http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
COMMENTARY:
After a steady cooling trend in the central to eastern tropical Pacific during late 2005 and January 2006, there was a slight rise in temperatures during February. Although individual weeks may have seen the anomalies dip below La Niña thresholds, at monthly and longer timescales the ENSO situation is still neutral. The latest weekly values of the Pacific NINO indices are +1.1°C in NINO2 (far east), −0.3°C in NINO3 (eastern Pacific), −0.6°C in NINO3.4 (central Pacific) and −0.4°C in NINO4 (western Pacific). Two of the models predict a brief period of weak La Niña conditions between about March and June.
We have to wait 2-3 months to see the data that the anomalies bring to look if the Weak La Nina will prevail thru the summer or neutral ENSO will return.
Majority of models forecast Neutral ENSO thru October
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weatherwindow
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as you and i have mentioned the bom forecasts have been somewhat suspect, tending to error on the warm side. i will stand behind my contention that we will see a significant la nina thru the height of the atlantic season. the average length of the cool phase of the enso cycle is 12-18 months...if, indeed, this la nina began in october, the cool conditions will likely persist thru the aug-oct period. while the 12-18 month period is certainly not etched in granite, it is a distinct possibility that it may apply this cycle....rich
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