.8S/78.9E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 20.5S/76E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 19.8S/72.5E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
0 likes
-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
55kts, 980hPa
BULLETIN DU 02 MARS A 16H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************
NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CARINA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 980 HPA.
POSITION LE 02 MARS A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 19.5 SUD / 77.0 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2210 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19S/74.3E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 18.2S/71.5E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 17.5S/68E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
BULLETIN DU 02 MARS A 16H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************
NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CARINA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 980 HPA.
POSITION LE 02 MARS A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 19.5 SUD / 77.0 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2210 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19S/74.3E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 18.2S/71.5E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 17.5S/68E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
0 likes
-
Coredesat
WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 78.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 78.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.9S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.9S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 78.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 14S HAS BEGUN THE EARLY STAGES OF BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION WITHIN 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNING AT 022100Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 78.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 78.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.9S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.9S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 78.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 14S HAS BEGUN THE EARLY STAGES OF BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION WITHIN 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNING AT 022100Z.//
0 likes
-
Coredesat
Final advisory by the JTWC:
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 016
WTXS31 PGTW 022100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 77.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 77.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.2S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.7S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 77.2E.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON
ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET.
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 016
WTXS31 PGTW 022100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 77.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 77.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.2S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.7S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 77.2E.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON
ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET.
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
40kts
BULLETIN DU 03 MARS A 04H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************
NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CARINA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 994 HPA.
POSITION LE 03 MARS A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 18.6 SUD / 77.7 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2300 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST A 14 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 16.9S/76.4E
SE DISSIPANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.2S/74.2E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
BULLETIN DU 03 MARS A 04H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************
NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CARINA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 994 HPA.
POSITION LE 03 MARS A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 18.6 SUD / 77.7 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2300 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST A 14 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 16.9S/76.4E
SE DISSIPANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.2S/74.2E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
0 likes
-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
///Official: 35kt (10-min or 40kt US 1-min); 997mb///
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CARINA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 997 HPA.
POSITION LE 03 MARS A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 18.9 SUD / 78.7 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2400 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST A 11 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 16.8S/78.1E
DISSIPE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 13.8S/75.8E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN ACTUALISE A 13H30
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CARINA
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 997 HPA.
POSITION LE 03 MARS A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 18.9 SUD / 78.7 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2400 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST A 11 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 16.8S/78.1E
DISSIPE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 13.8S/75.8E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN ACTUALISE A 13H30
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: riapal and 76 guests