We can ONLY HOPE

[PTrackerLA]

Looking real good. Keep your fingers crossed out there!

[azsnowman]

This is REFRESHING TOO This is only the 2nd HWO in 7 months.....still not getting my hopes up JUST yet but it's starting to sound better and better


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
150 PM MST MON MAR 6 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-070700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
150 PM MST MON MAR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD PRODUCE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE FOR OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM OVER THE WEST...GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL FOUR TO FIVE DAYS OUT. HOWEVER SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING
WERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AND SPECIFIC SNOW LEVELS ARE
UNCLEAR. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM COULD BE MUCH
COLDER WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000 TO 4000 FEET WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF BEING ABLE TO TAP INTO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. CURRENT
MODELS ARE INDICATING AROUND AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT POSSIBLE
ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE KAIBAB AND COCONINO PLATEAUS...MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
OCCURRING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. STAY TUNED THIS WEEK FOR LATER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.

[arizonasooner]

CHANCE OF PRECIP INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN. BY THIS TIME...THE LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER CNTRL CA...WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO AZ. SEVERAL VORT LOBES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW...WITH 700-500MB OMEGA VALUES OF 25 MICROBARS/SECOND OVER S-CENTRAL AZ BY LATE SUN MORNING.

This from the PHX afternoon discussion.... Keep your fingers crossed - the streak may be on its last legs....

[azsnowman]

CHANCE OF PRECIP INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN. BY THIS TIME...THE LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER CNTRL CA...WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO AZ. SEVERAL VORT LOBES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW...WITH 700-500MB OMEGA VALUES OF 25 MICROBARS/SECOND OVER S-CENTRAL AZ BY LATE SUN MORNING.

This from the PHX afternoon discussion.... Keep your fingers crossed - the streak may be on its last legs....

Let's hope so........still on track, starting to think that it MIGHT actually HAPPEN!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

WHEN THIS STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION AND SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO TYPICALLY START AROUND 7000 FEET BUT LOWER QUICKLY TO NEAR 5000 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. A MUCH COLDER LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE A SHIFT FROM THE RATHER TEMPERATE CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED AS OF LATE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE SAME PERIOD. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE ANALYZING SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR. &&

[aveosmth]

Now its starting to get VERY interesting..this from the Los Angeles NWS

COMBINE THIS WITH THICKNESSES THAT DROP TO 528 OR LOWER BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SNOW TO VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS, POSSIBLY DOWN TO 1000-1500 FEET

Now we're talking the some areas of the L.A. valleys!!!! The airport (Whiteman Airport about 7 miles NE of Burbank) I take flying lessons is exactly at 1000 ft. We're only 4 days away & the models are really starting to come into agreement & that's even more encouraging.

The SFO NWS stated that snow levels could reach sea level in convective activity on Saturday...Wow!

[Aslkahuna]

Well hopefully the GFS is better at 96 hours out for CA than it is for AZ. That said, we've had thunder and rain here today which NOBODY-models included had for us today on yesterday's runs.

Steve

[azsnowman]

ALRIGHT STEVE, DON'T BOGART THE RAIN THERE BUDDY!

This is the second time that you've received some rain is it not in past few weeks when no one else got it? SO.....what's YOUR secret Steve, huh, come on pal, give it up "LOL!

[jasons2k]

From CNN today:

Spring brings fears of early wildfires
Officials worry in drought-stricken Southwest

Tuesday, March 7, 2006; Posted: 3:00 p.m. EST (20:00 GMT)

LAS VEGAS (AP) -- The statistics in the Southwest read like a laundry list of bad news: Phoenix has been without rain for four months. Tucson is suffering through its driest winter on record, as is Albuquerque, New Mexico. Some Tucson homeowners have actually watered cactus plants to keep them alive.

And that's raising a serious worry: The Southwest's spring wildfire season could come early.

"The conditions right now are about the worst we've seen," said Jim Payne, spokesman for the Forest Service's Southwest region. "It's already brittle dry. All we need is ignitions to see potential fires."

