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TexasStooge
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#881 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:41 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CST WED MAR 01 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI SEWD INTO NRN OH AND WRN PA
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 020520Z - 021115Z
FREEZING RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...PRIOR TO A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW. HOURLY RATES APPROACHING .05 TO .10 INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN CONVECTIVE BURSTS. FARTHER TO THE SE OVER NRN OH
INTO WRN PA...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
00Z OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW POTENT
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
02/12Z. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
SWRN OR W-CNTRL IL WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING GENERALLY EWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A COMPLEX PRECIPITATION SHIELD WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AS OF 05Z...WITH A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF
MODERATE FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NRN MN INTO
LOWER MI. WHILE MUCH OF THIS IS SNOW...A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED FROM NEAR OSH EWD TO FNT AND JXN.
VAD AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND WAA ABOVE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ARE LARGELY DRIVING THIS BAND OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH IS OCCURRING OVER
SERN WI WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE .05 TO .07 LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. HERE...IT APPEARS THAT STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DEEPER-LAYER LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTIVE CHARACTER OF ECHOES. WITH
TIME...EXPECT THESE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BURSTS TO SHIFT EWD INTO
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...LOCALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITATION RATES. FREEZING RAIN...MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS MELTING EFFECTS AND INCREASED
DYNAMIC FORCING COOL THE THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN.
OVER PORTIONS OF NRN OH INTO WRN PA...INCREASING WAA ALONG NOSE OF
40-45 KT SWLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AFTER
02/06Z WITH THE PRIMARY TYPE BEING FREEZING RAIN. RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES OBSERVED OVER FAR SERN OH INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR BURSTS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS.
..MEAD.. 03/02/2006
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
43878668 44058581 43228321 42098068 41647977 41017898
40387892 40177964 40648164 41058291 41708484 42238583
42758661 43088707 43398708
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TexasStooge
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#882 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:41 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CST THU MAR 02 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NRN MD/DE...NJ
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 021004Z - 021600Z
FREEZING RAIN WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CNTRL PA EARLY
TODAY AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST TO WRN NJ THROUGH DAYBREAK. POCKETS OF
MODERATE ICING COULD OCCUR WITH GLAZE AMOUNTS POSSIBLY REACHING 0.25
INCHES THROUGH 18Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREEZING RAIN COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER ICING.
A STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE WAS UNDERCUTTING A MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES EARLY TODAY. AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH JET EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IMPULSE AND
ENTRANCE REGION OF DOWNSTREAM JET CORE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND HAVE
ENHANCED SLOPED ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENYS. DEEP LAYER LIFT ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO NJ AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE DEVELOPS SEWD AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
MOVES EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT TO NRN VA.
SREF AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
WEST-TO-EAST ZONE...FROM CNTRL PA TO NJ...WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE NEWD ATOP A WELL ENTRENCHED
SUBFREEZING SURFACE LAYER RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. POCKETS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ORIGINATING WITHIN A PLUME OF WARMER AIR ACROSS MIDWEST AND
PLAINS...COUPLED WITH FORCED ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT...COULD
ALSO INDUCE ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COULD
RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER GLAZE AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...BULK OF THE
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD REMAIN STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH THE MORNING.
..CARBIN.. 03/02/2006
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...
40037841 40257901 40367940 40607998 41158025 41448041
41878010 41897935 41917868 41877812 41847735 41687628
41497540 40927431 39907453 39597549 39667689 39797739
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TexasStooge
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#883 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:42 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 AM CST THU MAR 02 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...SRN/SERN NY...CT...RI
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 021406Z - 022000Z
SNOWFALL INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING FROM NERN PA
ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN CT. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 1
INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC AREA.
SURFACE LOW....CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR SWRN PA...IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP EWD TO NJ COAST WHILE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS A PAIR OF PHASING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH SWRN
PERIPHERY OF DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER ERN QUEBEC. MODEST WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WERE ALREADY UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM THE
OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA AND NJ. A LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT HAS
RESULTED IN PRIMARILY MIXED PRECIPITATION /FREEZING RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS/ ACROSS PA. HOWEVER...COLD AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
MASS EXISTS ACROSS SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL BE DRAWN
INTO THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW LATER THIS MORNING. COUPLED WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL
LIKELY BE OFFSET AND BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD FORM IN THE NRN/NWRN
QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE.
