MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN MS...SERN LA.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50...
   
   VALID 092151Z - 092245Z
   
   WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF SEVERE TSTMS. ACTIVITY
   WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AS IT MOVES NEWD
   ACROSS ERN/SRN MS AND PORTIONS SERN LA.  TORNADO THREAT STILL
   REMAINS BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME OVER NRN PORTION OF
   LINE AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE AIR
   MASS...AND INTO SEVERE WW 53.
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER INFLOW SECTOR FARTHER S -- ACROSS SERN MS
   AND SERN LA -- IS EXPECTED TO VEER SOMEWHAT AS REGION OF STRONGEST
   PRESSURE FALLS SHIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM AREA.  THIS MAY REDUCE
   CONVERGENCE AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF SRN PORTION OF
   CONVECTIVE BAND.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
   FAVORABLE...HOWEVER...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 400-600 J/KG AND 0-6 KM AGL
   SHEARS OF 60-80 KT.  MLCAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WILL DIMINISH
   THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AFTER PEAK SFC HEATING...BUT LIFTED
   PARCELS SHOULD REMAIN SFC BASED FOR REMAINDER OF DURATION OF WW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   30839135 31808971 33438873 34948793 34788763 33098830
   32048864 30818856 29738982 29249124 29599210

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/NERN AR...FAR WRN KY/SRN IL AND WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 092244Z - 092345Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARDS
   THE MS VALLEY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 23Z.
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A SQUALL
   LINE FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION. RECENT TRACKING OF THE BACK EDGE OF
   THE CIRRUS SHEATH INDICATES NEWD MOVEMENT OF 65-70 KTS. THIS SPEED
   HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HRS...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH AXIS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER AR.
   MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WAS MOVING AROUND 40-45 KTS.
   THUS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION AND THREAT FOR SVR STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NERN AR/SERN MO INTO FAR WRN KY/WRN TN
   AND SRN IL. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG
   WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ WAS BEGINNING
   TO REDEVELOP /PER BLM PROFILER/ OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THUS AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...
   
   38278852 37848779 36188845 35288898 35088961 35339101
   35909144 38099004

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN AL/MIDDLE AND ERN TN/NRN GA/CENTRAL
   AND ERN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53...
   
   VALID 092254Z - 092330Z
   
   ONE OR TWO NEW WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FROM GA NWD
   TO PARTS OF KY.
   
   STRONG SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO OVER NRN AL WILL CONTINUE
   MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 55-60 KT...WITH THE BOW OVER NRN AL
   HAVING THE FASTEST SPEED AROUND 60 KT.
   
   LATEST SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS INDICATED A PERSISTENT RISE/FALL
   COUPLET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS /RISES/ INTO NRN AL/MIDDLE TN
   /FALLS/...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE...MAINTAINING THE FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION.  VAD WIND
   DATA OVER MS IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE/BOW ECHO INDICATED WSWLY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT 55-70 KT IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER AGL.  THIS WILL
   FAVOR THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES ENEWD.
   DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG AFOREMENTIONED FORCING WILL
   COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUED SEVERE
   THREAT EAST AND NORTH OF WW 53.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
   
   32188877 34028740 36018706 37918592 38538446 38018264
   35998326 35558335 33808360 32438422 32038692

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50...
   
   VALID 092343Z - 100015Z
   
   WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10/00Z.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED NEWD INTO
   AL...WITH A FEW STORMS ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE
   INTO SRN MS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
   STORMS WITHIN MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER SRN MS AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA.  HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING
   WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION ACROSS THE TN/OH
   RIVER VALLEYS...SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT WITHIN VALID PART OF WW 50
   AND POTENTIALLY ADJACENT PARTS OF SWRN AL WILL BE MINIMAL ALLOWING
   THIS WATCH TO EXPIRE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   29109161 30209162 31529017 32208848 32008745 30208758
   29318891 28788915 28699063

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0654 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY/SRN IND/SWRN OH...SERN IL...FAR
   NERN AR AND WRN/MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 52...54...
   
   VALID 100054Z - 100300Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL END OVER THE REMAINING PORTION OF WW 52
   IN THE NEXT HALF OF AN HOUR...THUS WW 52 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
   AT 01Z. SVR THREAT MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   WRN/CENTRAL KY...SRN IND AND SWRN OH AND A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED IN
   THESE AREAS BEFORE THEN.
   
   CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WW 52 AND INTO WW 55
   OVER CENTRAL/ERN KY. FURTHER WEST...WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE
   OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY /WW 54/ WILL MOVE EWD FROM 35-45 KTS
   THROUGH REMAINDER OF WW 54 OVER THE 1-2 HOURS. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE
   TILT TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCING MID LEVEL COLD
   ADVECTION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE CONDITIONS OF
   AROUND 57/54 WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND
   MUCAPES AROUND 750 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN WRN KY/SWRN
   IND ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE...A CONTINUED
   FORWARD PROGRESS AND SEVERE THREAT IS VERY POSSIBLE WELL BEYOND 03Z.
   THUS A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KY/SRN
   IND...SWRN OH AND WRN/MIDDLE TN BEFORE THEN. DESPITE LINEAR
   STRUCTURE TO CONVECTIVE LINE...BACKED/STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AS
   EVIDENT BY THE PAH VWP /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 500 M2/S2/...WILL SUPPORT
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...
   
   39088417 39698466 38798836 37818925 36258959 35939009
   35609018 35468872 35848762 36218646

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0722 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/FAR WRN NC/PARTS OF ERN AL/NWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53...56...
   
   VALID 100122Z - 100215Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS WW 53 BY 0130Z AS STORMS
   CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WW 56.  THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS WW 56...WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NWRN
   GA AND ERN TN INTO FAR WRN NC...WHERE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO TRACK
   TO THE ENE AT AROUND 40 KT.  FARTHER S...THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
   SQUALL LINE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AL WAS MOVING TO THE ENE AT 30 KT.
   
   DECREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHTNING DATA DURING THE LAST HOUR /SINCE
   00Z/ ACROSS WW 53 AND 56 COMBINED WITH LESS OF A SIGNIFICANT
   RISE/FALL COUPLET ACROSS THIS REGION AND A STRONG CAP ON THE 00Z ATL
   SOUNDING SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...
   
   32108774 32818686 34208600 35138578 35608585 36648533
   36538334 35028363 33278467 32578537 32108648

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0819 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN KY/FAR SERN IND/SWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...
   
   VALID 100219Z - 100315Z
   
   LOW-TOPPED FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SERN/ERN PART OF WW 55 THROUGH 0330Z.
   DESPITE LACK OF LIGHTNING ALONG THIS CONVECTIVE LINE...CURRENTLY
   EXTENDING FROM MONTGOMERY TO LAUREL COUNTIES IN ERN KY...NARROW AXIS
   OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THIS LINE COMBINED WITH FORWARD SPEED AT
   40-45 KT SUGGESTS THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST.
   
   ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF WW 55...
   FAST MOVING /ENE AT 55 KT/ UPSTREAM BOW ECHO WITH THE APEX CURRENTLY
   APPROACHING WRN KY COUNTIES OF MCLEAN TO TODD IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
   SW-W PART OF WW 55 AROUND 03Z. GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM
   BOW...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ACROSS ALL OF WW 55 AS STRONG
   MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
   OVERSPREADS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
   
   39548478 39478272 38328269 37208299 36588395 36638640
   38078588

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1018 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IND/SWRN OH/CENTRAL-ERN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...57...
   
   VALID 100418Z - 100515Z
   
   STRONG DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KY/SRN IND AND
   SPREADING ENEWD INTO ERN KY/SWRN OH BY 05Z.
   
   DESPITE DRAMATIC DECREASE IN LIGHTNING WITH FAST MOVING BOW ECHO...
   STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREADING
   ENEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY JUST WEST OF THE LOW-TOPPED BOW ECHO WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  STRONGEST PART OF BOW
   ECHO WAS MOVING ENEWD AT AROUND 60 KT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY ATTM.
   AREA VAD WIND DATA INDICATED 50-60 KT WLY FLOW EXTENDING INTO THE
   LOWER-TROPOSPHERE /JUST OFF THE SURFACE/.  EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN
   THE WAKE OF THE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DOWNWARD TRANSFER
   OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE...MAINTAINING FAST MOVEMENT OF
   BOW AND SUBSEQUENT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...
   
   36648637 37348574 37998555 38678620 39338649 39548485
   39438263 37518297 36558392

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/SWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...
   