While much of the West has above-average snowpack this year, Arizona and New Mexico have not been so lucky. Those states, along with parts of Alaska, Wyoming, Colorado, Nevada, Utah and California, are at above-normal risk for wildfires, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

In Arizona last month, a fire burned more than 4,000 acres (1,600 hectares) in the Tonto National Forest, stirring up nerves because it was the earliest large fire ever. In New Mexico, a grass fire of more than 26,000 acres (10,400 hectares) forced the evacuation last week of a small farming-and-ranching community.

Add the dry conditions and forest managers have good reason for concern. Already the Forest Service has imposed the earliest fire restrictions ever in Arizona and New Mexico and received additional funding for the fire season in those states.

"We're kind of sitting on the edge of our chairs," Payne said.

In a way, the Southwest's fire season, which usually begins slowly in April and in earnest in May and June, never really ended from last year, with big range fires burning in November and December in New Mexico.

Last year, more than 8.6 million acres (3.44 million hectares) of state and federal lands were scorched across the country, the most since the record year of 2000.

The dry weather has also forced some weather-dependent businesses to layoff workers. At the Arizona Snowbowl ski resort near Flagstaff, 400 seasonal employees are out of work so far, and the resort has been unable to open for the first time, said resort spokesman Dave Smith. About 30 full-time employees are spending their days clearing brush and painting trim.

"It's not very optimistic at all," said Douglas LeComte, drought specialist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

A rainstorm did find its way to Arizona last week, but not a drop fell in Phoenix.

Even if a little rain were to fall now, it likely would do more harm than good.

That's because last year the Southwest enjoyed a wet season, allowing grasses to grow to waist high. Now they're dry and primed to burn. A little rain would be enough to spur more grass growth, but not enough to put moisture into trees and brush.

"What you need is not just one storm," said Rick Ochoa, national fire weather program manager for the Bureau of Land Management in Boise, Idaho. "You need a number of storms occurring over a month or two to really put a big dent in the fire season."

March could bring a slightly better chance for rain in the Southwest, but LeComte does not see much of a break in the drought.

"The Southwest is going to be the really big concern," he said. "It's looking like it's going to be dry for most of the spring."

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed

[azsnowman]

Well........

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 072153 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 230 PM MST TUE MAR 07 2006 .SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING WEST COAST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME MEASURABLE SNOW LIKELY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A COLD AND POTENTIALLY WET STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LIFT WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT THE KAIBAB AND COCONINO PLATEAUS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH LIFT LINGERING IN THAT AREA THROUGH 15Z. BEST LIFT COMES INTO THE FLAGSTAFF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z AND THEN SATURATION OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST ICE MICRO-PHYSICS WILL OCCUR FOR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST MICRO PHYSICS OCCURRING IN THE FLAGSTAFF AREA AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A STRONG PV ANOMALY WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE MID-LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG PV ANOMALY. THE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO COME INTO FOCUS BETWEEN 09Z AND THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF AFTER 14Z. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...HENCE THE REASON FOR THE LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. FAIRLY UNSTABLE IN THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY IMPULSE IN SNOW INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BETWEEN 15Z TO 21Z BEFORE STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO OVER-RIDE THE INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING ON THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF ONE DAY BREAK IN THE PRECIP...THEN THE FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME CYCLONIC ON FRIDAY WITH LAPSE RATES RETURNING BACK TO THE 6.0 - 7.5 DEG C/KM RANGE WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH THROUGH WEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. FIRST MAJOR SHORTWAVE TO SPLINTER OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND LIFT NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT AND FAIRLY INTENSE 12 HOUR PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3500 TO 4000 FEET.

[azsnowman]

From CNN today:

Spring brings fears of early wildfires
Officials worry in drought-stricken Southwest

Tuesday, March 7, 2006; Posted: 3:00 p.m. EST (20:00 GMT)

LAS VEGAS (AP) -- The statistics in the Southwest read like a laundry list of bad news: Phoenix has been without rain for four months. Tucson is suffering through its driest winter on record, as is Albuquerque, New Mexico. Some Tucson homeowners have actually watered cactus plants to keep them alive.

And that's raising a serious worry: The Southwest's spring wildfire season could come early.

"The conditions right now are about the worst we've seen," said Jim Payne, spokesman for the Forest Service's Southwest region. "It's already brittle dry. All we need is ignitions to see potential fires."