LATEST SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FORECASTING A STRIP OF AT LEAST 1 INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES FROM NY SRN TIER TO CT THROUGH 18Z AND THIS
APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
..CARBIN.. 03/02/2006
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
41477559 41877654 42177636 42347590 42067424 42027303
41857229 41727161 41397133 41017211 41047361
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TexasStooge
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#884 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Mar 02, 2006 4:44 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CST THU MAR 02 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 022003Z - 030000Z
A PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH UP 1 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS SRN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND AND FAR NRN PA. A LARGE AREA
OF PERIODIC FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EWD ACROSS ERN PA...NRN NJ...SRN NY AND LONG ISLAND.
LATEST ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DUAL-CENTERED SFC LOW FROM FAR NRN
VA EXTENDING EWD OFF THE COAST OF DELAWARE. NORTH OF THIS SFC
LOW...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS NY AND PA WITH
THE FREEZING LINE LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURG EXTENDING EWD
INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. AS THE NOSE OF AN IMPRESSIVE 100 KT
MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE FREEZING LINE SHOW A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB. THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY ENHANCING FREEZING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS COOL AFTER DARK.
NORTH OF THIS ZONE...A BAND OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT
EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUNCHES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND.
..BROYLES.. 03/02/2006
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PHI...
41597814 41847836 42227836 42637810 42877726 42837501
42757325 42757176 42647090 42207028 41607010 41267028
41047083
41557810 41087713 40757556 40637427 40627265 40807137
40967081
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TexasStooge
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#885 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Mar 04, 2006 7:12 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CST SAT MAR 04 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND FAR SW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 042003Z - 042230Z
ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z OVER ERN
NM...SPREADING INTO FAR WRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. A WW MAY BE NECESSARY BY 22Z.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING WITHIN SFC TROUGH NEAR
CLOVIS SWWD TO THE SACRAMENTO MTNS IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT.
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED ACROSS MUCH OF SERN NM BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD NEAR 50. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REMAINS WHERE IT HAS HEATED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
PRIMARY EFFECTS OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING
ALONG WITH MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY.
OBSERVED PROFILERS AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOWS FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE. STEEP
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FOSTER HAIL GROWTH. TORNADO
THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL GIVEN 20F+ SURFACE T/TD SPREADS ALONG WITH
ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER...ANY SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD INTERACT WITH STRONGER HELICITY FARTHER
E WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY CAPPED...BUT MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TO ENHANCE
ROTATION.
..JEWELL.. 03/04/2006
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
35330420 35900367 36120328 36130279 36040253 35870232
34700228 32780235 30740271 30250349 30390396 31050483
31840490 32700520 34070518 34710469
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TexasStooge
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#886 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Mar 04, 2006 7:13 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CST SAT MAR 04 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NM/WRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37...
VALID 042316Z - 050045Z
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS LIKELY. CONTINUE WW.
SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG...ON WESTERN FRINGE OF NARROW MOIST TONGUE ADVECTING OUT
OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AXIS TO
THIS POINT HAS GENERALLY BEEN CAPPED BY MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES. HOWEVER...AS
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES... FORCING ON TAIL END OF SYSTEM MAY SUPPRESS INHIBITION
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
02-03Z TIME FRAME. A VIGOROUS CELL IS ALREADY ONGOING NORTHWEST OF
AMARILLO...AND ADDITIONAL CELLS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD
ALONG DRY LINE INTO LEE COUNTY NEW MEXICO. SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 03/04/2006
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
34480387 35000314 35440268 35830233 35710168 35240178
34310179 33820183 32990218 32440227 32010262 31590300
31640363 32020410 32650412 33360340 33880351 34150357
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TexasStooge
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#887 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Mar 04, 2006 11:10 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 PM CST SAT MAR 04 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NM/W TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37...
VALID 050117Z - 050215Z
WW 0037 MAY NOT BE NEEDED MUCH BEYOND THE 02Z TIME FRAME.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO COOL/STABILIZE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS LEADING EDGE
OF MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE
FURTHER. AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL MAY
STILL DEVELOP WEST NORTHWEST OF MIDLAND INTO AREAS WEST OF LUBBOCK
THROUGH 02-03Z...BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE THEREAFTER.