   VALID 100526Z - 100600Z
   
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 55
   THROUGH 06Z.  GREATEST THREAT DURING THE NEXT HOUR SHOULD BE ACROSS
   NERN KY INTO SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL OH ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH APEX OF
   REMAINING BOW. ALTHOUGH SOME WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE ENE OF THE
   WATCH...ISOLATED COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A NEW WW.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED REFLECTIVITY DECREASING AS BOW CONTINUED
   TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE ENE.  LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTED
   SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE APEX OF THE BOW ACROSS
   NORTH CENTRAL KY.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE BOW IS PRIMARILY ELEVATED
   WITH LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS HAVING MORE DIFFICULTY MIXING DOWN TO
   THE SURFACE.  DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WANE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
   
   36658560 37398448 38768383 39168404 39598415 39448273
   38648266 37528297 36558396

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/SWRN GA AND THE FL PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 100930Z - 101100Z
   
   TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER SERN AL MAY POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LIGHTNING AND REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE TSTMS INTENSIFYING FROM
   AUO SWWD TO 20 S OF GZH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING
   EWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS
   DEVELOPMENT.  35-45 KT SWLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF MID 60S
   DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THESE INTENSIFYING STORMS...WHICH ARE LARGELY
   CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   
   RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL VWP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
   AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY SHEARED WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS
   WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 50
   KTS.  GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...A TORNADO
   WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   30268736 31108699 32128577 32668507 32688450 32318398
   31428398 30618417 30048442 29558500 29668654

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL
   PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101937Z - 102130Z
   
   SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING ALONG GULF COASTAL PLAIN FROM
   SERN LA TO WRN FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA...AND SLOWLY SHIFTING/ EXPANDING
   INLAND.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MIDLEVEL CAPPING BUT VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
   SOME PARTS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED WW THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM SRN SC WSWWD NEAR LINE FROM
   MCN TO DHN...BLENDING WITH MARINE/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WWD TOWARD MCB.
    COMBINED BOUNDARY DENOTES NRN EDGE OF RICHEST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
   AND MOST UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...AND IS MOVING SLOWLY INLAND
   AT UP TO 10 KT ACROSS MOST OF THIS CORRIDOR.  LIFT APPEARS TO BE
   WEAK ALONG THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...DIABATICALLY DRIVEN
   DESTABILIZATION HAS REDUCED SBCIN TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   GULF COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS
   AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUD ELEMENTS
   THICKENING/DEEPENING OVER THIS REGION...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
   ATTEMPTS TO OVERCOME WARM/STABLE LAYER AROUND 700 MB EVIDENT IN AVBL
   MORNING RAOBS. WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID/UPPER 60S F...MLCAPES
   500-1000 J/KG ARE AVAILABLE TO ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION THAT CAN
   PENETRATE THAT STABLE LAYER...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN.
   ALSO...WEAK CB HAVE BEEN FORMING ALL DAY LONG IN FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW
   LOCATED BETWEEN MOB-MCN...AND MAY INTENSIFY DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
   INFLOW LAYER IS OPTIMALLY HEATED.
   
   0-1 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE ARE FAVORABLE WITH
   100-200 J/KG SRH IN THAT LAYER OVER MUCH OF REGION...HOWEVER
   PRONOUNCED FLOW WEAKNESSES IN 2-4 KM LAYER LIMIT DEEPER LAYER SRH.
   MRGL 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KT ALSO ARE EVIDENT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   31338477 30408578 30338791 30339057 30609241 30949297
   31439284 31859272 32349191 31909022 31638849 31578749
   31888602 31908513 31838481 31508461

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0223
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL THROUGH SE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 102056Z - 102300Z
   
   CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS E TX
   DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...IN FAVORABLY SHEARED AND INCREASINGLY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DESTRUCTIVE
   HAIL...AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM ABOUT 25 W ALI...10 E SAT...40 W
   ACT...40 SW FTW...LOSING IDENTITY FARTHER N WHERE AIR MASS TO ITS E
   HAS NOT YET MOISTENED IN RETURN FLOW.  LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG
   DRYLINE HAS LED TO CONCENTRATED CU/TCU FROM CORYELL COUNTY NWD TO
   HOOD COUNTY.  ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION INITIALLY WOULD
   BE HIGH-BASED WITH 20-30 DEG SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...BUT MOIST
   ADVECTION WOULD INCREASE INFLOW-LAYER THETAE WITH TIME...AND
   MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FAVORABLY OVER E-CENTRAL/NE TX WITH TIME.
   
