Repeat of 2004 setup for Florida

[CHRISTY]

actually a picking the miami area because i think we are way overdue!either way if it came threw fortlauderdale as a strong hurricane we here would not escape the damage,its more of a touch and go thing.

[CHRISTY]

iam just thing its still way to early to tell what conditions we will have the the coming months.for all we know we may have lots of troughs this year to kick these monsters away.

[StormScanWx]

hopefully we wont have anything like this!but if the bermuda high parks itself the way iam thinking might happen..florida might be in trouble!

Not trying to be rude or anything, but Ivan made landfall in Baldwin County, ALABAMA.

[skysummit]

Yea...that's more like Dennis's landfall location above.

[MiamiensisWx]

iam just thing its still way to early to tell what conditions we will have the the coming months.for all we know we may have lots of troughs this year to kick these monsters away.

Unfortunately, I don't think we will have those troughs like 1996. I think the ridge will be split, preventing recurves and a Carolina season and increasing the threat to southeast Florida.

[SouthFloridawx]

iam just thing its still way to early to tell what conditions we will have the the coming months.for all we know we may have lots of troughs this year to kick these monsters away.

Unfortunately, I don't think we will have those troughs like 1996. I think the ridge will be split, preventing recurves and a Carolina season and increasing the threat to southeast Florida.

I hope not cape verde I like it here.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

That is just a really poorly drawn map of the U.S. ...the location is about right where Ivan made landfall, they for some reason wanted to include Baldwin County in the state of Florida

[MiamiensisWx]

The reason why I think so is because we have yet to see a direct major hit from the east in over 40 years. With this active cycle, I strongly believe we won't go much farther without a major hit from the east. What are your thoughts?

[gatorcane]

I agree with CapeVerdeWave. Southeast FL is long overdue for a major hit. Jeanne and Frances, although strong, were not in "South Florida" (Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade). A massive ridge is building in for the weekend and will allow a near summer-time regime to setup here with steady E winds and dry conditions.

[gtalum]

Just remember that "overdue" has nothing to do with landfall possibilities.

[MiamiensisWx]

I know, gtalum. Good point.

[gatorcane]

I hope you are right. Based on our 150 years of statistics though I'm not so sure.

[ROCK]

can you explain why you feel that way!and what signs can you see indicate something like this might take place in the near future.just wanted to know your opinion!

I think it may very likely happen because of these reasons...

1. In over 40 years, southeast Florida (Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade counties) has seen only two major hurricanes, both only in or near Miami-Dade County: Betsy (1965) and Andrew (1992). Palm Beach and Broward counties, meanwhile, have not seen major hits since 1947 and 1949.

2. In the last active cycle, lasting from the 1920s to the late 1940s, Florida - especially southeast Florida - was hit by hurricanes over and over again, including by several majors from the east. We are now back in an active cycle, yet we have not yet seen a major southeast Florida hit from the east. With the cycle continuing, it will be nearly impossible to escape without a major hit. Also, since it has been a long time, it may likely be very intense and around a Category Four with at least 145MPH winds.

Those are my main reasons and I feel strongly about it. What are your thoughts?

Same holds true for Texas but I am not going to say a cat 5 track into the Galveston is likely.

[gtalum]

I hope you are right. Based on our 150 years of statistics though I'm not so sure.

150 years is less than a blink of an eye in geological terms. That said, my point is not that a storm will or won't hit southeast Florida. It's only that statistics plays no part in that. The atnmosphere is a chaotic system, not an orderly one.

[MiamiensisWx]

Same holds true for Texas but I am not going to say a cat 5 track into the Galveston is likely.

Yeah... I know it depends on the setup. However, I feel it may be likely within the next few years. It is just my opinion.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't think it will be a 2004 setup. Instead I think it will be more of a 2005 setup, but instead aimed more so at the western Gulf and the east coast.

[ROCK]

I don't think it will be a 2004 setup. Instead I think it will be more of a 2005 setup, but instead aimed more at the western Gulf and the east coast.

I will have to agree with you on that point. Though FL does stick out there. They will probably see a couple this season.

[Extremeweatherguy]

hopefully we wont have anything like this!but if the bermuda high parks itself the way iam thinking might happen..florida might be in trouble!

Not trying to be rude or anything, but Ivan made landfall in Baldwin County, ALABAMA.

Also, the path for hurricane Charley is about 100+ miles too far south and east. Charley passed right over Orlando and out Daytona Beach. This map has Charley passing over southern Florida and never even reaching those areas.

[Windtalker1]

I don't think it will be a 2004 setup. Instead I think it will be more of a 2005 setup, but instead aimed more at the western Gulf and the east coast.

I will have to agree with you on that point. Though FL does stick out there. They will probably see a couple this season.

[Windtalker1]

hopefully we wont have anything like this!but if the bermuda high parks itself the way iam thinking might happen..florida might be in trouble!

Not trying to be rude or anything, but Ivan made landfall in Baldwin County, ALABAMA.

Also, the path for hurricane Charley is about 100+ miles too far south and east. Charley passed right over Orlando and out Daytona Beach. This map has Charley passing over southern Florida and never even reaching those areas.

I do not consider Lake Okeechobe South Florida.