Tropical Depression Basyang at WPAC

[Coredesat]

06/2033 UTC 4.3N 134.3E T2.5/2.5 01W



Convection's starting to refire, but it's still highly disorganized and not really worth the 2.5, IMO. It still looks more like a tropical wave than anything, and the LLC's pretty hard to find.

[HURAKAN]

NRL says 20 knots. The end is near!

[HURAKAN]

NRL says 20 knots. The end is near!

WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 4.1N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 4.1N 134.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 4.2N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 4.1N 134.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
A 062104Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF ELONGATED TROUGHING
AND A DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WAS UNABLE
TO BE LOCATED USING ANIMATED MULTIPLE SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z
IS 6 FEET.




LAST WARNING!!!

[JonathanBelles]

i guesss its a godsend for the philippenes

[senorpepr]

:cry: i guesss its a godsend for the philippenes

No kidding... at first I was concerned with a possible typhoon striking the three largest cities in the Philippines plus a province that recently had a mudslide. Of course, my concern was heightened because I have special interests in the Visayas.

[Coredesat]

07/0233 UTC 4.3N 133.6E T1.5/2.5 01W

[Coredesat]

08/0233 UTC 4.6N 128.0E T1.5/2.0 01W



Previous numbers were T1.5/1.5. It looks better now than it ever did previously. It seems to be making a comeback.

[Coredesat]

Yep, it seems to be coming back! 01W's definitely a fighter!

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 128.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. A 070153Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS A PRE-
EXISTING LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
OF TD 01W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT RETAINS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[senorpepr]

Interesting...

I noticed the flare up earlier, but PAGASA is keeping the it as a low pressure area. I'll continue to monitor information out of the Philippines as 01W approaches...

[P.K.]

0600 GMT:

SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 05N 127E NW 10 KT.

[Coredesat]

08/1333 UTC 6.5N 126.1E OVERLAND 01W

[senorpepr]

Weather
Issued At: 5:00 p.m., 08 March 2006
Synopsis : At 2:00 p.m. today, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based from satellite and surface data at 210 kms southeast of Southern Mindanao (4.7 ºN / 127.0 ºE).

[Coredesat]

TD 01W has survived its trek across the Philippines:

09/2033 UTC 7.6N 120.5E T1.5/1.5 01W

[Coredesat]

WARNING AND SUMMARY 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 994 HPA
AT 54N 175E BERING SEA MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 54N 175E TO 56N 179W 56N 171W 54N 164W.
COLD FRONT FROM 54N 175E TO 48N 175E 42N 174E 38N 171E 34N 168E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 1004 HPA AT 55N 164E
MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 29N 136E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 29N 136E TO 28N 143E 27N 147E.
COLD FRONT FROM 29N 136E TO 26N 133E 24N 129E 23N 124E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 120E 33N 125E
23N 121E 16N 108E 20N 106E 24N 118E 30N 122E 35N 120E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 07N 122E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 40N 149E EAST 20 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 28N 170E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[JonathanBelles]

is it officially a TD?

[Coredesat]

Right now, only JMA is considering it a TD. PAGASA is referring to it as a low pressure area, and JTWC is still monitoring it for signs of regeneration.

[JonathanBelles]

ok thanx

[P.K.]

The JMA are monitoring this area but not releasing any advisories as it isn't strong enough. Pressure is down 2hPa though.

WWJP25 RJTD 100600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 31N 141E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 31N 141E TO 31N 142E 31N 144E.
WARM FRONT FROM 31N 144E TO 30N 147E 28N 151E.
COLD FRONT FROM 31N 144E TO 28N 142E 24N 138E 21N 133E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 35N 150E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 990 HPA
AT 56N 173E BERING SEA MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 56N 173E TO 58N 175E 59N 177E.
WARM FRONT FROM 59N 177E TO 60N 177W 59N 170W.
COLD FRONT FROM 59N 177E TO 55N 179E 48N 180E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 48N 180E TO 38N 179E 31N 174E 28N 166E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1500 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA
EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 46N 127E EAST 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 120E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 40N 156E EAST 20 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 30N 125E EAST 10 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 127E TO 46N 132E 45N 136E.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 127E TO 43N 128E 39N 126E 38N 125E 36N 123E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Coredesat]

Convection is diminishing.

[Coredesat]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 123.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 119.3E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTHWEST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS TWO
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) WITH AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SULU SEA. AT THIS TIME IT IS
NOT CLEAR IF ONE LLCC WILL BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE OTHER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE COMBINED AREA OF CONVECTION IS UNDER MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND THE LACK OF A CLEAR CUT LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.