Earlier model guidance didn't do much with this.
FXPQ20 RJTD 041200 RRA
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 041200UTC 05.3N 138.3E
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 05.0N 138.3E -003HPA +001KT
T=12 05.4N 138.2E 000HPA +001KT
T=18 05.9N 137.6E -003HPA +003KT
T=24 05.8N 136.5E -001HPA +005KT
T=30 05.7N 135.4E -003HPA +004KT
T=36 05.4N 134.3E -001HPA +004KT
T=42 05.2N 133.3E -004HPA +003KT
T=48 05.1N 132.1E -002HPA +005KT
T=54 05.1N 130.7E -004HPA +004KT
T=60 05.2N 129.0E -002HPA +005KT
T=66 05.2N 127.7E -003HPA +003KT
T=72 05.3N 126.5E 000HPA 000KT
T=78 06.6N 124.0E 000HPA -003KT
T=84 07.8N 122.3E +002HPA -003KT
T=90 09.2N 122.6E 000HPA -002KT=
It is still a TD as with the JMA advisory I posted before.
Tropical Depression Basyang at WPAC
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P.K, yeah the models aren't amazingly keen on it, though they still take it to 68kts at its peak.
That table is really cool though, it'd be cool if the NHC were to do that sort of thing.
That table is really cool though, it'd be cool if the NHC were to do that sort of thing.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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P.K.
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HURAKAN wrote:fact789 wrote:so it is now technily a TS?
No, the problem in the WPAC that our friend P.K. finds quite amusingis that we have a ton of agencies playing at the same time different notes, but the "official" one here is Japan that has it as a tropical depression.
You misunderstood me slightly there.
What I was saying is there is one agency per basin and I like the way I have to look in different places for the data. Tokyo is the RSMC for this basin so I'll use the Japanese advisories. 
Which model KW? I haven't had a chance to look at any others yet.
One thing I should point out is that was using the JMA's global model rather than their typhoon model which must have been having problems.
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P.K.
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HURAKAN wrote:Sorry P.K. if you felt I was rude, which wasn't my intention!!!
Don't worry I didn't.
Tropical Depression
Issued at 21:00 UTC 4 Mar 2006
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 06.3N 138.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 06.3N 134.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
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HURAKAN
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 4
800 AM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006
...TROPICAL STORM 01W MOVING TOWARD PALAU...
AS OF 8 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR
AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES EAST OF KOROR
225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL
105 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU
190 MILES SOUTH OF YAP
390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL
AFTER MOVING NORTH OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS...TROPICAL STORM 01W
IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A
MORE WESTERLY TRACK AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM 01W BETWEEN KOROR AND
KAYANGEL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.7 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 2 PM.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
TROPICAL STORM 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 4
800 AM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006
...TROPICAL STORM 01W MOVING TOWARD PALAU...
AS OF 8 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR
AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES EAST OF KOROR
225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL
105 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU
190 MILES SOUTH OF YAP
390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL
AFTER MOVING NORTH OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS...TROPICAL STORM 01W
IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A
MORE WESTERLY TRACK AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM 01W BETWEEN KOROR AND
KAYANGEL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.7 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 2 PM.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
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cycloneye
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ZCZC 975
WTPQ20 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 06.3N 138.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 06.3N 134.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT =
NNNN
WTPQ20 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 06.3N 138.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 06.3N 134.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT =
NNNN
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P.K.
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FXPQ20 RJTD 041800
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 041800UTC 06.3N 138.1E
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 06.2N 138.2E +002HPA +001KT
T=12 06.5N 137.7E -001HPA +003KT
T=18 06.6N 136.9E +001HPA +005KT
T=24 06.5N 135.7E -001HPA +006KT
T=30 06.3N 134.4E 000HPA +007KT
T=36 06.2N 133.1E -003HPA +007KT
T=42 06.0N 131.6E -001HPA +007KT
T=48 05.7N 130.2E -002HPA +007KT
T=54 05.7N 128.8E -001HPA +007KT
T=60 05.7N 127.6E -005HPA +009KT
T=66 06.0N 126.6E -004HPA +011KT
T=72 07.0N 124.9E -003HPA +013KT
T=78 07.7N 123.1E -001HPA +010KT
T=84 08.1N 121.1E -004HPA +018KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 041800UTC 06.3N 138.1E
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 06.2N 138.2E +002HPA +001KT
T=12 06.5N 137.7E -001HPA +003KT
T=18 06.6N 136.9E +001HPA +005KT
T=24 06.5N 135.7E -001HPA +006KT
T=30 06.3N 134.4E 000HPA +007KT
T=36 06.2N 133.1E -003HPA +007KT
T=42 06.0N 131.6E -001HPA +007KT
T=48 05.7N 130.2E -002HPA +007KT
T=54 05.7N 128.8E -001HPA +007KT
T=60 05.7N 127.6E -005HPA +009KT
T=66 06.0N 126.6E -004HPA +011KT
T=72 07.0N 124.9E -003HPA +013KT
T=78 07.7N 123.1E -001HPA +010KT
T=84 08.1N 121.1E -004HPA +018KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
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cycloneye
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Latest
PMZ161-171-050500-
TROPICAL STORM 01W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006
...TROPICAL STORM 01W MOVING TOWARDS PALAU...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES EAST OF KOROR
225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL
105 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU
190 MILES SOUTH OF YAP
390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W
IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH.