   FARTHER SE TOWARD CLL/LFK AREA...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER BUT SO
   IS CAPPING...AND SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO MID/UPPER 60S F.
   MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH HAS WEAKENED TO NEAR ZERO
   ACROSS PORTIONS SE TX AROUND CLL/HOU/LFK AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   1. STRONG HEATING/MIXING OF INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   2. SLY FLOW IN 750-900 MB LAYER...CONTAINING COOLER THERMAL PROFILES
   THAN WILL BE PRESENT IN SWLY TRAJECTORIES FCST TO MOVE OVER AREA BY
   ABOUT 00Z.  FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO VEER BY 00Z AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER WINDS
   OVER S-CENTRAL TX -- CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD ARKLATEX REGION.
   THIS WILL INCREASE SBCINH THROUGH ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER
   AIR NEWD OVER AREA.  PROFILER DATA INDICATE ABOUT 300 J/KG SRH IN
   0-3 KM LAYER...AND 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   30709787 31649776 32409759 32659726 32929686 32699589
   32229571 31539539 31179488 30919417 30179450 29789535
   30599655

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0224
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0652 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-ERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 110052Z - 110215Z
   
   ISOLATED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER FROM FAR NRN COOKE
   COUNTY TX NWD INTO SRN OK OVER JOHNSTON/PONTOTOC COUNTIES...WITH
   ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/SPREADING NEWD INTO ERN OK.
   
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD THIS EVENING INTO SRN
   OK...WITH THE 00Z FORT WORTH SOUNDING INDICATING A FAIRLY DEEP
   MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB SINCE 12Z.  A FEW
   STORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HOUR OVER COOKE COUNTY TX...WITH
   MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN OK NE OF ADM. 00Z FORT WORTH
   SOUNDING INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS THIS EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
   
   INCREASING SSWLY LLJ AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS
   ERN OK INTO WRN AR LATER THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING HAIL FROM ELEVATED STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   33849732 34029729 34599707 35189695 35699644 35649452
   34029467 33779601 33689683

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1012 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN-CENTRAL AR/SWRN-SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58...
   
   VALID 110412Z - 110545Z
   
   NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT TO THE E AND NE OF WW 58...
   PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AR INTO SRN MO.
   
   AT 04Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SERN
   OK FROM BRYAN TO PITTSBURG COUNTIES...WITH STORMS EXTENDING NEWD TO
   MAYES/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NERN OK.  THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED
   OVER THE SRN PART OF WW 58 IS CLOSER TO THE INFLOW OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY.  THESE STORMS CONTINUED TO SHOW GREATER DEVIANT MOTION
   TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN WIND /ENEWD AT 25-30 KT/ AS COMPARED TO THE
   STORMS OVER NERN OK WHICH WERE TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE LLJ AT SPEEDS
   CLOSE TO 60 KT.  THUS...STORMS THAT CONTINUE TO HAVE DEVIANT MOTION
   MAY POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
   
   THE STORMS OVER NERN OK HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED FARTHER AWAY
   FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR.  HOWEVER...AIR
   MASS OVER NERN OK INTO WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO IS EXPECTED
   DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE NIGHT PER STRONG SSWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD
   FROM ERN OK INTO AR/MO.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS GIVEN NEWD TRACK OF SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER WRN OK...AND WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF 70
   KT MID LEVEL JET OVER MID MS VALLEY.  THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING
   SUPERCELLS MAY REQUIRE A NEW WW OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AR
   INTO MO AS STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
   
   33939757 36099651 36919523 38639422 38159196 35459210
   34459345 33769528 33719648

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL NEB...CNTRL SD AND FAR SE ND
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 110504Z - 111000Z
   
   CORRECTED TO PLACE TIME IN FIRST PARAGRAPH.
   
   A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BANDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
   FROM PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL NEB THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO FAR SE ND.
   SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z.
   
   SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NEWD
   OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHEN ON NOSE OF 130 KT JET ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR MCK WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARDS FSD
   BY 12Z. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
   PROGGED TO COMMENCE TO THE NW OF THE LOW FROM CNTRL NEB INTO ERN SD.
   RUC/NAM-ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SHARP DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN 800
   AND 700 MB WITH FULL SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER AROUND 600
   MB. SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RIBBON OF
   GREATER THAN 0.30 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS IN A 3 HR PERIOD. NAM-WRF
   HAS BEST REPRESENTATION OF QPF THIS EVENING AND SUPPORTS AN INCREASE
   IN QPF OVERNIGHT AS BATCH OF SNOWFALL OVER N-CNTRL NEB LIFTS INTO
   CNTRL SD.
   
   FURTHER EAST FROM AROUND 9V9 TO ABR...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
   SNOW AS WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES COOL TO FREEZING WITH INCREASED
   DYNAMICAL LIFTING OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD LIE
   JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE WITH RATES OF 1 IN/HR LIKELY.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...
   
