Historic outbreak Sunday: The aftermath

WaitingForSiren · #261 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 5:24 am

SPC has put out a huge MODERATE risk area tomorrow. I think the areal coverage may need to be downsized, but other than that I agree.

conestogo_flood · #262 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 9:55 am

When will this start? Noon, 2pm?

conestogo_flood · #263 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 10:44 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...AR

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 111536Z - 111630Z

...MODERATE RISK WILL BE EXTENDED NWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN MO
AND SRN IL ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NEWD THROUGH TX THIS MORNING WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD INTO MO/SRN IL. INTENSE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER NWD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MO/IL
AND THE MODERATE RISK WILL BE EXTENDED INTO THESE AREA ON THE
UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL
...THOUGH TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

..IMY.. 03/11/2006

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

33599307 34069478 35999490 37489371 39089185 39389035
38918841 36908900 35149017 34339141

#264 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 11:01 am

Here we go...back into Storm Watch for the weekend! Maps coming shortly.

Extremeweatherguy · #265 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 11:06 am

that slight risk area is getting mighty close to SE Texas...but I guess it is of no concern to me since I am currently on the east coast of Florida. Still it will be interesting to see if Houston sees anything severe while I am gone...I just hope I don't miss anything good! :wink:

#266 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 11:22 am

These are my prediction maps - NOT OFFICIAL FORECASTS.

This map is for today.

This map is for tomorrow.

Skywatch_NC · #267 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:10 pm

breeze wrote:
Skywatch_NC wrote:Did any of you guys catch TWC's Jeff Morrow doing an onsite report in the middle of a severe t-storm yesterday in Muscle Shoals, AL?

Eric

Yep - like a hurricane report, except strong frontline winds and
cold rain!

Ah, Sunday, as well? Can we please collect the shingles from
yesterday's roof demise before we have another, Sunday?

Annette, you lost some shingles? :eek:

WaitingForSiren · #268 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:13 pm

*THE FOLLOWING ARE NOT OFFICIAL FORECASTS, AND ARE THE OPINION OF MYSELF AND MYSELF ONLY*

My thinking on Sunday hasnt changed too much, other than I have moved the highest threat area a little further north/west. I think this thing will come out a little slower than forecast and thus the svr threat has increased slightly further west and a little northward. abundant moisture and a strong dry-line along with a pretty deep area of low pressure should set the stage for significant episode of severe weather. I wouldnt be surprised if tomorrow is actually a high risk day, but I dont want to overdo the severe threat in a situation where the main concern is large hail, since hail isnt as widespread as wind damage, so I think a moderate risk should verify better.

Also, this is my final call on both today and tomorrow. I want to see how well this one verfies. I verefied very well with thursdays outbreak, although my tornado forecast busted.

6SpeedTA95 · #269 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:21 pm

WaitingForSiren wrote:*THE FOLLOWING ARE NOT OFFICIAL FORECASTS, AND ARE THE OPINION OF MYSELF AND MYSELF ONLY*

My thinking on Sunday hasnt changed too much, other than I have moved the highest threat area a little further north/west. I think this thing will come out a little slower than forecast and thus the svr threat has increased slightly further west and a little northward. abundant moisture and a strong dry-line along with a pretty deep area of low pressure should set the stage for significant episode of severe weather. I wouldnt be surprised if tomorrow is actually a high risk day, but I dont want to overdo the severe threat in a situation where the main concern is large hail, since hail isnt as widespread as wind damage, so I think a moderate risk should verify better.

Also, this is my final call on both today and tomorrow. I want to see how well this one verfies. I verefied very well with thursdays outbreak, although my tornado forecast busted.

whats the reasoning for having your threat so far west?

WaitingForSiren · #270 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:27 pm

I think the models are too fast with the system, and I noticed the latest runs slow it down a little bit. Also, it really isnt THAT far west.

#271 Postby **wx247** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:35 pm

I am not liking the looks of the maps above. The severe season is coming too early. Hopefully things will turn out like earlier this week when we were supposed to see a lot of storms, but it didn't really pan out. Although parameters look exceptionally favorable tomorrow.

6SpeedTA95 · #272 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 12:48 pm

WaitingForSiren wrote:I think the models are too fast with the system, and I noticed the latest runs slow it down a little bit. Also, it really isnt THAT far west.

You're a good 60 miles west of the NWS predictions. Which is ok, I hopeyou're right. I noticed the system slowing a bit too. We NEEEEEED the rain and I like severe weather

but it'd be nice to grill a burger again...bring on the freakin' storms!

WaitingForSiren · #273 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 3:43 pm

Yeah, I hope you guys in Oklahoma get a dumping of rain tomorrow .

wxmann_91 · #274 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 3:52 pm

Supercells blowing up in MO and IL attm...

WaitingForSiren · #275 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 3:59 pm

Yeah man, look at this supercell in Arkansas.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

#276 Postby **drezee** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 4:03 pm

Tornado Warning
MOC009-112215-
/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0003.060311T2058Z-060311T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BARRY COUNTY IN MISSOURI.

* UNTIL 415 PM CST.

* AT 255 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF WHEATON...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NEOSHO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PURDY BY 315 PM CST.
NEAR MONETT BY 320 PM CST.

THE TOWN OF PIONEER IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3691 9406 3692 9403 3692 9373 3691 9372
3691 9364 3682 9364 3680 9363 3679 9364
3671 9408

$$

CRAMER

#277 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 4:05 pm

Wow, here we go! Could be a long couple days!

Skywatch_NC · #278 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 4:14 pm

Take care, Garrett, there in SW MO!

6SpeedTA95 · #279 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 5:25 pm

WaitingForSiren wrote:Yeah, I hope you guys in Oklahoma get a dumping of rain tomorrow .

For the last 6 months we're 19 inches behind on rain, if you wanna go back to jan of 05 we're 27 inches down on rain :eek3:

#280 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Mar 11, 2006 7:49 pm

Only one tornado reported so far - in southern California...

Historic outbreak Sunday: The aftermath

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