NWS MIA Confirms a Strong Bermuda High, a Precursor?

[gatorcane]

Weather Bug Shows Temps in the 90s inland

Tuesday:
Partly sunny. Highs around 90 inland to the mid 80s near the coast.

[terstorm1012]

I'm jealous.

it's frickin freezing up here.

[MiamiensisWx]

Can anyone post discussions from 2004 from the Miami NWS that were posted around this time of year? I want to compare it to recent discussions. By the way, I think they said the exact same things in 2004 around this time of year. Do you agree, boca_chris?

[gatorcane]

Can anyone post discussions from 2004 from the Miami NWS that were posted around this time of year? I want to compare it to recent discussions.

That's a great idea but so far we are looking like 2004. I remember in 2004 around the mid May time frame we were seeing East and West coast seabreeze convergence with storms moving East to West across the state (much like we do in August or September). I was surprised by how early the West coast afternoon and evening storm regime kicked in. Little did I know that it was foreshadowing a massive western Atlantic ridge that steered Frances and Jeanne into the east coast.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree, boca_chris... in fact, have you noticed how the latest Miami NWS discussions sound just like the ones they released in 2004 around this time of year? I think in 2004 that the ridge was over the southeastern U.S. around this time of year.

[gatorcane]

do you have an old discussion?

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't, but I remember how that, in 2004, the discussions released around this time of year said the exact same thing how ridging over the southeastern U.S. would build into the western Atlantic and how easterly breezes and coastal showers would be dominant. Do you agree?

[gatorcane]

yep

[MiamiensisWx]

boca_chris, this is from last year. Do you notice how similar it sounds to now?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=517814&highlight=#517814

[gatorcane]

I was just reading it. So far it does, we'll have to see how the next several weeks pan out into May. That will reveal the true similarity.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree! It is very dry and clear outside right now and rather similar to 2004.

[T'Bonz]

Wonderful. Just what we need. Early heat. Like we don't get enough of it during the year.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is an update to the latest Miami NWS discussion. They are calling for lower easterly winds than previously.

.UPDATE...

FOR THE MOST PART NO REAL CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR BOTH WEATHER AND MARINE CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST IS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST IS FOR 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND THEY MAY NOT BE
OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO BRING THE MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND AREAS.
THAT IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY COULD RESULT IN HUMIDITIES NEAR 35
PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LESS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO A RED FLAG WATCH
OR WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED EARLY WEDNESDAY AS NEW GUIDANCE AND
DATA DICTATES.

[boca]

I wish we could get achieved discussions from 2004. Guess what I believe it would be duplicated.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree, boca! Even with the new forecast calling for lower easterly winds, I still feel it is early. The ridge usually gets established later on.

[gatorcane]

Here is an update to the latest Miami NWS discussion. They are calling for lower easterly winds than previously.

.UPDATE...

FOR THE MOST PART NO REAL CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR BOTH WEATHER AND MARINE CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST IS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST IS FOR 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND THEY MAY NOT BE
OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO BRING THE MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND AREAS.
THAT IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY COULD RESULT IN HUMIDITIES NEAR 35
PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LESS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO A RED FLAG WATCH
OR WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED EARLY WEDNESDAY AS NEW GUIDANCE AND
DATA DICTATES.

That discussion is only for the next day or so. NWS Miami is still predicting a good easterly flow to start kicking in by Thurs and through the weekend into next week. The forecast is nearly identical to 2004 this time of year. In fact I don't remember last year at this time where there were so many consecutive days with E winds.

AMZ651-671-080930-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-060308T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
1026 PM EST TUE MAR 7 2006

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY


TONIGHT
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NEAR SHORE...SEAS 3 TO
5 FEET SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE GULF
STREAM...SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.

WEDNESDAY
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. NORTH SWELL 3 TO 4 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
NORTH SWELL 3 FEET IN THE EVENING. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE
CHOP.

THURSDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NEAR SHORE...SEAS 2 TO
3 FEET BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL OFFSHORE...
SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS.

FRIDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET
SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTRACOASTAL
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.

SATURDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.

SUNDAY
EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. INTRACOASTAL
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS.

[MiamiensisWx]

Oh... thanks for the information, boca_chris!

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, boca_chris, you have a new PM from me!

[gatorcane]

of course we need to see what happens over the next couple of weeks and months...but it's starting like 2004 did - dry, warm, with an easterly flow.

[boca]

By next Tuesday the high will be 88°F here in S FL.