What would have happened if Katrina hit 30 miles west?

[Audrey2Katrina]

I'd like to add to the debate of MSG and A2K, the winds of the 48 hrs. before landfall along the Miss. and SE. La. coast were from the NE according to the historical data.
So IMHO 30 degrees of more Lat. ie. ( coming in from the Yucatan channel)would have a far greater impact on both coast, including the GNO. SE winds piling up more water in the Ponchatrain basin.

Actually the worst surge for areas like St. Bernard and even the 9th ward, New Orleans East AND Gentilly were from the Lake Borgne basin. NOT the Pontchartrain--although IT came through London Ave. Canal breaches and 17th street. Dr. Gagliano (sp?) (geologist) who predicted this very scenario has asserted this today on the radio. As far as those "winds" the winds that created the monstrous surge were those from much earlier while it was a 5, and that surge did it's worst on areas it hit from directly South... not east... I am not discounting flooding, indeed I feel it would have been catastrophic ON the westbank... but I stick by my estimation that it wouldn't have been as bad "flood" wise on the eastbank.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

pretty much the Gulf and the Lake would have joined.

Doubt it seriously... the surge aside from having to move across many miles of inland marsh (which it would have, would have had to move over the Mississippi levees which are much higher than those at Pontchartrain... still, we agree to disagree.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Actually, MGC is on the money regarding Jefferson and St. Charles Parishes. Harvey Canal would have gone over, you have Bayou Segnette and Bayou Bourne that would have went over. As it was, these three threatened to go over with Rita.

Actually, we simply disagree, and may we NEVER have the opportunity to see who is/was right. The vast majority of "worst case scenaria" presented for New Orleans, regardless of category, have the storm coming in from the East and Southeast... NOT from the south.

Here's another thing just to consider. Betsy was a HUGE storm, very much like Katrina although "only" a 4 before landfall as opposed to a 5;.. she made landfall pretty much right at that 30 mi. further west position, and tracked N- NW from there... None of these cataclysmic scenaria depicted here happened... yes it was a little further west; and for the record I agree that Jefferson SOUTH of the river would've been inundated, as would be St. Charles; but she was, according to every record in the NHC archives very similar in many other ways. The worst case for New Orleans would be a storm entering the Borgne/Pontchartrain Basin from the SE, to E, not coming up on the border of Timbalier Bay and Barataria, to the South... my opinion, and I feel it's well founded.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

my guess: at least 90,000 to 125,000 dead

Based on the PROVEN numbers of people who remained in New Orleans and surrounding areas... I believe even Mr. Ortt made a prediction of such an enormous death toll in another thread

A2K

[Pearl River]

The 1947 storm was a category 1 storm. Any storm coming from the east towards Lake Ponchartrain is going to have a very difficult time getting strong due to land interaction on the north side of the circulation.

It wasn't until the Flood Control Act of 1965 that levees around New Orleans were built to what we consider cat 3 levels today. Add in subsidence, poor maintenance and Katrina = disaster. Plus, I want someone to tell me how 100 miles of levee can be visually inspected in less than 6 hours?

I have accepted Katrina being a cat 3. After helping my dad rebuild his home-still in progress-I don't care if it was a t.d. It's all very sad for everyone who experiences a storm and loses something or someone.

[zlaxier]

Doubt it seriously... the surge aside from having to move across many miles of inland marsh (which it would have, would have had to move over the Mississippi levees which are much higher than those at Pontchartrain...

I'm not sure it matters how high the levees are if they were built poorly....remember all the New Orleansflooding wasn't caused by overtopping of the levees. The levees and canals failed cause there were engineering flaws.

How do we know portions of the Mississippi River levee wouldn't have collapsed with the extreme water pressure pounding against it?

I frankly have very little confidence in how those levees were built.

[MGC]

I have little faith in an earthen levee too. Wave action will wash them away in no time. What is needed is a Galveston type seawall.....MGC

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Well Pearl, my point was people were bringing up tracks today from that direction, which would likely cause minor damage.

