"Unprecedented" La Nina Growing

[canegrl04]

The La Nina growing off the coast of S.America is being called "unprecedented" in its size,and for this time of the year Sounds like we will have another bad*** hurricane season

[crabbyhermit]

I've heard La Nina means a bad hurricane season, and I've also read on these boards many predictions that the most likely landfalls for 06 will be Florida's west coast, the Eastern seaboard, and the Texas coast, NOT the NGOM (I'm in New Orleans, so that gives me some small comfort). Are such predictions based on La Nina? If so, could someone tell me how La Nina means canes might curve up to the East coast or steer straight west to Tex/Mex coast? A condensed, layman's version will suffice. Just trying to catch up here. Thanks!

[skysummit]

After last year, I'm not even paying attention to such predictions.

[dhweather]

Opinions are so funny at times.

It's the biggest La Nina EVER

It's gonna fade out by hurricane season.


All we get to do is watch, it'll do what it wants to do.

[vbhoutex]

La Nina has nothing to do with recurvature of storms that I know of. What it does mean is that under the best of "normal" circumstances that a season will more than likely be more active than ususal.

I think the predictions you are seeing are based on "gut feelings", some climatology, and as far as the GOM is concerned, an "apparent" trend Westward with the landfalls over the last few years. The East coast activity predictions are based on the fact it does appear, of course, depending on the set up of the bermuda high, which does affect recurvature, that there will probably be a Cape Verde season, which was virtually non-existant last year, and many of those do stay in the Atlantic basin proper and could threaten the East coast as opposed to the GOM.

[hurricanetrack]

It is an impressive La Nina right now. Also notable is the GOM Loop Current and the warm eddy to its west:

https://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif

Although the heat content of the Atlantic Basin is not even close to being of concern yet.

Stacy Stewart mentioned at the HAM radio conference a month ago that steering patterns can set up a certain way for 5 to 7 years at a time. It was a general comment and not a prediction on his part. But he did point out that the steering patterns have obviously favored a lot of landfalls these last two seasons and that there are no indications AT THE MOMENT that these patterns will cease. I will be very anxious to see how the 500mb ridge pattern sets up over the western Atlantic later this spring and summer. Won't we all?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Opinions are so funny at times.

It's the biggest La Nina EVER

It's gonna fade out by hurricane season.


All we get to do is watch, it'll do what it wants to do.

Too true. I'll wait and see for one. It seem that the "predictions" from different sources have indeed been all over the place

[Extremeweatherguy]

La Nina = Bad season for the western Gulf!

[clfenwi]

A statement from the Climate Diagnostic Center's ENSO index page

Although we have reached the time of year when persistence is normally hard to beat, the recent drop into negative values shows that this is not a 'normal' year, and further forays into true La Niña conditions, or an unscheduled return to 'near-normal' both appear possible.

See also the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO discussion:

After a fairly rapid evolution of incipient La Niña conditions by early February, the past two weeks has seen some key indicators ease to levels more typical of neutral conditions. Specifically, central to eastern Pacific surface temperatures have risen abruptly, the SOI has fallen back to near zero and the Trade Winds have decreased to average intensity in the western to central Pacific. However, given the large mass of cooler than average water that remains in the subsurface of the eastern Pacific, it may be premature to assume this trend away from La Niña conditions will continue.

Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that we're nearing the ENSO prediction barrier of March to June, the time when predictability of the climate system is at its lowest, and the time when ENSO events usually decay or begin to form. Neverthelss, Australian and international computer models strongly suggest neutral conditions will be present by the middle of the year due to a steady warming of the central Pacific between now and the southern winter.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I've heard La Nina means a bad hurricane season, and I've also read on these boards many predictions that the most likely landfalls for 06 will be Florida's west coast, the Eastern seaboard, and the Texas coast, NOT the NGOM (I'm in New Orleans, so that gives me some small comfort). Are such predictions based on La Nina? If so, could someone tell me how La Nina means canes might curve up to the East coast or steer straight west to Tex/Mex coast? A condensed, layman's version will suffice. Just trying to catch up here. Thanks!

Take that with a grain of salt. There's no way somebody can predict that with any accuracy. Sounds like a bunch of hooey.

[Extremeweatherguy]

if you compare la nina to el nino years...you find that la nina years feature a much higher frequency of storms in the western gulf.

[AussieMark]

ou find that la nina years feature a much higher frequency of storms in the western gulf.

and a higher frequency of storms that mature to hurricanes and majors

i.e 1999 only had 12 storms

of those 8 became hurricanes (66.67%)

of those 5 became major hurricanes (62.5%)

[johngaltfla]

if you compare la nina to el nino years...you find that la nina years feature a much higher frequency of storms in the western gulf.

Shhhh. They might hear you.

[Aquawind]

I don't see anything unprecidented about this Nina event. The Aussies are still thinking nearly neutral ATM. From what I read a weak to moderate La Nina is possible but I have not read anything pointing to even a weak El Nino or a strong La Nina. The official USA forecast suggests a short lived weak/moderate La Nina event.

How much affect it will have on this over active ATL is yet to be seen. The way last year went a few more long tracking CV systems are expected La Nina or not. Fortunately with all of the Warm SSTs to depth in the central ATL and eastern Carribean last year those areas escaped the brunt of the energy released. The percentage of my concern for say West Gulf versus E Gulf is miniscule with this overall active period. Nobody is safe and it's just a matter of the timing ATM for any system..

Paul

[Steve]

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

That's as of today. Here's one of the strongest La Ninas in 1998.

antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/ apod/ap980720.html

1998 didn't feature many western gulf storms of any interest, though we did get some action here in New Orleans (central Gulf) and Mississippi got Georges. If I remember, most of the stuff down in the W & SW Gulf were weaker systems even though TS Frances off the coast of Brownsville did flood the dickens out of my city with feeder bands. Hermine came through here, but the moisture and convection was mostly east of Mobile. Wind gusted to about 20ish.

Here's another one

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Now here's the 2000 La Nina in the winter (one of the strongest ones recorded). I could be wrong, but I don't remember whether the La Nina lasted through the season. That might have been the year with the jet stream down in the southern gulf or whatever. Maybe Danny was during that year? But still, no serious Western Gulf season - some action in the BOC.

Steve

[AussieMark]

La Nina conditions were around between July 1998 and June 2000

then October 2000 - February 20001

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[killah]

I remember that year Steve. It flooded so bad on Carrolton Ave in New Orleans, I saw cars floating down the street. A tropical storm parked itself right over Houston in early September. I remembered we got hammered with so much rain something like 30 inches after this event was over.

[ROCK]

La Nina = Bad season for the western Gulf!

EWG- is there a way look up our last active decade (40's) and see what had back then as far as Nino, Nina, Neutral. Curious to see.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

La Nina = Bad season for the western Gulf!

EWG- is there a way look up our last active decade (40's) and see what had back then as far as Nino, Nina, Neutral. Curious to see.....

A good way would be to go to that Historical hurricane mapping site ( http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ ) and then search for storms in a desired area during la nina vs. la nino years.

[Jim Hughes]

The Nino 3.4 Region, which is the official monitoring area, has been basically the same since early January and one could argue it has even warmed slightly. OTOH a few other things things have modestly changed recently so it could mildly cool down slightly again.

The subsurface, which is one of the more important indicators/factors here, still shows no possible sign of anything more than a weak event. If that.


Jim