What were your best non-professional landfall predictions?

[Audrey2Katrina]

I know many of you are probably like myself inasmuch as my fascination with hurricanes began at a very early age. My first ever was while in the back yard of our 9th ward home, overcast sky with fairly rapidly moving clouds, a gust of wind blew my dad's hammock up the driveway and into the street, and I heard him say it was that "hurricane" hitting at the time--that was Audrey.

By the time I was beginning high school my fascination with these things never abated, and I had absolutely NO idea just how damaging they could really be--constantly wanted to experience one. (yeah stupidity of youth--especially considering where I was living), we had near misses with a few but Hilda of '64 made me all the more anxious to really see what a hurricane was like at ground zero. So I recall like it were yesterday, seeing hurricane Betsy, at the time heading up toward the Carolinas. I had always had an interest in cartography so I drew a quick map of the east coast, Florida, and the Gulf all the way to Texas, spotted Betsy where she was at the time, and drew my own track of where I expected (actually WANTED) to see her go. So I simply had her do a 180 from aiming at the Carolinas to heading south toward the Florida strait, where I curved my line through that narrow waterway, and continued the track all the way to the Louisiana coast, and actually wrote: "Betsy come visit New Orleans"...yeah, dumb dumb... but I know kids who wanted to see what Katrina would be like before Aug. 29... it's a fascination thing for them UNTIL they really see what it can do. Well, needless to say, the storm, while not taking my exact path, followed pretty close to it. I think it stalled over the Bahamas for a couple of days pounding those poor folk before heading across southern Florida and into the Gulf. She hit close to Grand Isle, and CPA to New Orleans was about 25 m SW, but believe me, that was close enough! We got flooded badly in that one--precursor of worse to come sadly. I'd have to say that was my luckiest guess ever, and yeah it was a kid's wish more than anything else--still, I'll never forget the feeling I got when the storm pretty much took that path.

Now long after childhood, and many predictions pretty far off, I'd have to say my actual best was with Andrew. When it was headed for south Florida, I told some friends of mine who knew I was a weather afficionado where I expected it's final path to take it (They were wondering about it hitting New Orleans) and I said my best guess for final landfall would be central Louisiana somewhere around Vermillion Bay... pretty much had that one spot on a few days ahead of landfall.

Not taking any bows... I guess if you take enough tosses at a dartboard in the dark a few will hit close to the bullseye, and I have followed these things for many years; but these were my two best. (can't really call any hurricane "lucky" unless it stays with the fish.

Any of you all have this sort of prediction experience that strikes you as peculiar? I noted that someone in here predicted a major 'cane to make landfall near Buras this year and THAT was incredible...albeit I believe this was made before a storm was even in the offing. So I'll qualify it with a prediction you've made of a predictive path once a storm was actually on the maps. Also, you pro-mets, you folks do it for a living; so I'll ask that should any of you even bother--make it one you made BEFORE you took any met courses! (gotta do something to even the playing field!)

Any other interesing predictions made out there?

A2K

[SouthFloridawx]

I think with Katrina... it was an old northern part of tropical depression 10 and some of us wouldn't let it go. Well later on a nothern end of the tropical wave that was old td ten ended up being called TD 12 then tropical storm Katrina. I didn't really call it at that point but, I think that some of us had a gut feeling about it. Also might i add I was driving home from North Miami on I 95 north and had this feeling of a tropical storm hitting the area and mentioned to my girlfriend that I had a weird feeling about something hitting the area. Also I had a feeling about hurricanes Frances and Jeanne. Wilma was a different story but, if there is a TS or Depression or Hurricane in the area I can feel it in my bones.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

I called Georges as a big one as soon as it became a TD. (and I don't call every storm to be a big one)

Er, I called Wilma's reintensification over the GOM, and Katrina's fateful right jog into Mississippi the day she blew the top off her ERC and became a 5. I figured Ivan would end up hitting Florida, but that's just Murphy's Law, not really any kind of intelligent forecast. (although often right)

*shrug* I try not to focus too much on my own personal forecasts because I know I have just as much potential to be wrong as anybody else's forecast.

[Windtalker1]

I would have to say for me it was "Wilma" .... I spoted the circulation way before an invest was issued and from the beginning said thet this was going to be a monster and a south Florida hit. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 97&start=0

[cheezyWXguy]

My Katrina forecast actually was pretty close...when it was TD10, I predicted it to move slowly up the bahamas as a TD or TS...(didnt think it would die out as much as it did) and it the east coast of florida, probably around palm beach and start making its way east into the gulf...I then predicted it torapidly strengthen up to 145 over the gulf stream and move up into mobile as a CAT 4 140-150mph...
so overall I was pretty close...Sorry mobilers about my predictions

[Steve]

I've had plenty of good ones and plenty of also-rans. Probably my best work came with Lili and Isidore. I argued against big-timers (both amateur and professional) and hit them both pretty close. Also, last year's early hint on that tongue of heat licking the MS/AL coast brought out a headsup for some early north coast development (Cindy, Dennis). But on 8/20, I posted a heads-up on Saintsreport.