And A2K, that number is still way too high and is the product of overexaggeration and fear. You cannot prove how many deaths may have happened if something had gone a slightly different way. You can guess, but you cannot prove. We do know how many people stayed, that is correct, but we cannot prove if Katrina had come in 300 different ways what would have happened exactly.

[Pearl River]

I'm not sure it matters how high the levees are if they were built poorly....remember all the New Orleansflooding wasn't caused by overtopping of the levees. The levees and canals failed cause there were engineering flaws.

The actual levees along the lake held. It was the floodwalls that were in the canals that were breached.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Doubt it seriously... the surge aside from having to move across many miles of inland marsh (which it would have, would have had to move over the Mississippi levees which are much higher than those at Pontchartrain...

I'm not sure it matters how high the levees are if they were built poorly....remember all the New Orleansflooding wasn't caused by overtopping of the levees. The levees and canals failed cause there were engineering flaws.

How do we know portions of the Mississippi River levee wouldn't have collapsed with the extreme water pressure pounding against it?

I frankly have very little confidence in how those levees were built.

The "poorly" built levees were the ones along the canals (17th, Industrial, and London Ave.) NOT the Levees along Lake Pontchartrain which did exactly what they were expected to do.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Well Pearl, my point was people were bringing up tracks today from that direction, which would likely cause minor damage.

And A2K, that number is still way too high and is the product of overexaggeration and fear. You cannot prove how many deaths may have happened if something had gone a slightly different way. You can guess, but you cannot prove. We do know how many people stayed, that is correct, but we cannot prove if Katrina had come in 300 different ways what would have happened exactly.

I completely agree Doc, and if you'll go back to my original statement which you quoted, I did say "My GUESS"... admittedly... only a guess, wasn't trying to prove anything; but you gotta admit the thought of well over 100,000 trapped in homes with worse flooding than was seen, as well as much worse winds, almost certainly would have resulted in a much higher death toll-- a guess, to be sure...and I completely concede that most, if not all of what has been posted in here is based on speculation which has run the gamut.


A2K

[Pearl River]

Well Pearl, my point was people were bringing up tracks today from that direction, which would likely cause minor damage.

That's fine. I was just making a point about today's current levee situation as compared to what it may have been like back then. I don't think it would take that strong of a storm coming from that direction to cause damage either.

[ROCK]

I have little faith in an earthen levee too. Wave action will wash them away in no time. What is needed is a Galveston type seawall.....MGC

that they do.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I have little faith in an earthen levee too. Wave action will wash them away in no time. What is needed is a Galveston type seawall.....MGC

Hey, I'm ALL in favor of that!

A2K

[Jim Cantore]

Wind damage would have been much worse and the flooding would have been much worse

[skysummit]

Wind damage would have been much worse and the flooding would have been much worse

I guess that's one everyone could agree on!

[Audrey2Katrina]

Stacy Stewart; I believe it was he, maybe the guy from LSU; anyway, they did show a computerized projection of a full five five at landfall (thankfully a rather unlikely scenario) and the overall inundation from a massive surge. (Didn't elaborate on the direction tho').

Wasn't a pretty map at all... anyone in the metro area who would consider staying for one of those would really need help--now.

A2K

[Camille_2_Katrina]

just a no win situation... anyway you look at it

C2K

[Lindaloo]

St. Charles was spared from flooding. My cousin fled from that Parish because she lives about a block and a half from the levee. She came here to Pascagoula and was swimming in water anyway. I thought she perished. But, that is another story.

[tailgater]

http://hurricane.lsu.edu/floodpredictio ... adcirc.pdf
This is only a prediction and could easily be off by 3or 4 ft. but you can plainly see the much larger impact on the GNO area, than Katrina had.

This fake storm is called Pam and was created by LSU, a Cat 3 ( hope it was Cat 5 earlier). in 2004

http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.e ... 0south.jpg