MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN KS...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39...
   
   VALID 082111Z - 082245Z
   
   SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ALONG AND
   JUST N OF SFC WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS STJ
   AREA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS EXTREME NERN KS AND NWRN MO.
   FOR GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL...ACTIVITY MUST REMAIN IN WARM
   FRONTAL ZONE LONG ENOUGH TO MATURE WITH SFC-BASED INFLOW...WITHOUT
   MOVING TOO FAR OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS NEAR
   IA/MO LINE.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD
   ACROSS AREA BETWEEN MHK-TOP-FNB.  DRYLINE INTERSECTS WARM FRONT JUST
   E OF SFC LOW BETWEEN TOP-STJ AS OF 21Z...AND MAY MOVE EWD AS FAR AS
   MO RIVER IN NEXT 1- 2HOURS.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
   SHOW WEAK CINH -- 25 J/KG OR LESS -- FOR 100 MB DEEP MEAN-MIXED
   LAYER ASCENT...MAINLY NEAR AND N OF I-70.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
   ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ON BOTH SIDES OF WARM FRONT...BUT WITH
   MORE STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NEAR AND JUST N OF FRONT WHERE FLOW
   IS BACKED AT SFC.
   
   SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE OVER WRN PORTION
   OF WW...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES MAY BE DIMINISHING WITH COVERAGE OF
   DEVELOPMENT LIMITED S OF WARM FRONT.  STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS IN
   THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT HELPING TO
   MAINTAIN BACKED FLOW AND FAVORABLE SHEAR THERE BUT KEEPING FLOW
   SOMEWHAT VEERED AND REDUCING DRYLINE CONVERGENCE FARTHER S.  IN
   ADDITION...THICKENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM
   SW IS SLOWING DIABATIC HEATING AND MAY ALSO BE RESTRICTING
   SOLENOIDAL ASCENT INVOF DRYLINE.  W EDGE OF HIGH CLOUD DECK SHOULD
   NOT MOVE E OF WW UNTIL AFTER DARK...THEREFORE SFC TEMPS IN MOIST
   SECTOR MAY BE PEAKING.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   36999433 36979628 38109559 39189509 39669524 40029525
   40189417 40099301 39299318

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0410 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NE OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 082210Z - 082245Z
   
   WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NE OK.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK FROM OKLAHOMA
   COUNTY TO PAYNE COUNTY.  THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY
   LINE THAT HAS BEEN RETREATING TOWARD THE NNW AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   RETURNS ACROSS OK...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG.  DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...
   
   35249750 35999719 36929657 36959453 35319479 35029647

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0520 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TX TO SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 082320Z - 082345Z
   
   WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR SRN OK INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TX.
   ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER TO THE SW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
   INTO SW TX THIS EVENING.
   
   DESPITE EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD ACROSS
   MUCH OF SW/WRN TX TO OK AND ERN KS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACKING WITH
   THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN DRY LINE
   RETREATING TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
   MID-UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
   AROUND 60 HAS RESULTED IN MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG.  THUNDERSTORMS
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SLOWLY ALONG THE DRY LINE...WITH GREATER TSTM
   COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER 00-03Z AS STRONGER ASCENT WITH THE UPSTREAM
   TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   31370093 32300005 32919962 34049896 35129824 35089619
   34029625 32079786 30969904 30409996 30380056 30920119

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / PARTS OF WRN INTO NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39...
   
   VALID 090104Z - 090200Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 39 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 09/02Z.
   
   00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN MO TO THE ENE OF
   STJ.  A DRY LINE EXTENDED SSWWD INTO SERN KS TO CENTRAL OK...WHILE A
   COLD FRONT TRAILED SWWD TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE INTO SOUTH
   CENTRAL KS TO THE OK PANHANDLE.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STORMS OVER NERN PART OF WW 39 /NORTH
   CENTRAL MO/ WEAKENING...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG DRY
   LINE OVER SERN KS SINCE 23Z HAVE NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSE...
   WITH ONLY PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED THUS FAR.  PRIND SUGGEST ERN KS/MO
   MAY BE LOCATED BENEATH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BETWEEN SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS MID MO VALLEY AND UPSTREAM TROUGH
   APPROACHING SRN PLAINS.  IN ADDITION TO MID LEVEL RIDGING...
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN KS AND MO
   BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH A WEAK CAP EVIDENT ON 00Z SOUNDING AT
   SGF.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS...STRONGEST...THOUGH ISOLATED...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
   FOCUSED ALONG THE DRY LINE AND/OR APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE
   SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SERN IA.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   37019667 38769453 40119403 40029186 36869323

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NRN IL AND FAR SERN WI.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41...
   