The Gulf of Mexico could potentially see another two named storms in the next few days. It's impossible to say whether either of the systems will get going, but at least one of them will be in the Gulf. The areas of concern are 1) off the Nicaraguan/Hondoruan coast and 2) remnants of ex Tropical Depression #10. The former has some mid-level rotation and should be over the Yucatan Peninsula in the next couple of days. A lot will depend on what happens off the SW Coast of Mexico. If that system gets really strong, then chances are outflow will interfere with development. ex TD 10 is depicted differently by various global models. Some like the UKMET want to form a closed system south of Florida and edge it WNW-NW toward the LA Coast. Others show a surface reflection moving up toward the SE US Coast.

In any event, we're likely to see another batch of named storms over the next 4 or 5 weeks with the traditional peak of hurricane season. It's not out of the question that we could see another 5-8 named storms before late September. Just stay tuned because either or both of these current entities could turn out to be something of interest for the Gulf Coast.

On 8/22, the following was added:

As for the initial post, the energy that was on the Yucatan that everyone on the storm forums was laughing at became Tropical Depression #11 this morning. It's going to move inland late tonight or early tomorrow, but does have a reasonable shot at becoming Jose. As for the remnants of TD #10 and the related waves/wave energy near the big islands, almost all of the global models are still depicting development toward the end of the week. Solutions vary from development just east of Florida to near the Keys to off the SW Coast of FL. Almost all the Globals that do form something in or near the Gulf eventually move it up WNW. Points from Lake Chuck eastward around FL to Jacksonville should be paying attention later in the week.

Later that day:

The next element is the 2 waves and energy left over from TD #10 in and around the Greater Antillies. Outside shot rain could start in FL by Wed-Thurs time period. There are a few different scenarios, but there's almost an even money bet (based on the dynamical and global model concurrence) that these remnants form into Katerina/Katrina (or however you spell it) and threaten the Gulf Coast possibly as a strong to intense system late this weekend or early next week. Residents and visitors between Tampa and Galveston need to pay close attention and double check your supplies.

Not that the call from 6 and 8 days out was pinpoint, but the information got out there to people who don't watch waves or depressions.

There are others, but I don't feel like searching the archives of SR.com, CFHC or S2K for the proof.

Steve

[Scorpion]

I called for Rita being a significant Cat 5 in the GOM while everyone else disagreed. Also called for Wilma being exceptionally powerful several days precluding it. Also nailed the Florida landfall 8 days in advance.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Wow, uncanny how a lot of folks had an uneasy feeling about Katrina.. I recall seeing somewhere else where folks had been saying that it was going to be "the one" and that New Orleans was going to have her number come up with that one... have to admit, I had her continuing too far west. I thought she'd take more of another Betsy-like track, into Morgan City or thereabouts.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

I called for Rita being a significant Cat 5 in the GOM while everyone else disagreed.

Rita had me absolutely terrified, and with good reason, ... didn't call her to develop as much as she did, so good intuition on that one. I had her on the track a lot of earlier predictions did... more west and south of Galveston than smack on the Tex/La. line. I think I was "praying" her further and further west... still didn't help the 9th ward any

A2K

[skysummit]

I called for Rita being a significant Cat 5 in the GOM while everyone else disagreed.

Rita had me absolutely terrified, and with good reason, ... didn't call her to develop as much as she did, so good intuition on that one. I had her on the track a lot of earlier predictions did... more west and south of Galveston than smack on the Tex/La. line. I think I was "praying" her further and further west... still didn't help the 9th ward any

A2K

...or southern Terrebonne Parish

[Pearl River]

The best prediction I had was with Hugo, showing my age a little. I had predicted a Charleston landfall while it was still southeast of Puerto Rico. The second one was Gilbert, but I had it about 100 miles further north.

[Audrey2Katrina]

...or southern Terrebonne Parish

Good point... what with all the media covering either the RE-flooding of the ninth ward, or the flooding and devastation between Beaumont and Lake Charles, Terrebonne Parish got pretty much lost in the mix.

A2K

[vbhoutex]

I've done pretty well with a lot of my predictions over the years. Of late I nailed Ivan and Dennis both within miles. Katrina was a problem but in the end I was telling Lindaloo that she needed to get out because the westward trend for her was going to continue. Didn't nail the landfall exactly, I figured a little further East than actual, probably close to Pascagoula or maybe a little East. The reason you don't see any of my posts about these? I don't tend to publish my predictions. Maybe I should, even though they are only my predictions based on my knowledge and the knowledge of others I trust and stay in contact with in the weather community. Rita I had upper TX coast or East long before most did. She did surprise me with her final turn into the LA/TX border area though. Ah well, none of this is a competition and all of it is a crap shoot, but it sure is interesting and "fun" to predict and find out how much or how little you know and LEARN FROM YOUR "MISTAKES". That is what has helped me hone my skills over the years. Here's to ALL FISHIES for 2006!!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

A FULL WEEK before Rita I was forecasting it to recurve into the TX/LA border area. I ended up being dead on, even though most people and even the NWS disagreed at the time. Rita was probably my best call. As for second best, I would have to say that was with Hurricane Charley. I spotted him jogging more eastward in the early morning and just knew it was coming my way. About an hour later the News came on with their met to explain that Charley was indeed heading more eastward. Later that day I was hit with the full fury of the weakening Charley as it moved over Orlando and produced gusts of 100+mph.