..KERR.. 03/05/2006
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
36040173 36060105 35440110 34830154 33750184 32870215
31930299 32110365 32710371 34530256
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TexasStooge
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#888 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Mar 05, 2006 11:07 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CST SUN MAR 05 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND FAR SWRN WI
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 050632Z - 051230Z
A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS ERN
IA...NWRN IL AND FAR SWRN WI OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HRLY LIQUID
ACCUMULATION RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.10 IN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ERN
IA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION OVER SRN/CENTRAL IA SWD INTO NRN MO. EWD MOVEMENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 3 KM/S. 06Z SURFACE WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES OVER ERN IA AND NWRN IL/SWRN WI WERE IN THE 28-32
DEGREE RANGE...GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOW DEWPTS IN THE TEENS/MID 20S.
THUS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION...A CHANGE FROM LIGHT
RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER ONSET IS EXPECTED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PTYPE ALGORITHMS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE OVER ERN IA...DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED
AROUND 850 MB. FURTHER EAST OVER NWRN IL/FAR SWRN WI...A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE WARM LAYER IS LESSER OR
NON-EXISTENT. DUE TO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT /300 J/KG OF
MUCAPE ON THE 00Z OMAHA SOUNDING/ MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES IN
EXCESS OF 0.10 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE OVER ERN IA.
..CROSBIE.. 03/05/2006
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
41818964 42678972 43029032 43339113 43239153 43129194
42599233 42209221 41719206 41119169 40959114 40889080
40899033 41308971
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TexasStooge
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#889 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Mar 05, 2006 7:17 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0438 PM CST SUN MAR 05 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN AR / EXTREME SERN OK AND NERN TX /
FAR NW MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 052238Z - 060115Z
SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH...AND WEST
OF RELATIVE COLD BUBBLE ACROSS MO AND AR. SFC-850 MB WIND FIELDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS UPPER WAVE MOVES SEWD ACROSS AR. THE VEERED
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO POINTS E OF
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...MAINLY ACROSS SRN AR...WHILE COOLING ALOFT
HELPS TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES IN CLOUD LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ABOUT 500-750 J/KG MUCAPE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS. THUS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..JEWELL.. 03/05/2006
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
34889015 33259064 33199397 33129579 33569617 34329470
34879389 34889345
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TexasStooge
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#890 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Mar 07, 2006 2:26 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO...WRN IA...EXTREME NERN
KS...SERN SD...SWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 071623Z - 071830Z
TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z IN NNW-SSE
ORIENTED BAND FROM SERN SD AND SWRN MN SEWD TO W-CENTRAL MO...MOVING
NEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN IA...NWRN-W-CENTRAL MO AND SWRN
MN. ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER NEITHER
ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT NOR WW ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO WARM FRONTAL
ZONE NEAR 700 MB. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED AROUND 700 MB BASED
ON EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.
PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY RAISED LIFTED TO LFC AND
SATURATION...BENEATH 7.5 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORT
ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEARS 30-40 KT ARE
EVIDENT WHEN USING ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS CORRESPONDING TO LAYERS
THAT INCLUDE 700 MB LEVEL. ALTHOUGH VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS NOT
LIKELY GIVEN LIMITED BUOYANCY AND MRGL EFFECTIVE SHEAR...RELATIVELY
DRY SUBCONVECTIVE LAYER ATOP COOL/STABLE SFC AIR MASS MAY INHIBIT
SUBCLOUD MELTING AND THUS AID HAIL SURVIVAL TO SFC.
..EDWARDS.. 03/07/2006
ATTN...WFO...MPX...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
37879455 38569477 39999542 42209633 43659719 44029719
44399686 44429623 44379573 44199525 43669464 43139399
41989358 40529309 39129307 38279330 37959423
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TexasStooge
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#891 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:44 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THRU W CNTRL MO/NE KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 072316Z - 080115Z
NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR BROADER SCALE SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FOCUSED IN ZONE OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NOW SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI TOWARD WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING.
WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PRIMARY NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...ACROSS AREA NEAR/SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE. BASE OF ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CLOSER TO 850
MB THAN 700 MB...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.
HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY GREATER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 1000
J/KG...WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
MID-LEVEL COOLING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IMPULSE...AND
ONSET OF INCREASING LOWER MID/TROPOSPHERIC IN CREST OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... ARE EVENTUALLY
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE
KANSAS CITY MO/TOPEKA KS AREA. THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
03Z...MORE LIKELY THEREAFTER.