...KOROR AND KAYANGEL...
RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD PREPARE FOR BRIEF PERIODS
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS
PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NORTH LATE TODAY. NORTHWEST WIND
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT AFTER 4 AM ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY TO WEST
WIND 25 TO 30 KT EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH AROUND 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES
WILL BE HAZARDOUS 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
AS TROPICAL STORM 01W PASSES.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 PM GUAM LST.
$$
ZIOBRO
PMZ161-171-050500-
TROPICAL STORM 01W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006
...TROPICAL STORM 01W MOVING TOWARDS PALAU...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES EAST OF KOROR
225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL
105 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU
190 MILES SOUTH OF YAP
390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W
IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH.
...KOROR AND KAYANGEL...
RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD PREPARE FOR BRIEF PERIODS
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS
PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NORTH LATE TODAY. NORTHWEST WIND
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT AFTER 4 AM ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY TO WEST
WIND 25 TO 30 KT EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH AROUND 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES
WILL BE HAZARDOUS 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
AS TROPICAL STORM 01W PASSES.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 PM GUAM LST.
$$
ZIOBRO
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StormScanWx
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cycloneye
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1000 AM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006
PMZ161-171-051200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1000 AM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR PALAU AND YAP...
TROPICAL STORM 01W MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REPUBLIC
OF PALAU AND YAP STATE ON MONDAY.
T 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES EAST OF KOROR...105 MILES
SOUTH OF NGULU AND 190 MILES SOUTH OF YAP.
TROPICAL STORM 01W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL
STORM 01W BETWEEN KOROR AND KAYANGEL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ON NGULU AND
ON MONDAY OVER YAP ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD REACH 4 INCHES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES OR COMMUNICATION
DEVICES.
$$
ZIOBRO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1000 AM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006
PMZ161-171-051200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1000 AM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR PALAU AND YAP...
TROPICAL STORM 01W MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REPUBLIC
OF PALAU AND YAP STATE ON MONDAY.
T 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES EAST OF KOROR...105 MILES
SOUTH OF NGULU AND 190 MILES SOUTH OF YAP.
TROPICAL STORM 01W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL
STORM 01W BETWEEN KOROR AND KAYANGEL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ON NGULU AND
ON MONDAY OVER YAP ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD REACH 4 INCHES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES OR COMMUNICATION
DEVICES.
$$
ZIOBRO
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cycloneye
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It looks like is on the virge to get the name Chanchu.However until it's official it remains Tropical Depression 01W.
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cycloneye
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Tropical Depression
Issued at 00:00 UTC 5 Mar 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 05.9N 138.3E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 06.2N 134.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
Remains a TD.
Issued at 00:00 UTC 5 Mar 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 05.9N 138.3E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 06.2N 134.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
Remains a TD.
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senorpepr
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From PAGASA
Weather
Issued At: 5:00 a.m., 05 March 2006
Synopsis : At 2:00 a.m. today, tropical depression was estimated at 1,270 kms east of Southern Mindanao (6.0°N 138.0°E). with maximum winds of 55 kph near the center. Tail-end of cold front extending over Eastern Luzon and Eastern Visayas.
Weather
Issued At: 5:00 a.m., 05 March 2006
Synopsis : At 2:00 a.m. today, tropical depression was estimated at 1,270 kms east of Southern Mindanao (6.0°N 138.0°E). with maximum winds of 55 kph near the center. Tail-end of cold front extending over Eastern Luzon and Eastern Visayas.
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WindRunner
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cycloneye wrote:Tropical Depression
Issued at 00:00 UTC 5 Mar 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 05.9N 138.3E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 06.2N 134.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
Remains a TD.
And the pressure is up 2mb from 1004.
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