   VALID 090146Z - 090315Z
   
   STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE IN
   THE NERN PORTION OF WW 41 AND TO THE E. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME.
   
   SEVERAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN
   CNTRL/ERN IA INTO FAR NW IL. THE STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AN AXIS OF
   MAXIMUM 850 MB WARM THETA-E ADVECTION. RUC AND 18Z NAM WRF GUIDANCE
   INDICATE THIS AXIS WILL MOVE NWD INTO SRN WI/LK MI THIS EVENING AS A
   LOW-LEVEL DRY PUNCH MOVES NEWD FROM NW MO AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z TOP
   SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
   ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...MUCAPES ARE LOW FROM AROUND 250-500 J/KG
   ACROSS NWRN IL FROM 00Z DVN SOUNDING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT
   FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX...
   
   41659366 42089238 42429052 42888782 41538824 41019012
   40619232

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0822 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OK/NRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 40...42...
   
   VALID 090222Z - 090315Z
   
   WW 40 WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WATCH EXTENDING WWD TO INCLUDE
   MORE OF NORTH CENTRAL OK.  WW 42 REMAINS VALID THROUGH 06Z.
   
   ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN/SERN OK INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX
   SHOULD POSE A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
   THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED.  02Z SURFACE
   ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN KS SWWD INTO NWRN
   OK...WHILE THE DRY LINE EXTENDED SWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO PARTS OF
   NWRN-WEST CENTRAL TX.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT /MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN TX INTO WRN
   OK SUGGESTING NEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z ACROSS
   MUCH OF CENTRAL OK INTO PARTS OF NRN TX.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   32179964 35409897 36989864 36929432 35289527 32949689
   31959816

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0198
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0956 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 090356Z - 090500Z
   
   HAIL THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
   ISOLATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS /UNTIL 06-07Z/.  GREATEST
   THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ACROSS SERN KS AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING INTO
   SWRN MO.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE 0245Z OVER
   SERN KS FROM COWLEY TO ALLEN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
   NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THUS IS MOST LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE
   SURFACE.  AIR MASS S AND E OF THE FRONT HAS REMAINED MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG.  50 KT SSWLY LLJ
   EXTENDING INTO SERN KS IS PROVIDING MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW INTO THIS
   ELEVATED ACTIVITY...WITH ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   38099598 38749410 38549348 37199367 36959473 36959677
   37109749 37699720

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0199
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1051 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN OK/NRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 42...
   
   VALID 090451Z - 090515Z
   
   NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 06Z TO REPLACE WW 42.
   
   04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SWD
   THROUGH NWRN-NRN OK WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER
   NORTH CENTRAL OK.  THE DRY LINE EXTENDED SSWWD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW
   TO THE SWRN OK/TX BORDER REGION BETWEEN 30 NW SPS AND SPS...AND THEN
   INTO NWRN TX.  MEANWHILE...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED SWWD ACROSS
   WRN OK JUST WEST OF THE DRY LINE INTO WEST CENTRAL TX TO NEAR MAF.
   
   THE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN TX DURING THE LAST HOUR IS
   EVIDENT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM
   TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. 03Z RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATED A CAPPED AIR MASS CURRENTLY OVER SRN OK/NRN TX
   WILL WEAKEN BETWEEN 07-09Z AS INCREASING UVVS SPREAD EWD WITH THE
   UPPER TROUGH.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE
   DRY LINE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. 
   LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AN AXIS OF PRESSURE FALLS
   EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL TX INTO SERN OK MAINTAINING SELY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK.  IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
   THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO MAINTAIN BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCING
   SRH VALUES FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SURFACE BASED AND/OR NEAR
   SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   32109995 33159975 34959851 34869703 34569451 33199471
   31969560 31899829

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1102 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 090502Z - 090630Z
   
   ...A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THE TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL
   TX...
   
