Tropical Depression Basyang at WPAC

[cycloneye]

That's the problem when you have a bunch of agencies and no one is in agreement on what to do with tropical cyclones. I think they should all meet and agree on what terms they will define tropical depressions, storms, and typhoons. Therefore, it will be much less confusing for the general public!

Agree.Like NHC which is only one agencie that has the responsability for the Atlantic and EPAC.

[P.K.]

I like the confusion personally. Most of the general public don't follow worldwide TC activity though, they'll just follow their own basin so I don't see a problem.

[P.K.]

What they should do is let JMA act as the role of a RSMC and produce the only official advisories on WPAC storms. Other agencies, such as the CMA or KMA will translate the JMA advisories with no additional forecasting involved for the system.

I was just looking at the KMA and there is nothing on there.

[HURAKAN]

I like the confusion personally. Most of the general public don't follow worldwide TC activity though, they'll just follow their own basin so I don't see a problem.

Maybe the general public was an exaggeration in my part, but at least it will be less confusing for the meteorological enthusiastic community like us!

[HURAKAN]

If that thing named Grace in 2003 was a tropical storm, then Invest 93W has a good chance of already being a tropical storm!!!

[P.K.]

Maybe the general public was an exaggeration in my part, but at least it will be less confusing for the meteorological enthusiastic community like us!

I like the way I have to find things on different pages, that they are in different formats, and have different classifications etc. If it was all in one place it would be too easy.

[cycloneye]

Certainly it looks better organized than earlier this morning our time.I would not be surprised if JTWC jumps on the bandwagon of Tropical Depression before this day is out here in the western hemisphere.

[HURAKAN]

Maybe the general public was an exaggeration in my part, but at least it will be less confusing for the meteorological enthusiastic community like us!

I like the way I have to find things on different pages, that they are in different formats, and have different classifications etc. If it was all in one place it would be too easy.

OK, IT CLEARLY SEEMS OUR OPINIONS ARE VERY DISSIMILAR!

[James]

If that thing named Grace in 2003 was a tropical storm, then Invest 93W has a good chance of already being a tropical storm!!!

LOL, agreed! Based upon appearance alone, it seems that Chanchu isn't all that far away.

[cycloneye]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.03.2006



TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

4.0N 137.5E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 03.03.2006 4.0N 137.5E WEAK

00UTC 04.03.2006 4.0N 138.5E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.03.2006 3.9N 139.2E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.03.2006 3.5N 139.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.03.2006 3.5N 140.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.03.2006 3.5N 140.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.03.2006 3.5N 140.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.03.2006 3.9N 139.7E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.03.2006 4.9N 138.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.03.2006 6.3N 136.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.03.2006 8.0N 135.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.03.2006 9.1N 134.1E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.03.2006 9.4N 133.7E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


12 UTC UKMET.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No quastion that is a tropical depression or a tropical storm. Nice cdo and banding...Really nice may I say!

[James]

JTWC has issued a TCFA:

WTPN21 PGTW 032030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/032021ZMAR2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.0N 138.5E TO 6.1N 136.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 031730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 138.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 5.1N 138.2E, APPROXIMATELY
120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION
OVER A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS IN-
CREASED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE AREA IS UNDER LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC
850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. DUE TO A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATION OF BOTH THE LLCC AND
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
042030Z.//

[cycloneye]

[P.K.]

From the JMA at 1800 GMT:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 05N 138E WNW SLOWLY.

From the CMA at 1800 GMT:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006HPA AT 06N 137E MOVING WEST SLOWLY=

[cycloneye]

From the JMA at 1800 GMT:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 05N 138E WNW SLOWLY.

From the CMA at 1800 GMT:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006HPA AT 06N 137E MOVING WEST SLOWLY=

P.K What is the TD #?

[P.K.]

Only tropical storms get numbers in this region so no number.

[cycloneye]

Only tropical storms get numbers in this region so no number.

Oh ok thank you.

[cycloneye]

03/2033 UTC 5.8N 138.2E T2.0/2.0 93W -- West Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

The latest JMA surface data shows TD status for 93W.

[cycloneye]

NRL just changed to 1W NONAME.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi