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#881 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:41 am

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 PM CST WED MAR 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI SEWD INTO NRN OH AND WRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 020520Z - 021115Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...PRIOR TO A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND
   EVENTUALLY SNOW.  HOURLY RATES APPROACHING .05 TO .10 INCH CAN BE
   EXPECTED WITHIN CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  FARTHER TO THE SE OVER NRN OH
   INTO WRN PA...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY
   MORNING.
   
   00Z OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW POTENT
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
   02/12Z.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
   SWRN OR W-CNTRL IL WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING GENERALLY EWD
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  A COMPLEX PRECIPITATION SHIELD WAS ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AS OF 05Z...WITH A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF
   MODERATE FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NRN MN INTO
   LOWER MI.  WHILE MUCH OF THIS IS SNOW...A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN IS
   BEING REPORTED FROM NEAR OSH EWD TO FNT AND JXN.
   
   VAD AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   AND WAA ABOVE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ARE LARGELY DRIVING THIS BAND OF
   FREEZING PRECIPITATION...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH IS OCCURRING OVER
   SERN WI WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE .05 TO .07 LIQUID
   EQUIVALENT.  HERE...IT APPEARS THAT STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND DEEPER-LAYER LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTIVE CHARACTER OF ECHOES. WITH
   TIME...EXPECT THESE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BURSTS TO SHIFT EWD INTO
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...LOCALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE
   IN PRECIPITATION RATES.  FREEZING RAIN...MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET
   WILL GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS MELTING EFFECTS AND INCREASED
   DYNAMIC FORCING COOL THE THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN.
   
   OVER PORTIONS OF NRN OH INTO WRN PA...INCREASING WAA ALONG NOSE OF
   40-45 KT SWLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AFTER
   02/06Z WITH THE PRIMARY TYPE BEING FREEZING RAIN.  RECENT LIGHTNING
   STRIKES OBSERVED OVER FAR SERN OH INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SOME
   ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  THEREFORE... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
   FOR BURSTS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   43878668 44058581 43228321 42098068 41647977 41017898
   40387892 40177964 40648164 41058291 41708484 42238583
   42758661 43088707 43398708
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#882 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:41 am

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 AM CST THU MAR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NRN MD/DE...NJ
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 021004Z - 021600Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CNTRL PA EARLY
   TODAY AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST TO WRN NJ THROUGH DAYBREAK. POCKETS OF
   MODERATE ICING COULD OCCUR WITH GLAZE AMOUNTS POSSIBLY REACHING 0.25
   INCHES THROUGH 18Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREEZING RAIN COULD
   PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER ICING.
   
   A STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE WAS UNDERCUTTING A MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES EARLY TODAY. AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS
   ASSOCIATED WITH JET EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IMPULSE AND
   ENTRANCE REGION OF DOWNSTREAM JET CORE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND HAVE
   ENHANCED SLOPED ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE
   ALLEGHENYS. DEEP LAYER LIFT ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO NJ AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
   THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE DEVELOPS SEWD AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
   MOVES EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT TO NRN VA.
   
   SREF AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
   WEST-TO-EAST ZONE...FROM CNTRL PA TO NJ...WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
   PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE NEWD ATOP A WELL ENTRENCHED
   SUBFREEZING SURFACE LAYER RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
   LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. POCKETS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...ORIGINATING WITHIN A PLUME OF WARMER AIR ACROSS MIDWEST AND
   PLAINS...COUPLED WITH FORCED ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT...COULD
   ALSO INDUCE ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COULD
   RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER GLAZE AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...BULK OF THE
   FREEZING RAIN SHOULD REMAIN STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH ACCUMULATIONS
   GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH THE MORNING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...
   
   40037841 40257901 40367940 40607998 41158025 41448041
   41878010 41897935 41917868 41877812 41847735 41687628
   41497540 40927431 39907453 39597549 39667689 39797739
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#883 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:42 am

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0174
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 AM CST THU MAR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...SRN/SERN NY...CT...RI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 021406Z - 022000Z
   
   SNOWFALL INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING FROM NERN PA
   ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN CT. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 1
   INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC AREA.
   
   SURFACE LOW....CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR SWRN PA...IS EXPECTED TO
   REDEVELOP EWD TO NJ COAST WHILE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   AS A PAIR OF PHASING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH SWRN
   PERIPHERY OF DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER ERN QUEBEC. MODEST WARM AIR AND
   MOISTURE ADVECTION WERE ALREADY UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM THE
   OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA AND NJ. A LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT HAS
   RESULTED IN PRIMARILY MIXED PRECIPITATION /FREEZING RAIN AND SOME
   ICE PELLETS/ ACROSS PA. HOWEVER...COLD AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
   MASS EXISTS ACROSS SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL BE DRAWN
   INTO THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW LATER THIS MORNING. COUPLED WITH
   INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL
   LIKELY BE OFFSET AND BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD FORM IN THE NRN/NWRN
   QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE.
   
   LATEST SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FORECASTING A STRIP OF AT LEAST 1 INCH
   PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES FROM NY SRN TIER TO CT THROUGH 18Z AND THIS
   APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
   
   41477559 41877654 42177636 42347590 42067424 42027303
   41857229 41727161 41397133 41017211 41047361
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#884 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Mar 02, 2006 4:44 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CST THU MAR 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 022003Z - 030000Z
   
   A PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH UP 1 INCH PER HOUR
   SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
   EVENING ACROSS SRN NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND AND FAR NRN PA. A LARGE AREA
   OF PERIODIC FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   EWD ACROSS ERN PA...NRN NJ...SRN NY AND LONG ISLAND.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DUAL-CENTERED SFC LOW FROM FAR NRN
   VA EXTENDING EWD OFF THE COAST OF DELAWARE. NORTH OF THIS SFC
   LOW...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS NY AND PA WITH
   THE FREEZING LINE LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURG EXTENDING EWD
   INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. AS THE NOSE OF AN IMPRESSIVE 100 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON...INCREASING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND JUST
   NORTH OF THE FREEZING LINE SHOW A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB
   WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB. THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL
   BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY ENHANCING FREEZING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE
   FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW
   EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS COOL AFTER DARK.
   
   NORTH OF THIS ZONE...A BAND OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT
   EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT
   EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUNCHES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
   RESULT...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH. WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PHI...
   
   41597814 41847836 42227836 42637810 42877726 42837501
   42757325 42757176 42647090 42207028 41607010 41267028
   41047083
   
   41557810 41087713 40757556 40637427 40627265 40807137
   40967081
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#885 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Mar 04, 2006 7:12 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CST SAT MAR 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM  AND FAR SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 042003Z - 042230Z
   
   ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z OVER ERN
   NM...SPREADING INTO FAR WRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. A WW MAY BE NECESSARY BY 22Z.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING WITHIN SFC TROUGH NEAR
   CLOVIS SWWD TO THE SACRAMENTO MTNS IN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT.
   DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED ACROSS MUCH OF SERN NM BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
   HOLD NEAR 50. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION REMAINS WHERE IT HAS HEATED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
   PRIMARY EFFECTS OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING
   ALONG WITH MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY.
   
   
   OBSERVED PROFILERS AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOWS FAVORABLE WIND
   PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE. STEEP
   MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FOSTER HAIL GROWTH. TORNADO
   THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL GIVEN 20F+ SURFACE T/TD SPREADS ALONG WITH
   ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 10-15 KTS. HOWEVER...ANY SUPERCELLULAR
   STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD INTERACT WITH STRONGER HELICITY FARTHER
   E WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY CAPPED...BUT MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TO ENHANCE
   ROTATION.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   35330420 35900367 36120328 36130279 36040253 35870232
   34700228 32780235 30740271 30250349 30390396 31050483
   31840490 32700520 34070518 34710469
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#886 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Mar 04, 2006 7:13 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0177
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CST SAT MAR 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NM/WRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37...
   
   VALID 042316Z - 050045Z
   
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT FEW
   HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS LIKELY.  CONTINUE WW.
   
   SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO
   1000 J/KG...ON WESTERN FRINGE OF NARROW MOIST TONGUE ADVECTING OUT
   OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AXIS TO
   THIS POINT HAS GENERALLY BEEN CAPPED BY MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING
   IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES.  HOWEVER...AS
   UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
   STATES... FORCING ON TAIL END OF SYSTEM MAY SUPPRESS INHIBITION
   SUFFICIENTLY FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
   02-03Z TIME FRAME. A VIGOROUS CELL IS ALREADY ONGOING NORTHWEST OF
   AMARILLO...AND ADDITIONAL CELLS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD
   ALONG DRY LINE INTO LEE COUNTY NEW MEXICO.  SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH
   MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
   AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   34480387 35000314 35440268 35830233 35710168 35240178
   34310179 33820183 32990218 32440227 32010262 31590300
   31640363 32020410 32650412 33360340 33880351 34150357
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#887 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Mar 04, 2006 11:10 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0717 PM CST SAT MAR 04 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NM/W TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37...
   
   VALID 050117Z - 050215Z
   
   WW 0037 MAY NOT BE NEEDED MUCH BEYOND THE 02Z TIME FRAME.
   ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO COOL/STABILIZE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  AS LEADING EDGE
   OF MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS...LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE
   FURTHER.  AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL MAY
   STILL DEVELOP WEST NORTHWEST OF MIDLAND INTO AREAS WEST OF LUBBOCK
   THROUGH 02-03Z...BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE THEREAFTER.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   36040173 36060105 35440110 34830154 33750184 32870215
   31930299 32110365 32710371 34530256
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#888 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Mar 05, 2006 11:07 am

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 AM CST SUN MAR 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND FAR SWRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 050632Z - 051230Z
   
   A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS ERN
   IA...NWRN IL AND FAR SWRN WI OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HRLY LIQUID
   ACCUMULATION RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.10 IN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ERN
   IA.
   
   STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA ALONG
   WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE
   PRECIPITATION OVER SRN/CENTRAL IA SWD INTO NRN MO. EWD MOVEMENT OF
   THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
   DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 3 KM/S. 06Z SURFACE WET-BULB
   TEMPERATURES OVER ERN IA AND NWRN IL/SWRN WI WERE IN THE 28-32
   DEGREE RANGE...GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOW DEWPTS IN THE TEENS/MID 20S.
   THUS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION...A CHANGE FROM LIGHT
   RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER ONSET IS EXPECTED.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PTYPE ALGORITHMS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
   INDICATE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE OVER ERN IA...DUE
   TO THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED
   AROUND 850 MB. FURTHER EAST OVER NWRN IL/FAR SWRN WI...A MIX OF
   SLEET AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE WARM LAYER IS LESSER OR
   NON-EXISTENT. DUE TO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT /300 J/KG OF
   MUCAPE ON THE 00Z OMAHA SOUNDING/ MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES IN
   EXCESS OF 0.10 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE OVER ERN IA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
   
   41818964 42678972 43029032 43339113 43239153 43129194
   42599233 42209221 41719206 41119169 40959114 40889080
   40899033 41308971
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#889 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Mar 05, 2006 7:17 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0180
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 PM CST SUN MAR 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN AR / EXTREME SERN OK AND NERN TX /
   FAR NW MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 052238Z - 060115Z
   
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
   STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE
   CRITERIA. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH...AND WEST
   OF RELATIVE COLD BUBBLE ACROSS MO AND AR. SFC-850 MB WIND FIELDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS UPPER WAVE MOVES SEWD ACROSS AR. THE VEERED
   FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO POINTS E OF
   SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...MAINLY ACROSS SRN AR...WHILE COOLING ALOFT
   HELPS TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES IN CLOUD LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE ABOUT 500-750 J/KG MUCAPE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN
   CLOUD BEARING LAYER TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS. THUS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
   A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/05/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
   
   34889015 33259064 33199397 33129579 33569617 34329470
   34879389 34889345
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#890 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Mar 07, 2006 2:26 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1023 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO...WRN IA...EXTREME NERN
   KS...SERN SD...SWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071623Z - 071830Z
   
   TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z IN NNW-SSE
   ORIENTED BAND FROM SERN SD AND SWRN MN SEWD TO W-CENTRAL MO...MOVING
    NEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN IA...NWRN-W-CENTRAL MO AND SWRN
   MN.  ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER NEITHER
   ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT NOR WW ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO WARM FRONTAL
   ZONE NEAR 700 MB.  ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED AROUND 700 MB BASED
   ON EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.
    PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY RAISED LIFTED TO LFC AND
   SATURATION...BENEATH 7.5 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORT
   ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEARS 30-40 KT ARE
   EVIDENT WHEN USING ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS CORRESPONDING TO LAYERS
   THAT INCLUDE 700 MB LEVEL.  ALTHOUGH VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS NOT
   LIKELY GIVEN LIMITED BUOYANCY AND MRGL EFFECTIVE SHEAR...RELATIVELY
   DRY SUBCONVECTIVE LAYER ATOP COOL/STABLE SFC AIR MASS MAY INHIBIT
   SUBCLOUD MELTING AND THUS AID HAIL SURVIVAL TO SFC.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
   
   37879455 38569477 39999542 42209633 43659719 44029719
   44399686 44429623 44379573 44199525 43669464 43139399
   41989358 40529309 39129307 38279330 37959423
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#891 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:44 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THRU W CNTRL MO/NE KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 072316Z - 080115Z
   
   NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING.
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR BROADER SCALE SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FOCUSED IN ZONE OF
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NOW SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI TOWARD WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
   THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
   CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING.
   
   WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PRIMARY NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...TO THE WEST
   SOUTHWEST OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...ACROSS AREA NEAR/SOUTH THROUGH
   SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE.  BASE OF ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CLOSER TO 850
   MB THAN 700 MB...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.
   HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY GREATER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 1000
   J/KG...WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
   
   MID-LEVEL COOLING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IMPULSE...AND
   ONSET OF INCREASING LOWER MID/TROPOSPHERIC IN CREST OF SHORT WAVE
   RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... ARE EVENTUALLY
   EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE
   KANSAS CITY MO/TOPEKA KS AREA. THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
   03Z...MORE LIKELY THEREAFTER.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...
   
   40679336 41109198 40799072 39509062 38929096 38809276
   38569432 38629550 38969562 39409570 39699482 40219432
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#892 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:45 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL OK INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 072349Z - 080115Z
   
   TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
   THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A WW.
   
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...WITH BROAD MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH
   THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
   EXISTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE IN
   WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
   HOWEVER...NARROW AXIS OF MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
   1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXISTS...AND WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
   IS ONGOING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
   THIS COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   BY 02-03Z.
   
   HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE SEEMS TO BE NEAR OR TO THE
   SOUTH/EAST OF WICHITA...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH
   MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARY RISK SEEMS
   TO BE LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   37559754 38339677 38749598 38289507 37029522 36489562
   36369665 36579757
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#893 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:45 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0610 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 080010Z - 080115Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT NEED FOR A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
   LIKELY AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG DRY LINE NEAR THE
   FORT STOCKTON AREA.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS GENERALLY WEAK...
   BUT FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY AND WEAKENED INHIBITION IN PEAK HEATING HAVE
   APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY.  WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR
   SO...INHIBITION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH ONSET OF SURFACE
   COOLING.  DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
   COULD OFFSET THIS MITIGATING FACTOR...MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT INTO THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY
   SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   31140263 31490195 30820130 30350158 30140205 30100251
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#894 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:45 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0923 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS INTO NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38...
   
   VALID 080323Z - 080530Z
   
   CONTINUE WW 38.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW TO THE EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO
   AREA.
   
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW ONGOING NEAR THE TOPEKA/
   ST. JOSEPH/KANSAS CITY AREAS...WHERE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED ON NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF UPPER
   RIDGE...IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY MOIST INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING
   LOW-LEVEL JET. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION
   ...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS
   WHICH WILL BE BASED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL INVERSION
   
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z AND
   BEYOND...IN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME DOWNSTREAM...BECOMING QUASI
   STATIONARY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR ACROSS MISSOURI.
   DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
   THREAT.  OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TRAINING CONVECTION
   COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A PROBLEM.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   38979661 39479597 39779480 40039302 39839170 39219103
   38829105 38599157 38469321 38019530 38259647
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#895 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:40 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0948 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN KS/SW MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38...
   
   VALID 080348Z - 080515Z
   
   SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
   MID-LEVEL COOLING IN WAKE OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  INFLUENCE
   OF UPPER JET STREAK TOPPING CREST OF SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS
   UNCERTAIN...BUT STRONGER FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SHIFTING
   EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WW 38...EAST OF THE
   PONCA CITY AREA BY 06Z...AND EAST OF BARTLESVILLE INTO THE JOPLIN
   AREA BY 09Z.  VEERING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN INFLOW
   OF MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY BE BASED NEAR THE
   SURFACE...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY
   THREAT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   36579813 37179745 37559636 37799510 37249452 36769483
   36549553 36229616 36079699 36069808
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#896 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:41 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0932 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...N-CENTRAL/NERN
   TX...W-CENTRAL/SWRN AR...EXTREME NWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
   
   VALID 081532Z - 081630Z
   
   1630Z DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL MDT
   RISK FOR SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION -- MAINLY
   AFTER 09/06Z.  POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR DAMAGING WIND AND
   SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC
   FRONT ACROSS OUTLINED REGION.  THIS WILL CARRY OVER AND EXPAND
   GEOGRAPHICALLY INTO 1730Z DAY-2 OUTLOOK...WHICH ALSO WILL BE
   UPGRADED TO MDT RISK FROM THIS AREA NEWD THRU SEWD ACROSS LOWER MS
   VALLEY REGION. MORE DETAILS ARE FORTHCOMING IN SPC DAY-1 AND DAY-2
   OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   33259346 32839373 32279436 31889515 31869564 32039613
   32329652 32649659 33269652 34509582 35349479 35459397
   35259340 34889316 34299309
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#897 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:42 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN KS...NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081741Z - 082015Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE DURING
   NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WW.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSES OVER PAST FEW HOURS SHOW WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD
   ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO...E THRU ESE SFC LOW. AT 17Z...SHARPLY
   DEFINED WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SFC LOW NEAR MHK...ESEWD ACROSS
   WRN/SRN PORTIONS KC METRO AREA...THEN CURVING SWD OVER WRN OZARKS
   REGION.  EXPECT SFC CYCLONE TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT MORE AND MOVE NEWD
   TOWARD STJ REGION THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE WARM FRONT
   LIFTS NWD OVER MO VALLEY BETWEEN FNB-MCI.  DRYLINE -- ANALYZED AT
   17Z FROM POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY KS SWWD TO BETWEEN END-PNC -- SHOULD
   MOVE EWD IN STEP WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC LOW...AND WILL FORM WRN
   BOUND FOR SEVERE THREAT.
   
   AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT...AND E OF DRYLINE...IS BECOMING
   FAVORABLY UNSTABLE...WITH VIS IMAGERY AND OBS SHOWING CLEARING S OF
   WARM FRONT.  CINH WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS SFC TEMPS HEAT INTO MID 70S
   WITH 55-60 DEG F DEW POINTS...PER MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC/ETA
   SOUNDINGS.  THIS MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT 2-3
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ENHANCEMENT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
   DRYLINE/WARM FRONT NEAR DEEPENING LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
   REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF THIS FRONT AS WELL...PER LATEST VWP/PROFILER
   TRENDS.  ALONG WARM FRONT AND E OF SFC LOW...MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG
   ARE POSSIBLE WITH 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS
   NEAR 60 KT...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN ANY TSTMS THAT
   DEVELOP.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   38499508 38539633 39749563 40329507 40609452 40229339
   39439280 38769303
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#898 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:42 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...WRN/NRN AR...EXTREME SERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081825Z - 082030Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS
   PORTIONS NRN/WRN AR...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MOVING NEWD FROM
   SERN OK.  MAIN THREAT THROUGH 21Z SHOULD BE HAIL.  EXISTING ACTIVITY
   OVER NERN AR SHOULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MO AND MAY PRODUCE
   HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS BEFORE WEAKENING.
   
   MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500
   J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTED BY STRONG WAA IN 800-850 MB
   LAYER WHERE ACTIVITY IS ROOTED ATTM.  50-70 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL
   ENHANCE SHEAR THROUGH CAPE BEARING LAYER...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
   FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND HAIL PRODUCTION.  ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING WILL
   BE SLOW OVER THIS REGION BECAUSE OF THICK CLOUD COVER...COMBINATION
   OF GRADUAL DIABATIC WARMING AND SFC WAA MAY RESULT IN EFFECTIVE
   LIFTED LAYER EXTENDING DOWN TO SFC ONCE TEMPS REACH MID 70S F...MOST
   PROBABLE FROM ABOUT 21Z ONWARD.  WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MAY
   DEVELOP FROM SERN OK ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR IN RESPONSE TO
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING S OF MAIN PRECIP AREA.  ALTHOUGH MODELS
   INDICATE CAPPING WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SFC PARCELS...SUCH HEATING
   AND POTENTIAL LIFT COULD INTRODUCE SOME SFC-BASED SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...A SITUATION THAT WILL WARRANT
   ADDITIONAL MONITORING.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
   
   34859238 34209526 35909425 36449144 37308958 36428952
   35299081 34999182
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#899 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:43 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 081834Z - 082230Z
   
   SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 21Z WITH UP TO 2 IN/HR RATES
   IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG FRONT RANGE.
   
   WEAK SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS AS WINDS BACK AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT IN RESPONSE TO
   DEEPENING PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WARM
   ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WHICH WILL KEEP PROFILES SATURATED WITH
   MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL MANAGE
   TO COOL DESPITE THIS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS.
   GIVEN SEVERAL HOURS OF SATURATED AND COOLING PROFILES ALONG WITH
   UPSLOPE FLOW...2-4 HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE LIKELY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   
   40940582 41130561 41080521 41020490 40880473 40660466
   40500468 40150465 39920456 39680446 39480436 38880481
   38820507 38970537 39860584 40530583
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#900 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:44 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL TX INTO SWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081953Z - 082200Z
   
   WE ARE MONITORING THE DRYLINE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   THIS AFTERNOON. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED.
   
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 50S E OF THE
   DRYLINE. 18Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A RELATIVELY DEEP AND MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS NEAR 10.5 G/KG AND 850 DEWPOINT OF
   11.9 C...HOWEVER CAPPED. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXIST FARTHER WEST WITH
   LITTLE SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER CIN REMAINING.
   
   AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS FORMED IN ADVANCE OF UPPER
   TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL WITH A STRONG
   TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE MCD AREA NWWD. IN ADDITION...AREA WIND
   PROFILERS INDICATE LOW LEVEL WINDS / 850 MB / BEGINNING TO BACK
   WHICH WILL HELP TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE NWWD BENEATH INCREASINGLY
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST 18Z NAM AS WELL AS 18Z RUC
   MODELS BOTH PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX BETWEEN
   21-00Z. GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AS WELL AS INCREASING
   HELICITY LATE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
   TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH INCREASING
   LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH
   ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY/ACCELERATION.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   35109698 34489721 32209849 31839903 31229984 31100023
   31630057 32619999 33629904 34759841 35039824 35519749
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