DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CST SAT MAR 04 2006
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...WITH
GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT -- AND BOTH FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR RUNS -- WITH REGARDS TO PATTERN EVOLUTION
THROUGH DAY 7.
GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
THE CONUS WITH TIME...AS RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED EWD. A LEAD FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE DESERT SW ON DAY 5...ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES/CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY
DAY 6...AND THEN INTO CANADA ON DAY 7. MEANWHILE...A MUCH
LARGER-SCALE/STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
ON DAYS 7 AND 8.
WITH MOISTURE RETURN FROM AN OPEN GULF FORECAST TO BE ONGOING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MULTIPLE/POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENTS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT IS APPARENT DAY 4
INVOF THE MID MS VALLEY...A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY 5 PERIOD OVER THE SRN PLAINS...AND
CONTINUING DAY 6 ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER
EVENT THEN APPEARS POSSIBLE DAY 7 FROM THE PLAINS EWD TO THE MS
VALLEY...AND THEN ACROSS THE MS AND OH VALLEYS/GREAT LAKES DAY 8.
..GOSS.. 03/04/2006
