New England?

[wxwatcher91]

hey what can I say? Im a desperate New Englander!

will New England get hit this year? TS? Hurricane? MH??!

I dont know, but if it has anything to do with being "due", we will get one! lol

[wxmann_91]

I'd say Tropical Storm.

Nothing - very unlikely.
Leftovers - possible, probably my second choice
Hurricane & Major - likely to occur in inactive years where there are more fronts that stall and wash out over the western Atlantic, those are the situations that favor New England landfalls, but upcoming year won't be as Homegrown, will be probably more CV.

[gatorcane]

no way new england....too far north. If anything hits maybe a weak CAT 1....you will get more from a winter-time Low.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Leftovers--possibly after a pass through the Carolina area... no direct hits.

A2K

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Actually being so far North is not the main prohibiting factor here, it is the fact that you need quite a rare set up to bring them here. You need a storm sandwiched in just the right position usually between a departing High and an approaching trough. There have been cat. 3, and possibly even more intense, storms that have effected the region in the past, thus it is by no means impossible.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

While on this topic here is a link to a webcaste that I'm sure many here will find rather interesting:


http://meted.ucar.edu/norlat/ett/index.htm


Storms that are covered in it include:


1. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (actually it is also in the surface loop at the mainpage)


2. The "Saxby Gale" of 1869 (the second of two possible major hurricanes to effect the NE)


2. Hurricane Agnes of 1972 (inland flooding in Pen, and rest of NE)


3. Hurricane Hazel of 1954 (inland flooding in Toronto)



PS I helped with some of the research for this project.

[Jim Cantore]

a cat 5 will hit maine

[senorpepr]

a cat 5 will hit maine

That's the silliest thing I've heard this week.

[Jim Cantore]

a cat 5 will hit maine

That's the silliest thing I've heard this week.

then it will hit iceland with winds at 190mph

[senorpepr]

a cat 5 will hit maine

That's the silliest thing I've heard this week.

then it will hit iceland with winds at 190mph

Now... that's just plain goofy.

[Jim Cantore]

a cat 5 will hit maine

That's the silliest thing I've heard this week.

then it will hit iceland with winds at 190mph

Now... that's just plain goofy.

the word is impossible

on a serious note I think they will get a cat 1-2 up in New England

[Jim Cantore]

I left out I mean a coast rider like a Gloria, Bob, Belle, or Floyd

[WindRunner]

a cat 5 will hit maine

That's the silliest thing I've heard this week.

Well, it's better than saying one will make landfall in Vermont . . .

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm not even sure a cat. 5 could hit the Carolinas in theory. What does everyone here think?

[vbhoutex]

I'm not even sure a cat. 5 could hit the Carolinas in theory. What does everyone here think?

Possible, definitely!!! Probable? Not nearly as easy as some may think mainly due to the heat content of the ocean below needed to sustain a Cat 5. North of the 30º latitude that heat content tends to be shallow(I think).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Besides the shallower layer of warm surface water, there is another factor (besides of course increasing shear) to take into account. The atmosphere, especially the Troposphere, literally thins between the equator and the poles. Simply put a hurricane is unable to build up it's Cumulonimbus central ring height into that seen in the tropics. Less height = less energy content, and ever more importantly less stored energy for it to feed off of as it travels further and further into a increasingly hostile environment.

[wxwatcher91]

Well, Im more concerned about the track of storms this year. intensity doesnt matter as much because who cares about intensity if the storm doesnt even go your way? a cat 2 hurricane east of the Bahamas can easily maintain high-end Tropical storm status up through 40 north. This mainly because of the Gulf Stream. think of 2004 Alex. strengthened to and maintained cat 3 status through 42 north and maintained cat 1 status through 47 north.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

True. And, as I've stated in the past, there have been cases of at least cat 3 storms striking the coast of New England. What I was pointing out is why it is so hard to maintain peak cat 5 intensity up until landfall as a storm travels North. Cat 1, 2 even a few 3, and in extremely rare cases a weak cat 4 are not out of the question though.

[Derek Ortt]

Hugo has a legitimate case for an upgrade to a cat 5 on reanalysis

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I hadn't heard about that. I do know that, even after spending 18 - 24 hours over land Doppler radar estimates were still showing strong hurricane force winds (meaning sustained well over 65 kt) above the boundary layer. Hugo was a very impressive storm no doubt about that.