TSR March update forecast=15/8/3

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 1:48 pm

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

As always the Tropical Storm Risk folks issues a very interesting forecast that says more cooler than anticipated waters in the Tropical Atlantic is the cause that they lowered their forecast numbers from the Febuary update which were 17/8/4.It looks like they are following what our friend Doctorhurricane2003 said in his thread.Hey folks any little piece of news that is good we can take it right?

CHRISTY · #2 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 2:14 pm

i wonder if all this will hold true threw august september and october,we will have to see what happens. :roll:

Swimdude · #3 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 2:19 pm

I'm wondering why they're lowering the numbers... All signs point to another active season, so I thought. We shall see.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #4 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 2:20 pm

15 named storms is still comparatively active. As I have pointed out, the lower SST anomalies are pointing towards a much less active season compared to last year, which was insane.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 2:30 pm

My preliminary numbers for the season are 16/8/4 close to what TSR says. Now let's see what Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray and NOAA will say in their April and May outlooks to compare all 3 of them.But definitly it looks like a less busy season than the 2005 one that I use a word Ridicolus to describe it but it will be an active season neverless.

Doc yes I agree about the activity being much less than 2005 but it will be more active than an average season which normally is 9.3 named storms.

YouTube · #6 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 3:12 pm

How many of the big hurricanes that hit the U.S. last year can be absolutely attributed to the Atlantic Basin being so much above normal last season? Most of the worst damage was in the GOM coastal areas. The Cape Verde hurricanes were a non-issue. So I wonder what it will matter if temps are now near normal. Could be a very nasty landfall season without as many named storms overall.

MiamiensisWx · #7 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 3:15 pm

Very good points, hurricanetrack. That's what I fear and what I think will likely happen, including for southeast Florida.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #8 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 3:21 pm

The fact that we had 27 named storms can be contributed to the extreme SSTs, as well as the 3-4 Category 5 hurricanes that we had as well as their rapid intensification phases. The fact that they took, as well as the 2004 storms, took tracks closer to the US is based on the location of the Bermuda High. If last year we had more normal SSTs, we would very likely not have seen Dennis and Emily in July, and we probably would have only seen one of the Katrina-Rita-Wilma trio be as strong as it was.

ROCK · #9 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 3:51 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:The fact that we had 27 named storms can be contributed to the extreme SSTs, as well as the 3-4 Category 5 hurricanes that we had as well as their rapid intensification phases. The fact that they took, as well as the 2004 storms, took tracks closer to the US is based on the location of the Bermuda High. If last year we had more normal SSTs, we would very likely not have seen Dennis and Emily in July, and we probably would have only seen one of the Katrina-Rita-Wilma trio be as strong as it was.

I would agree. Remember though, we also had that trough set-up through the caribbean that contributed to lower pressures. This in turn help aid in developement.

#10 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 4:52 pm

I think that the main reason for the 27 named storms in 2005 had more to do with the much lower-than-average wind shear across the Caribbean Sea and Gulf than the above-normal SSTs. I've heard that trof in the central to western Caribbean Sea described as being similar to the monsoonal trof in the western Pacific which spawns so many typhoons in their season.

With the eastern Pacific cooling more in 2005, look for a stronger Bermuda high. TSR indicates that the projected trades will be a little stronger (stronger Bermuda high) and the SSTs a little cooler than in 2005. Thus, the lowered forecast numbers.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #11 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 4:55 pm

I believe though that the trough in the Caribbean was the result of increased Atlantic SSTs.

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 5:43 pm

The gulf is still quite warm though, so any storm that gets over this way will probably explode into a major quickly.

ROCK · #13 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 6:55 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The gulf is still quite warm though, so any storm that gets over this way will probably explode into a major quickly.

Hey what are you worried about....you'll be safe in FL..... :lol:

Extremeweatherguy · #14 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 7:59 pm

ROCK wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The gulf is still quite warm though, so any storm that gets over this way will probably explode into a major quickly.

Hey what are you worried about....you'll be safe in FL.....

lets hope (doubt it though). I will be back in Houston from time to time though, which basically means that I will have three shores (TX coast, and both FL coasts) to watch this season! :roll:

I will not be able to escape Houston's "doomsday" storm either as I am planning on being back in Houston for good by the peak of hurricane season. How fun.. :lol:

ROCK · #15 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Mar 06, 2006 8:03 pm

Oh so you will be back just in time to evacuated....lucky you... :lol:

TSR March update forecast=15/8/3

TSR March update forecast=15/8/3

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