   43950140 45260019 46369876 46379716 44709882 43479976
   42250086 42450219

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0227
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR / WRN TN / SERN MO / SRN IL / WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 110729Z - 110930Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 08-10Z.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   07Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD THROUGH CNTRL
   AR AND WRN TN WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S INTO LOWER
   60S S OF THIS FEATURE. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NEWD
   THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
   CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONGOING OVER ERN OK INTO
   WRN AR.
   
   SLY LLJ HAS ALSO INTENSIFIED AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE FROM THE
   SABINE RIVER VALLEY NWD THROUGH AR INTO MO AND THE MID MS RIVER
   VALLEY...WITH STRONG WAA CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER SRN INTO SERN MO  /PER RECENT LIGHTNING
   DATA/. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING
   AROUND 850 MB WITHIN THIS WAA REGIME...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WHERE MUCAPES ARE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG.
   
   IT APPEARS THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   NEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 09-12Z ALONG NOSE OF
   AFOREMENTIONED LLJ.  GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
   
   36029112 37209100 37779095 38519072 38799038 39048964
   38898843 38238782 37048797 36128863 35688900 35569062

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 110908Z - 111045Z
   
   EWD EXPANSION OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AS OF 09Z...REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED TSTMS
   BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NRN MS /S OF MEM/ PRESUMABLY ALONG SRN
   FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH AR.  ADDITIONAL...SHALLOWER CONVECTION
   IS ALSO BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TO THE NE OVER PARTS OF WRN AND
   MIDDLE TN INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY...LIKELY BEING DRIVEN MORE SO BY
   WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS.
   
   RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT AIR MASS IS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE /MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ ACROSS SRN HALF OF DISCUSSION
   AREA WITH CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE N
   ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF KY.
   
   LATEST TRENDS IN 11/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
   TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
   12Z.  GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
   
   35058963 36248892 37478827 38008771 38148716 38278644
   38008574 37178547 36288587 35318651 34818755 34568874

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 110934Z - 111100Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 11/12Z.  THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
   
   AS OF 0920Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
   TSTMS OVER SERN AND E-CNTRL MO INTO FAR SRN IL MOVING NE AT 45-55
   KTS.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
   ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF RICHER 850 MB MOISTURE WHICH IS BEING
   ADVECTED NNEWD ALONG LLJ AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
   DESTABILIZE NWD OWING TO THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
   WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO S ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND MID S...IN
   CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE WARM FRONT.
   
   THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE OUT OF WW 60.  THESE STORMS
   SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTEND AS AIR MASS BECOMES
   PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
   38559090 39079146 40019150 40549064 40618945 40518804
   39898706 39038708 38478751

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0429 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL AR INTO SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59...
   
   VALID 111029Z - 111130Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR WW REFERENCE...SHOULD BE WW59
   
   WW 59 LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z.
   
   DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH WW...TSTMS CONTINUE TO
   WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AR. PASSAGE OF
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NE OF AREA MAY...IN PART...BE CONTRIBUTING
   TO THIS OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND...WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING
   SHIFTING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 59
   WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z.
   
   OF INTEREST IS ENHANCED ZONE OF MID OR HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH
   HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SERN OK PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THERE
   IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS IS AN ADVECTIVE FEATURE OR ONE
   GENERATED VIA LOCALIZED ZONE OF ASCENT.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...
   
   33879548 37289299 37259060 33839322

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0231
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / SRN IND / WRN AND CNTRL KY / WRN
   AND MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60...61...
   
   VALID 111153Z - 111330Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW/S 60 AND
   61 THROUGH 13Z.  ADDITIONALLY...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE N AND E OF WW 61 OVER SRN IND INTO NRN KY. 
   
   AS OF 1140Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR MVN EWD TO 30 W SDF...WITH A GENERAL ENEWD
   MOTION OF 40-50 KTS.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND PLAN VIEW
   PROFILER/VAD DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A
   ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION /I.E. AROUND 850 MB/
   ALONG SWLY LLJ AXIS.  THIS MOISTENING BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   FOR PARCELS BASED IN THIS MOISTENING LAYER WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500
   J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG OR JUST
   N OF THE OH RIVER IN FAR SRN IND. 
   
   SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE N AND E OF WW
   61...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NEWD EXTENT
   SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.
   
   FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER
   SERN MO /NEAR CGI/ AND WRN TN /E OF MKL/.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE
   CLOSELY TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO THE MID MS
   VALLEY.  HERE TOO...AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPES OF
   1000-2000 J/KG/ WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS.  THEREFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL TO
   CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER SRN IL...WRN KY...AND WRN
   TN AS THESE STORMS MOVE NEWD.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   
   35689264 38719112 38748745 38868581 38658495 37878462
   37338578 34968755 34998973 35598943