We can ONLY HOPE

[azsnowman]

WELL...at LEAST they're keeping their TONGUES in CHEEK with this.......wonder if they've finally recognized the error of their ways

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME BIG CHANGES FOR NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP. THE FIRST SYSTEM COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME ACROSS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THE TWO CERTAINTIES ARE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LESS CERTAIN ELEMENT IS IF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING US THE POSSIBILITY OF A DECENT SYSTEM 6 TO 8 DAYS OUT...BUT BY THE TIME DAYS 2 AND 3 COME AROUND...WE END UP WITH THESE REALLY WEAK SYSTEMS THAT GIVE US INSIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE THEREFORE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EXTENDED. CK

[LTHLBLU]

man, i hope this one actually verifies!

[Aslkahuna]

In looking at the runs myself, if I were at Flag I would keep the forecast conservative because even the furthest west of the runs has an inside slider. Dust's main hope would come if the system closed off in NM and he caught wraparound.

Steve

[Scorpion]

Seems at this point that small rain would be worse for the upcoming fire season, would it not? The rain would cause grasses to grow, only to dry out in the summer making the situation worse.

[Aslkahuna]

The ground is so dry that small rain will have no effect on the grasses. A heavy rain (one inch or more) would promote some growth but would have no effect upon the Hydrological impact. Down here in Cochise County, the problem is dire as well. We had a fairly decent monsoon down here with above normal Summer rainfall around Sierra Vista. This resulted in a major growth of Summer grasses which have dried out during a dsimal Winter with the result that we are primed for some large fast moving grassland fires when the Spring rains and influx of illegals begin (the latter being a prime source of fire starts here). With grasses that grow up to 6 feet high, grassland fires like the Prarie Fires in the Plains (OK,TX for example) are extremely dangerous, destructive and fast moving-one down here a few years ago (started by illegals) jumped from under 6000 acres to over 30000 acres in a matter of hours under strong Spring winds threatening Huachuca City and causing damage on Fort Huachuca including knocking out power to the Post.

Steve
'

[aveosmth]

I think you guys in Arizona are finally going to get some much needed precip next week. The models are fairly consistent with bringing probably the deepest trough I've ever seen in to the SouthWest towards the middle of next week.

Snow levels could be ridiculously low with parts of the Bay Area and San Joaquin Valley getting some of the white stuff.

The trough then falls further south w/snow levels in the 2000 ft range in Southern California and will begin to bring precip into Arizona.

If the GFS comes EVEN CLOSE to verifying what its shown in its last four model runs you guys should be in good shape.

[Aslkahuna]

We plan on waiting until next Monday before committing to anything in our forecasts-if then. The GFS has had this remarkable ability to dry out in the last 96 hours before the event. This last system was supposed to bring over an inch of rain to parts of AZ when it first showed on the GFS.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Still have the moisture in the forecast and unlike all nothing (winter) long...they are being VERY conservative!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA BEGINNING ON MONDAY. A DEEP EPAC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST ON TUE/WED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEKS DIFFERS GREATLY FROM THE UKMET AND THE GFS. WILL TAKE THE AVERAGE OF BOTH MODELS AT THIS TIME.

[azsnowman]

Starting to sound a *little* better and better but as always, I have taken the "wait and see" approach until we ACTUALLY see, feel, smell it!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRONG DIVQ FORCING...STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE OROGRAPHICS...AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE. ALL THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PCPN ACROSS NRN AZ BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6500 FEET TUESDAY...FALLING TO 5000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF S/W RIDGE TRAVERSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM DRIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AZ. RATHER THAN A S/W TROUGH...THIS DEVELOPS INTO A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPS...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PCPN. IN ADDITION...HGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 3000 FEET BY LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH THIS LONG WAVE FEATURE IN PLACE..THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PCPN EACH DAY FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS SERIES OF FEATURES SO IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO MAKE A FORECAST AT THIS TIME OF PCPN AMOUNTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE FCST OF MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

[azsnowman]

"IF" and I do mean "IF" this verifies, you will SEE the OLD snowman return.......right now, there's so much DUST that I'll be the AZMUDMAN for a LOOOOOoooooooooong time

Dennis

[aveosmth]

Dennis,

I think you are looking very good w/the setup for the middle to end of next week. The pattern change that will hopefully take place is amazing.

The 850mb temps in SoCal are forecast to drop to levels that I haven't seen before on early Friday and it would support snow levels in the 1500-2000 ft range...and into the Los Angeles County valleys in convection. The only problem (and its a big one) is the forecast northwest flow aloft which just kills precip chances.

Las Vegas has a good chance of some accumulating snows...probably 2-4 inches or so.

As for Arizona, the models have been fairly consistent with precipitation for most of the state. This should be a fun week indeed.

[Aslkahuna]

If AZ does get precip, it will be mainly in the northern part of the state as the inside slider track does not favor a major statewide event. It will defintely be much colder.

Steve

[aveosmth]

Any bay area residents out there, when was the last time you've seen snow levels this low per the NWS in SFO:

BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO 1000 FEET OR POSSIBLY LOWER IF THE
GFS VERIFIES.

[Aslkahuna]

One thousand foot snow levels are not that rare in the Bay Area-or at least wasn't when I lived there-we could count on seeing snow on the front ridges of the East Foothilla of San Jose about once or twoce a winter.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Once again FLAG is having a hard time with these systems, once again, sitting, waiting.........................*but not complaining*

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. THEN...THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE SYNOPTIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA USHERING IN A POLAR AIRMASS WITH THE POLAR JET DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WITH WX DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TO EAST IN A RATHER MOIST-FAST MOVING FLOW ALOFT. MODEL TIMING AND DETAILS AT THIS POINT BECOME DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH ANY RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. LOW CHC`S OF PRECIP ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING ISSUES. CURRENTLY THE UCMWF IS INDICATING A MORE OPEN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NOT AS DEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AS THE EXTENDED RANGE GFS.

[aveosmth]

Steve,

Did you ever get flurries at sea-level w/those storms...I've seen snow levels drop 1K ft w/strong convection.

[Aslkahuna]

We had a convective event in 1952 that dropped snow pellets at the house (elevation 159 ft) heavy enough for an accumulation. The 1962 snowfall was an afternoon thundersnow event. Of course, here in AZ I'm at 4500' so we see convective snow bursts quite frequently.

Steve

[Cowhide]

Keep in mind that rare snow events will never happen again in areas like Los Angeles, San Diego or Phoenix, because of global warming.

[azsnowman]

Not getting my hopes TOO high just yet BUT.........................

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 061033 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 335 AM MST MON MAR 06 2006 .SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY... AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. && .DISCUSSION...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH ARIZONA TODAY. STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL TAP INTO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND WETTER STORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ON FRIDAY...AN EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ARIZONA BRINGING AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH COLD AND WET WEATHER OVER ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW. PLEASE KEEP UPDATED ON THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM.

[LTHLBLU]

i wouldnt either, but its looking good