..KERR.. 03/07/2006
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...
40679336 41109198 40799072 39509062 38929096 38809276
38569432 38629550 38969562 39409570 39699482 40219432
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TexasStooge
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#892 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:45 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL OK INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 072349Z - 080115Z
TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A WW.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...WITH BROAD MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE IN
WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HOWEVER...NARROW AXIS OF MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXISTS...AND WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
IS ONGOING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THIS COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY 02-03Z.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE SEEMS TO BE NEAR OR TO THE
SOUTH/EAST OF WICHITA...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH
MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARY RISK SEEMS
TO BE LARGE HAIL.
..KERR.. 03/07/2006
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
37559754 38339677 38749598 38289507 37029522 36489562
36369665 36579757
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TexasStooge
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#893 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:45 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 080010Z - 080115Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT NEED FOR A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AT THE PRESENT TIME.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG DRY LINE NEAR THE
FORT STOCKTON AREA. LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS GENERALLY WEAK...
BUT FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY AND WEAKENED INHIBITION IN PEAK HEATING HAVE
APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY. WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR
SO...INHIBITION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH ONSET OF SURFACE
COOLING. DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
COULD OFFSET THIS MITIGATING FACTOR...MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY
SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED.
..KERR.. 03/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
31140263 31490195 30820130 30350158 30140205 30100251
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TexasStooge
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#894 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:45 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS INTO NRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38...
VALID 080323Z - 080530Z
CONTINUE WW 38. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW TO THE EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO
AREA.
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW ONGOING NEAR THE TOPEKA/
ST. JOSEPH/KANSAS CITY AREAS...WHERE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED ON NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE...IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY MOIST INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION
...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS
WHICH WILL BE BASED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z AND
BEYOND...IN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM...BECOMING QUASI
STATIONARY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR ACROSS MISSOURI.
DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
THREAT. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TRAINING CONVECTION
COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A PROBLEM.
..KERR.. 03/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
38979661 39479597 39779480 40039302 39839170 39219103
38829105 38599157 38469321 38019530 38259647
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TexasStooge
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#895 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:40 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN KS/SW MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38...
VALID 080348Z - 080515Z
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
MID-LEVEL COOLING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INFLUENCE
OF UPPER JET STREAK TOPPING CREST OF SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT STRONGER FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SHIFTING
EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WW 38...EAST OF THE
PONCA CITY AREA BY 06Z...AND EAST OF BARTLESVILLE INTO THE JOPLIN
AREA BY 09Z. VEERING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW
OF MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY BE BASED NEAR THE
SURFACE...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY
THREAT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
..KERR.. 03/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
36579813 37179745 37559636 37799510 37249452 36769483
36549553 36229616 36079699 36069808
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#896 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:41 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0932 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...N-CENTRAL/NERN
TX...W-CENTRAL/SWRN AR...EXTREME NWRN LA
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 081532Z - 081630Z
1630Z DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL MDT
RISK FOR SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION -- MAINLY
AFTER 09/06Z. POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR DAMAGING WIND AND
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC
FRONT ACROSS OUTLINED REGION. THIS WILL CARRY OVER AND EXPAND
GEOGRAPHICALLY INTO 1730Z DAY-2 OUTLOOK...WHICH ALSO WILL BE
UPGRADED TO MDT RISK FROM THIS AREA NEWD THRU SEWD ACROSS LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION. MORE DETAILS ARE FORTHCOMING IN SPC DAY-1 AND DAY-2
OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.
..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
33259346 32839373 32279436 31889515 31869564 32039613
32329652 32649659 33269652 34509582 35349479 35459397
35259340 34889316 34299309
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#897 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:42 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN KS...NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 081741Z - 082015Z
POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE DURING
NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW.
SFC MESOANALYSES OVER PAST FEW HOURS SHOW WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO...E THRU ESE SFC LOW. AT 17Z...SHARPLY
DEFINED WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SFC LOW NEAR MHK...ESEWD ACROSS
WRN/SRN PORTIONS KC METRO AREA...THEN CURVING SWD OVER WRN OZARKS
REGION. EXPECT SFC CYCLONE TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT MORE AND MOVE NEWD
TOWARD STJ REGION THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD OVER MO VALLEY BETWEEN FNB-MCI. DRYLINE -- ANALYZED AT
17Z FROM POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY KS SWWD TO BETWEEN END-PNC -- SHOULD
MOVE EWD IN STEP WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC LOW...AND WILL FORM WRN
BOUND FOR SEVERE THREAT.
AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT...AND E OF DRYLINE...IS BECOMING
FAVORABLY UNSTABLE...WITH VIS IMAGERY AND OBS SHOWING CLEARING S OF
WARM FRONT. CINH WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS SFC TEMPS HEAT INTO MID 70S
WITH 55-60 DEG F DEW POINTS...PER MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC/ETA
SOUNDINGS. THIS MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT 2-3
HOURS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ENHANCEMENT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
DRYLINE/WARM FRONT NEAR DEEPENING LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF THIS FRONT AS WELL...PER LATEST VWP/PROFILER
TRENDS. ALONG WARM FRONT AND E OF SFC LOW...MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE WITH 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS
NEAR 60 KT...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN ANY TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP.
..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
38499508 38539633 39749563 40329507 40609452 40229339
39439280 38769303
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#898 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:42 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...WRN/NRN AR...EXTREME SERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 081825Z - 082030Z
TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS NRN/WRN AR...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MOVING NEWD FROM
SERN OK. MAIN THREAT THROUGH 21Z SHOULD BE HAIL. EXISTING ACTIVITY
OVER NERN AR SHOULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MO AND MAY PRODUCE
HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS BEFORE WEAKENING.
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500
J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTED BY STRONG WAA IN 800-850 MB
LAYER WHERE ACTIVITY IS ROOTED ATTM. 50-70 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE SHEAR THROUGH CAPE BEARING LAYER...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND HAIL PRODUCTION. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING WILL
BE SLOW OVER THIS REGION BECAUSE OF THICK CLOUD COVER...COMBINATION
OF GRADUAL DIABATIC WARMING AND SFC WAA MAY RESULT IN EFFECTIVE
LIFTED LAYER EXTENDING DOWN TO SFC ONCE TEMPS REACH MID 70S F...MOST
PROBABLE FROM ABOUT 21Z ONWARD. WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MAY
DEVELOP FROM SERN OK ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR IN RESPONSE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING S OF MAIN PRECIP AREA. ALTHOUGH MODELS
INDICATE CAPPING WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SFC PARCELS...SUCH HEATING
AND POTENTIAL LIFT COULD INTRODUCE SOME SFC-BASED SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...A SITUATION THAT WILL WARRANT
ADDITIONAL MONITORING.
..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
34859238 34209526 35909425 36449144 37308958 36428952
35299081 34999182
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#899 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:43 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 081834Z - 082230Z
SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 21Z WITH UP TO 2 IN/HR RATES
IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG FRONT RANGE.
WEAK SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS WINDS BACK AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WHICH WILL KEEP PROFILES SATURATED WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL MANAGE
TO COOL DESPITE THIS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS.
GIVEN SEVERAL HOURS OF SATURATED AND COOLING PROFILES ALONG WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...2-4 HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE LIKELY.
..JEWELL.. 03/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...
40940582 41130561 41080521 41020490 40880473 40660466
40500468 40150465 39920456 39680446 39480436 38880481
38820507 38970537 39860584 40530583
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#900 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:44 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL TX INTO SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 081953Z - 082200Z
WE ARE MONITORING THE DRYLINE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 50S E OF THE
DRYLINE. 18Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A RELATIVELY DEEP AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS NEAR 10.5 G/KG AND 850 DEWPOINT OF
11.9 C...HOWEVER CAPPED. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXIST FARTHER WEST WITH
LITTLE SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER CIN REMAINING.
AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS FORMED IN ADVANCE OF UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL WITH A STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE MCD AREA NWWD. IN ADDITION...AREA WIND
PROFILERS INDICATE LOW LEVEL WINDS / 850 MB / BEGINNING TO BACK
WHICH WILL HELP TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE NWWD BENEATH INCREASINGLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST 18Z NAM AS WELL AS 18Z RUC
MODELS BOTH PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX BETWEEN
21-00Z. GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AS WELL AS INCREASING
HELICITY LATE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY/ACCELERATION.
..JEWELL.. 03/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
35109698 34489721 32209849 31839903 31229984 31100023
31630057 32619999 33629904 34759841 35039824 35519749
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