Historic outbreak Sunday: The aftermath

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CrazyC83
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#381 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:08 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Don't see anything yet in Oklahoma, but conditions are definitely favorable for instant development...



I'm sorry dude but you keep making these extreme statements and now I'm gonna have to call you on it. It's just now warm enough to overcome the capping inversion assuming anything gets started. I think we'll see some action today, I hope we do, but "instant" developement? Sorry but we're still 2hrs away from moderate instability over the bulk of oklahoma...as temps rise instability will build but we're not there yet...if you are going to make a statement point me to something showing that "instant developement" is favorable...


They wouldn't have a PDS watch out if conditions weren't so favorable...
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#382 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:08 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Downtown KC could be in line for it...hopefully it doesn't touch down in an urban area!!!


KC metro area is HUGE its pretty spreadout based on what I'm looking at now a good portion of the metroplex is gettign hammered, specifically hte western and northern portions...
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#383 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:11 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Downtown KC could be in line for it...hopefully it doesn't touch down in an urban area!!!


KC metro area is HUGE its pretty spreadout based on what I'm looking at now a good portion of the metroplex is gettign hammered, specifically hte western and northern portions...


Looking at the map (I have a mapping program on here), it seems like it is running parallel to I-35 about 2-5 miles to the north and west. That should spare downtown the worst but the northern suburbs are in for a bruising...I'd say Clay County is under the gun next and should be under a tornado warning very soon.

Missouri as a whole is up for major storms this afternoon now!
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#384 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:11 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Don't see anything yet in Oklahoma, but conditions are definitely favorable for instant development...



I'm sorry dude but you keep making these extreme statements and now I'm gonna have to call you on it. It's just now warm enough to overcome the capping inversion assuming anything gets started. I think we'll see some action today, I hope we do, but "instant" developement? Sorry but we're still 2hrs away from moderate instability over the bulk of oklahoma...as temps rise instability will build but we're not there yet...if you are going to make a statement point me to something showing that "instant developement" is favorable...


They wouldn't have a PDS watch out if conditions weren't so favorable...


Sorry but you are hyping things, you've been doing it for days and I guess I'm just getting a bit annoyed by it. No one said conditions for supercells didn't exist.

As for the watch box, its been issued because they expect development of storms, which will hopefully occur. But lets just not go crazy with what we're saying in here...

I think in another hour or two we'll have conditions ripe for rapid development.

Although maybe we have two different version of "rapid development" living in Oklahoma my whole life I'm accustomed to storms going from nothing to tornadic in <45 mins. If you're from an area not prone to this your idea of instant development may be 2 hrs or something
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#385 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:11 pm

edit double post
Last edited by 6SpeedTA95 on Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#386 Postby simplykristi » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:11 pm

That storm is off to my NW by a good 15 miles so no a good part of KC is not getting hammered. The storm is in the NW part of the metro area.

Kristi
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#387 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:13 pm

simplykristi wrote:That storm is off to my NW by a good 15 miles so no a good part of KC is not getting hammered. The storm is in the NW part of the metro area.

Kristi


The north and west portions are under a pretty big cell...just as I said a few posts ago
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#388 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:14 pm

Talking with my aunt in KC now...she's got some pretty good hail come down...
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#389 Postby simplykristi » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:14 pm

Tornado warning for Cass (Mo) and Miami (KS) counties. Those counties are to my south.

Kristi
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#390 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:14 pm

I was thinking rapid development as nothing to severe in 30-60 minutes...farther north we don't get that in March, but definitely in June or July that happens quite often.
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#391 Postby WindRunner » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:15 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Downtown KC could be in line for it...hopefully it doesn't touch down in an urban area!!!


KC metro area is HUGE its pretty spreadout based on what I'm looking at now a good portion of the metroplex is gettign hammered, specifically hte western and northern portions...


Yeah, looks like the potential tornado could pass within 3 mi to the NE of the airport. Don't think that this tornado (if there is one) is particularly strong, though. Not much shear showing up on the wind products, which means that any tornado would be small, and the SW (which shows the shear within one radar bin) is low throughout the area, so the tornado is either weak or non-existant. There is however some strong straightline winds and some good size hail (>2") moving directly into KC.
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#392 Postby simplykristi » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:15 pm

I know! I have been monitoring the weather all morning and afternoon.

Kristi
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#393 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:16 pm

simplykristi wrote:Tornado warning for Cass (Mo) and Miami (KS) counties. Those counties are to my south.

Kristi


That has to be cell #2, that had developed around Emporia. Should follow I-70 roughly now.
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#394 Postby WindRunner » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:18 pm

simplykristi wrote:Tornado warning for Cass (Mo) and Miami (KS) counties. Those counties are to my south.

Kristi


This is the most dangerous storm out there right now - VERY strong winds there. As to a tornado, there could be, but the strong winds accompanying any possible circulation makes the winds of the tornado that go against the local winds hard to see.
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#395 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:19 pm

KSC209-MOC047-095-165-177-122045-
/O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0010.060312T2016Z-060312T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
216 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHWESTERN RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EASTERN WYANDOTTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 211 PM CST...TELEVISION HELICOPTER FOOTAGE SHOWED A FUNNEL
CLOUD AND ROTATING WALL CLOUD WITH A VERY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER
KANSAS CITY KANSAS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM
MOVING TO THE EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CLAYCOMO...SUGAR CREEK AND PLEASANT VALLEY BY 225 PM CST.
GLENAIRE AND LIBERTY BY 230 PM CST.
MISSOURI CITY BY 240 PM CST.
SIBLEY AND EXCELSIOR SPRINGS BY 245 PM CST.

THE TOWNS OF...OAKS...OAKWOOD...OAKWOOD
PARK...RANDOLPH...BIRMINGHAM...MOSBY AND PRATHERSVILLE ARE ALSO IN
THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO
BASEBALL SIZE IS EXPECTED FROM RIVERSIDE TO GLADSTONE TO LIBERTY.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3921 9477 3899 9463 3918 9413 3941 9426

$$

BOOKBINDER
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#396 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:19 pm

Dryline appears to be getting more pronounced according to the local stuff I'm hearing. Dewpoints are <20* in western OK and here in eastern OK its 50-65 and temps are inthe low 80s...come on RAIN!
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#397 Postby x-y-no » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:20 pm

KEAX composite relectivity:


Image

relative velocity:

Image
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#398 Postby WindRunner » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:21 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:AT 213 PM...LOCAL TELEVISION HELICOPTER FOOTAGE SHOWED A WELL
DEFINED FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM. A TORNADO MAY TOUCH DOWN AT
ANY TIME! PERSONS IN DOWNTOWN KANSAS CITY SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER
NOW!!! IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE IS EXPECTED FROM KANSAS CITY KANSAS TO RIVERSIDE.


Well, not much better confirmation of a circulation than that! :eek:
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#399 Postby WindRunner » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:22 pm

Everybody - look behind this storm! Around DeSoto there is a nice hook echo - NWS just put out the tornado warning for it.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
220 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
WYANDOTTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHEASTERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 216 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED AGAIN NEAR EUDORA...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DE SOTO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
EDWARDSVILLE...BONNER SPRINGS...SHAWNEE AND LAKE QUIVIRA BY 230 PM
CST.
8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MERRIAM AND 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MISSION BY
235 PM CST.
KANSAS CITY BY 240 PM CST.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Last edited by WindRunner on Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#400 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:23 pm

You want a good view of the dryline check this out
http://spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/index2.html
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