[wxmann_91]

I've had bad vibes about Katrina and Lenny since 1998, if you can call that a prediction.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I've had bad vibes about Katrina and Lenny since 1998, if you can call that a prediction.

ROFL... Good call Wx... There was a Katrina in 1999, I think... didn't amount to much; but this one made up for it.

A2K

[cajungal]

I do not have a degree of meterology at all. But, Betsy got me fasinated. Granted Betsy happened many years before I was born. But, my parents told me their stories and both were in the eyewall for Betsy. My mom in Thibodaux and my dad in Cut Off. Both were teenagers at the time. Andrew got my attention even more. And to be honest, I did not pay much attention until I saw the damage to Homestead. When he crossed over to the Gulf Of Mexico, I knew he was our storm. I predicted landfall to be between Cocodrie and Morgan City almost from the minute he was in the Gulf. Pretty good landfall for a 16 year old. Because I was very close. He hit around Morgan City or just slightly west of there. But, he scraped the coast near Terrebonne Parish before coming ashore. We got winds of over 100 mph here.

I remember when Lili was out there everyone was focusing on Texas. I picked out New Iberia almost from day one. It was a little scary when she took a job right at the last minute and thought Terrebonne Parish could get hit. But, somehow I knew in my heart, she was still going to New Iberia. And I was right.

For Bill, I picked Houma for landfall. Was right on target for him as well as Isidore.

When everyone thought Ivan may hit New Orleans and everyone started to panic. I am the one that told my parents that Ivan was not our storm. It was going to hit Pensacola. My parents listened to me and that is why we did not leave.

In the beginning when Cindy formed, the meterologists had her going to Texas. I said no way. At the time she was poorly organized. I said her center is going to be much further east. I was right on Cindy too.

August 4th-11th, I had a vacation booked for Destin, Florida. I was leery because I knew a hurricane was going to hit Destin close to our vacation time. Booked the vacation anyway though. Dennis came ashore in Santa Rosa which is not far from Destin only 2 weeks prior to our vacation. I went to Destin anyway though and had a great time.

I predicted Katrina at the very beginning of hurricane season. I said New Orleans would get hit around the 40th year anniversary of Betsy. And it proved to be correct. I also said first landfall would be around Ft. Lauderdale.

In the beginning all the experts had Rita going to Galveston or even south of there. I held my guns to the LA/TX border almost from the beginning. If anybody thinks I am making any of this up, they can search through my previous threads before any of these storms hit.

[Audrey2Katrina]

When everyone thought Ivan may hit New Orleans and everyone started to panic. I am the one that told my parents that Ivan was not our storm.

Forgot all about that one. I recall the pandemonium around here with everyone convinced it would hit our area. I was convinced that a hit between Mobile and Pensacola was more likely; but had a sis who is positively horrified by these storms and I'm very close to her and her family, so when they vacated to Houston, I went with 'em (at her insistence). But I was convinced from the beginning they had him heading way too far west in those earlier projections.

Still, all that said, given the area we live in--better safe than sorry, if nothing else, Katrina taught us that much. Like someone else said in here, these are "gut" instincts, and it's fun to reflect upon them; but they can be very wrong betimes, and being wrong about something this serious--could be fatal. I may well have another strong instinct about the next one headed our way; but I can assure you, I'm going the "safe" route from here on out.

A2K

[Andrew92]

My best prediction was Ivan. I predicted Ivan of 2004 to be a big one in December of 1998 and never wavered. That name never sounded right, even if it was a fish in 1980 and 1998.

I also predicted Frances to be a big one in 2004, though I don't think I had her hitting Florida. As I recall, she and Ivan were the two most popular guesses as well.

In addition, even though I didn't really feel like voicing it until forecasts in May indicated a much more active season that though, I had a feeling in 2002 that there would be a big GOM hurricane named Rita someday. Lo and behold, Rita hit the GOM hard in 2005.

As a word of warning, whenever I have a long-term (meaning lasting for years) nasty vibe off of a storm, someone had better watch out. I'm 2 for 2 in that category, and I wish I was 0 for 2.

-Andrew92

[george_r_1961]

My best prediction was Isabel. Four days out I predicted landfall between the GA/SC line the NC/VA line. Two days out I predicted landfall near Ocracoke Island NC. I was 10 miles off.