While much of the West has above-average snowpack this year, Arizona and New Mexico have not been so lucky. Those states, along with parts of Alaska, Wyoming, Colorado, Nevada, Utah and California, are at above-normal risk for wildfires, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

In Arizona last month, a fire burned more than 4,000 acres (1,600 hectares) in the Tonto National Forest, stirring up nerves because it was the earliest large fire ever. In New Mexico, a grass fire of more than 26,000 acres (10,400 hectares) forced the evacuation last week of a small farming-and-ranching community.

Add the dry conditions and forest managers have good reason for concern. Already the Forest Service has imposed the earliest fire restrictions ever in Arizona and New Mexico and received additional funding for the fire season in those states.

"We're kind of sitting on the edge of our chairs," Payne said.

In a way, the Southwest's fire season, which usually begins slowly in April and in earnest in May and June, never really ended from last year, with big range fires burning in November and December in New Mexico.

Last year, more than 8.6 million acres (3.44 million hectares) of state and federal lands were scorched across the country, the most since the record year of 2000.

The dry weather has also forced some weather-dependent businesses to layoff workers. At the Arizona Snowbowl ski resort near Flagstaff, 400 seasonal employees are out of work so far, and the resort has been unable to open for the first time, said resort spokesman Dave Smith. About 30 full-time employees are spending their days clearing brush and painting trim.

"It's not very optimistic at all," said Douglas LeComte, drought specialist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

A rainstorm did find its way to Arizona last week, but not a drop fell in Phoenix.

Even if a little rain were to fall now, it likely would do more harm than good.

That's because last year the Southwest enjoyed a wet season, allowing grasses to grow to waist high. Now they're dry and primed to burn. A little rain would be enough to spur more grass growth, but not enough to put moisture into trees and brush.

"What you need is not just one storm," said Rick Ochoa, national fire weather program manager for the Bureau of Land Management in Boise, Idaho. "You need a number of storms occurring over a month or two to really put a big dent in the fire season."

March could bring a slightly better chance for rain in the Southwest, but LeComte does not see much of a break in the drought.

"The Southwest is going to be the really big concern," he said. "It's looking like it's going to be dry for most of the spring."

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed

Thanks for posting this........this is what I've been trying to state for the past 2 months and when I did, I got BLASTED by SOME.......SO

All this upcoming system will do is make the weeds/grasses grow and add more fuel to the fire but ya know WHAT? We will take ANY moisture at THIS point in time, ANYTHING!!

Dennis

[JenyEliza]

Is this moisture in AZ?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[JenyEliza]

And what about this? Hmmm.

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/1km/F ... IS1FLG.GIF

I don't wanna put a hex on things...but that looks like something we earthlings call H2O.

[azsnowman]

Most of that at this point in time is Viagra...........errr, VIRGA

NOW......just heard the local met on the CBS affiliate SAY and I qoute, "This system tonight will moisten up the atmosphere and prepare it for the system Saturday night into Sunday, there's a GOOD chance that the White Mountains COULD see OVER 12-18"!"

Ya know what, I'm HOLDING HIM to THAT

Dennis

[LTHLBLU]

its looking good!

[azsnowman]

Well......I am SO glad I didn't get my hopes up ONCE again, as usual, the system tracked to our north leaving us with NO clouds, and near hurricane force wind gusts AH well........next time

Dennis

[azsnowman]

Now it's onward to the worst fire season in the history of the world Just wish we would get it OVER with and have the BIG ONE before the summer people arrive and we have to evacuate 53,000+ residents this year

[azsnowman]

Off and on snow showers at the moment, not enough to get the windshield wet but HEY......at least it's SOMETHING (maybe it's not snow......could be ashes from someones woodstove)

Dennis

[JenyEliza]

Off and on snow showers at the moment, not enough to get the windshield wet but HEY......at least it's SOMETHING (maybe it's not snow......could be ashes from someones woodstove)

Dennis

[azsnowman]

"HOLY CRAP!" Just had the most AWESOME "Thundersnow" event!! LOTS and LOTSA CG lightning......of course, this is NOT good, with the bone dry conditions, around 1200-1300 hrs tomorrow when the air temps heat up and the winds kick up to advisory level, this COULD be the BIG ONE!

Dennis

[LTHLBLU]

its great youre getting some tho!