   STRONG/SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF 80-90 KT JET MAX
   WHICH IS APPROACHING FROM THE BIG BEND. VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS APPEAR TO
   BE FORMING ON A CONFLUENCE AXIS...POSSIBLY NEAR 700MB JUDGING FROM
   VWP/SATELLITE DATA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WELL OVER 50 KT...AND
   AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TEND TO
   BE MORE FROM LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL
   FOR TORNADOES...GIVEN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND THE VERY
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
   
   28629738 28179909 29109998 31339850 31599708 31129625
   30299628

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0201
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 43...
   
   VALID 090544Z - 090715Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WW 43.
   
   LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE
   SLOWLY SWD THROUGH NRN AND WRN OK...WITH THE 05Z POSITION OF THIS
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM JUST N OF BVO TO 35 SE END...AND THEN
   WWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  THE DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM LOGAN COUNTY
   IN CENTRAL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX /JUST W OF ABI/.  AIR MASS EAST OF
   THE DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT IS CAPPED...BUT REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY
   UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
   
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONGOING ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SRN OK WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD TO THE NE INTO THE SRN AND ERN PARTS OF
   WW 43.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   34939862 36969805 36999542 35399508 34549553 34819673
   34729784

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK AND NRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 45...46...47...
   
   VALID 090757Z - 090900Z
   
   ...FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINES WILL GENERATE WIND DAMAGE...
   
   TWO WELL DEVELOPED...AND INCREASINGLY MATURE...SQUALL LINES HAVE
   EVOLVED ACROSS OK INTO THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH TX.  LEAD
   SQUALL LINE IS EXITING NERN MOST QUADRANT OF WW45...MOVING INTO
   WW46-47...WHILE UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING INTO
   NCNTRL TX ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION.
   
   BOTH OF THESE ORGANIZING COMPLEXES ARE RACING ENEWD IN EXCESS OF 50
   KT AND SHOULD EASILY GENERATE DAMAGING WINDS...AS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
   ON SEVERAL MESONET LOCATIONS.  OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT INTO THE
   METROPLEX AS STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADS WARM SECTOR.  ALTHOUGH
   ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE
   GREATEST SEVERE THREATS WITH THESE SQUALL LINES.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   34759713 35819560 35469372 33439448 33179677 33279829

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 44...
   
   VALID 091114Z - 091245Z
   
   ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TX AND MUCH OF
   LA...
   
   VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...90-100 KT...IS NOW APPROACHING
   CNTRL TX WHERE SHARPENING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING SHOWERS/TSTMS
   ARE OBSERVED.  MOISTURE HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN TX TO NEAR THE SABINE RIVER.  IN
   ADDITION...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION
   SUPPORTING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL EJECT ACROSS
   EAST TX LATER THIS MORNING.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE
   TO STRENGTHEN CREATING HIGH END HODOGRAPHS STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   TORNADIC STORMS AND DAMAGING BOW ECHOES.  AS THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT RESPONDS TO THIS TROUGH...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   EMERGE THIS MORNING AND RACE NEWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER. BROAD
   TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   30779575 32719461 32869151 30709123 29759211 29859517

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0610 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46...
   
   VALID 091210Z - 091345Z
   
   ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN
   AR...
   
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS STABILIZED MUCH
   OF THE TORNADO WATCH REGION.  OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
   IDENTIFIABLE IN AN E-W ORIENTATION ROUGHLY ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   WATCH FROM NERN AR TO NEAR FSM.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
   STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WILL BE SOUTH
   OF THIS REGION WHERE AIRMASS IS MORE BUOYANT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   SQUALL LINE.  SERN MOST COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR A
   REPLACEMENT WATCH BY 14Z.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   36139528 37119347 37169029 35638956 34789338 34869538

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...WRN
   KY...EXTREME SRN IL...EXTREME SERN MO.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 49...
   
   VALID 091630Z - 091830Z
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY FROM
   NEAR DYR SWWD TOWARD NRN PORTIONS LIT AREA...WHERE IT INTERSECTS
   NEWD MOVING BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION.  CONVERGENCE...
   VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALL WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THAT
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT RETREATS NWD 10-15 KT...TOWARD AN ISALLOBARIC
   FALL AXIS AND AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND.  VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES ALONG AND S OF THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE --
   WITH 0-1 KM SRH 500-800 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS 65-80 KT...BASED ON
   RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP DATA.  GIVEN THESE EXTREME SHEAR
   PROFILES...TORNADO THREAT REMAINS WITH EMBEDDED BLOW/LEWP
   CIRCULATIONS AND/OR SUPERCELLS...DESPITE OVERALL LINEAR
   ORGANIZATION.
   
   WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM MS RIVER ALONG WRN TN BORDER...SSEWD
   ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR MEI.  AIRMASS FOR SFC-BASED PARCELS BECOMES
   PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE WITH NEWD EXTENT FROM THAT FRONT...SUCH
   THAT BUOYANCY IS ENTIRELY ELEVATED -- EVEN FOR BASE LEVEL OF
   EFFECTIVE PARCELS -- FROM NWRN TN ACROSS WRN KY.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND
   RUC SOUNDINGS OVER THIS REGION SHOW ELEVATED MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER
   500 J/KG.  WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP LIMITING HEATING...AND ONLY
   WEAK WAA ANTICIPATED NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIND AIR MASS WILL NOT
   DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FARTHER NE ACROSS REMAINDER WRN KY/SRN
   INDIANA TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WW IN NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   37178964 37348813 37198762 36718744 35598824 34189003
   33489164 33299241 34449267

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OK/WRN AR AND SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091634Z - 091830Z
   
   SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BEGINNING BY 18Z OVER
   PORTIONS OF FAR ERN OK...WRN AR AND SWRN MO. ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL
   CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A SVR WW.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
   IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/ERN AR AND SERN
   MO...AND AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OK. A
   NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS THUS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS CLEARING.
   THIS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THE AXIS IS EXPECTED SLOWLY
   EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH PRESENCE OF
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO
   -25 DEG C AT 500 MB/ FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF
   MUCAPE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
   TO BEGIN TO FORM ON EITHER THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT OVER FAR
   NERN OK/SWRN MO...OR ONE OR MORE SURFACE TROUGHS OVER FAR ERN OK/WRN
   AR BY 18Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 63-65 DEG F RANGE. GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...COLD LOW-MID
   LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST SHEAR...AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
   
   33889432 35979315 37149277 37589414 36649501 35739505
   34079521

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/CENTRAL/SRN LA...SERN AR...WRN/NRN
   MS...EXTREME NWRN AL.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 48...
   
   VALID 091705Z - 091830Z
   
   ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT TORNADO WW IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE SCHEDULED
   19Z EXPIRATION OF THIS ONE.  PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE IS EVIDENT
   BETWEEN PBF-MLU THEN SWWD TOWARD CHAMBERS COUNTY TX.  ADDITIONAL
   BANDS OF ASCENT EVIDENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY INDICATE ONE OR MORE
   NEW LINES OF TSTMS WILL EVOLVE GRADUALLY AHEAD OF EXISTING ACTIVITY.
    AS SUCCESSIVE LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOP...ERN-MOST BAND WILL IN
   TURN BECOME PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE.  FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
   STRENGTHEN FROM W-E ACROSS REGION...AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
   AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TX/OK.  THIS WILL
   ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WHICH ALREADY IS FAVORABLE GIVEN 200-400
   J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND 60-70 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS IN VWP/PROFILER DATA.
   ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT AS EXTREME AS FARTHER N
   OVER WW 49...BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
   OVER THIS REGION FAVOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...A FEW OF
   WHICH MAY BECOME TORNADIC.
   
   MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR INSTABILITY IS LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE...HOWEVER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL BE AT LEAST MRGLLY
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW
   POINTS LOW-MID 60S AMIDST GRADUAL DIABATIC HEATING...RESULTING IN
   MLCAPES GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...BASED ON
   MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   29989428 31099309 32389216 33219170 33509144 34119074
   34729014 35018803 33848804 32848852 30619033 29749154
   29579309

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MS...PORTIONS WRN/NRN AL...S-CENTRAL/SERN
LA...PORTIONS MID TN.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50...

VALID 091952Z - 092115Z



WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE AIR MASS
BECOMES TOO STABILIZED AND NONCONVERGENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL SEVERE CONVECTION. REPLACEMENT OR ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WHICH WOULD COVER AREAS FARTHER E
ACROSS NRN/WRN AL AND PERHAPS SERN MS.

MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING NEWD APPROXIMATELY 50 KT ACROSS NRN
MS WITH SOLID DEFINITION IN REFLECTIVITY...AND ENEWD 30-35 KT OVER
LA WHERE ITS STRUCTURE IS MORE FRACTURED. PRIND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND REPLACE
ORIGINAL LINE OVER ITS SRN EXTENT IN SRN MS AND SERN LA. POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL TORNADOES CONTINUES...BOTH FROM
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW/LEWP CIRCULATIONS...GIVEN FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN INFLOW SECTOR. VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS ARE
EVIDENT IN OKO -- NERN MS PROFILER -- WITH 0-1 KM SRH ROUGHLY 500
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS ABOUT 70 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR DIMINISHES
SLIGHTLY WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS MS DELTA REGION EWD TO AL...BUT WILL
ALSO INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH TIME...AS ENHANCED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ALOFT SHIFT NEWD ACROSS AREA. BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MRGL GIVEN
MID/UPPER 50S SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS AREA...HOWEVER DIABATICALLY
HEATED SFC PARCELS YIELD WEAK INVERTED-V SUBCLOUD PROFILES THAT MAY
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW GUSTS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AR AND SCENTRAL/SERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091955Z - 092200Z



ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF WW
51...CENTRAL AR AND SCENTRAL/SERN MO...IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT DATA SHOWS CLEARING TREND WAS PROGRESSING INTO
CENTRAL AR BEHIND SQUALL LINE OVER THE MS VALLEY. AS A RESULT THE
AIRMASS WAS DESTABILIZING AS /LIT WAS 70/62 AT 19Z/. GIVEN SATELLITE
TRENDS...THIS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE AND DEVELOP NWD INTO
SCENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SERN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LITTLE CINH REMAINS AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL MO BY 20Z. GIVEN
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR/COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL AR AND SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51...
   
   VALID 092106Z - 092230Z
   
   THREAT FOR SVR WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST ACROSS NCENTRAL AR IN THE NEXT
   2 HOURS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z
   FOR THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CLUSTER /NERN AR/ AND OUTSIDE OF WW
   51.
   
   LATEST RAD/SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NWRN AR. SVR
   WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH STORMS IN THE
   CLUSTER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS ACTIVITY
   WAS ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED VORT MAX. GIVEN THE MODEST
   INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG PER MODEL SOUNDING DATA/
   SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE HE VORT MAX HAS
   AIDED IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS CLUSTER. FURTHER
   SOUTH...CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP OVER THE SERN PORTION OF WW 51
   INTO CENTRAL AR...BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /70-90 KTS/ WILL TEND
   TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER
   NORTH IN SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MO WEAKER INSTABILITY /MUCAPES FROM
   500-750 J/KG/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SVR THREAT.
   
   GIVEN OVERALL LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF VORT MAX INTO
   NCENTRAL AR...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT.
   HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
   SVR HAIL WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   38369084 38439256 37359304 35579341 35149317 34729293
   35279257 36819172

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN INDIANA...W-CENTRAL THROUGH N-CENTRAL
   KY...WRN/MID TN...SWRN OH.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...
   
   VALID 092132Z - 092300Z
   
   LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW PATTERNS WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS WW AREA...AND THEN UP OH VALLEY TOWARD
   REMAINDER SERN INDIANA...N-CENTRAL KY AND SWRN OH.  LINE HAS
   PRODUCED DAMAGING GUSTS AND FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS IN PAST 2-3 HOURS.
   WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND THIS CONVECTION.  TN PORTION OF LINE WILL
   MOVE INTO NRN SECTION OF SVR WW 53 BEFORE WW 52 EXPIRES.
   
   MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE BASE OF EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER WILL
   REMAIN ON OR BARELY ABOVE SFC FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...MAINTAINING AT
   LEAST MRGL TORNADO RISK GIVEN PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR AND ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
   MEAN LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE BUOYANCY...KEEPING MUCAPES BELOW 500
   J/KG IN MOST AREAS.  ONCE ACTIVITY MOVES E AND NE OF WW
   AREA...OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING THETAE IN NEAR-SFC LAYER...AS ACTIVITY
   MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...OCNL WIND
   DAMAGE MAY PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS FAR NE AS SWRN OH.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...
   
   40078583 38848661 37998705 36628836 36068848 35618848
   35218818 35228770 35888711 36688657 36678509 39088414
   39978480