Historic outbreak Sunday: The aftermath

[6SpeedTA95]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
AT 2PM THE DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY TO JUST WEST
OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO JUST EAST OF WICHITA FALLS. THE CAP INDEX
IS WEAKEST IN NORTHEAST OSAGE COUNTY WHERE STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR AT ANY TIME AND WHERE SOME OF THE ONGOING SUPERCELLS DID DEVELOP.
THE CAP SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH PEAK HEATING AND ADDITIONAL
SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWN THE DRY LINE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA. BY 9PM THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A LINE FROM
NOWATA TO CLAREMORE TO JUST WEST MCALESTER AND ON SOUTH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
POSITION.

RAPID UPDATE CYCLE MODEL DATA SHOWS A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS THAT
WIND PROFILES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
EVEN MORE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z.
THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE FOR TORNADO FORMATION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS SPREADS THAT COULD LEAD TO
AGGRESSIVE REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFTS. HOWEVER THIS PARAMETER WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK A LITTLE
OFF THEIR MAX READINGS. THE LACK OF STRONGLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN
THE AREA WILL BE OFFSET BY THE RAPID CELL MOTION FORCING
MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE INFLOW. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at a radar - spectacular hook echos in Pettis and Saline Counties (60-80 miles east of Kansas City)...

[WindRunner]

Looking at a radar - spectacular hook echos in Pettis and Saline Counties...

Uploading pics of the Pettis hook now.

[snoopj]

Looking like more development of cells in Eastern Kansas. Round 3 for KC? Heh. /sigh

--snoopj

[WindRunner]

This is the one that is on the Pettis/Saline border right now.

Base Reflectivity:



Storm Relative Velocity:

[6SpeedTA95]

those are great hooks :eek3:

[CrazyC83]

Tornado reported on the ground in Henry County near Calhoun (KOMU).

Those are more spectacular than ever! Look out east-central Missouri!!

[CrazyC83]

Looking like more development of cells in Eastern Kansas. Round 3 for KC? Heh. /sigh

--snoopj

It's possible, since the dry line is nowhere near KC yet...I think this will be another all-nighter.

[WindRunner]

Report just in of 3 funnels sighted with the southernmost cell in S Pettis County

[CrazyC83]

Another tornado spotted in eastern Saline County - around Mile 85 on I-70.

[WindRunner]

Picture of the two hooks, with the text for the 3 funnels report:



If anyone would rather me just post links because the pictures are too big, please say so. Don't want to cause problems with other people's connections.

[x-y-no]

Classic hook echos there.

[CrazyC83]

Large, extremely dangerous tornado approaching Sedalia...could be ugly!!! Pray for the poor folks in that town!!!

[Brent]

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF EXTENSIVE DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM
SOUTHERN PETTIS COUNTY. SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING A LARGE ONE HALF MILE
WIDE TORNADO ON THE GROUND! THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO
VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE
COVER IMMEDIATELY!

THIS TORNADO WILL TRACK INTO OR VERY CLOSE TO EXTREME NORTHERN
MORGAN COUNTY. IF YOU LIVE IN NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN FLORENCE OR
SYRACUSE GET IN YOUR TORNADO SHELTER NOW TO SAVE YOUR LIFE!!

[senorpepr]

Speaking of Sedalia... here are a few METARs from KSZL (Whiteman AFB)

KSZL 122205Z 31003KT 7SM TS BKN020CB BKN050 BKN120 OVC250 20/17 A2954 RMK OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV NE WR//;
SPECI KSZL 122159Z 21011G22KT 6SM -TSRAGS BKN020CB BKN050 BKN120 OVC250 21/18 A2954 RMK OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV NE;
KSZL 122155Z 21015G22KT 6SM -TSRA BKN020CB BKN050 BKN120 OVC250 21/18 A2954 RMK PK WND 26029/38 OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV NE SLP043;
KSZL 122142Z 26019G29KT 6SM -TSRA BKN020CB BKN050 BKN120 OVC250 21/17 A2956 RMK FUNNEL CLOUD DSIPT OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV NE;
KSZL 122128Z 14009KT 5SM FC -TSRA BKN020CB BKN050 BKN120 OVC250 22/17 A2947 RMK FUNNEL CLOUD B27 6 W OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV NE;
KSZL 122116Z 14006KT 5SM -TSRA BKN020CB BKN050 BKN120 OVC250 22/17 A2952 RMK OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV NE;
KSZL 122055Z 15008KT 7SM TS SCT020CB BKN050 BKN120 BKN250 22/17 A2954 RMK OCNL LTGICCG CBMAM OHD MOV NE PRESFR SLP 56059;
KSZL 121955Z 16012KT 7SM SCT020 BKN040 BKN120 OVC250 23/17 A2960 RMK VIRGA W PRESFR SLP021;
KSZL 121855Z 16011KT 7SM SCT020 BKN040 BKN120 BKN250 22/16 A2970 RMK PRESFR SLP041 CONTRAILS;

[snoopj]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

MOC159-122230-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-060312T2230Z/
PETTIS MO-
412 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...TORNADO EMERGENCY EASTERN PETTIS COUNTY...
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN PETTIS COUNTY
UNTIL 43 PM...

AT 409 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HALF MILE
WIDE TORNADO. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION!! WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF GREEN RIDGE...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SEDALIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SEDALIA BY 420 PM CST.
SMITHTON BY 425 PM CST.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO
SOFTBALL SIZE IS EXPECTED IN SEDALIA.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

[CrazyC83]

Sedalia has a population of about 25,000.

[Brent]

Sedalia has a population of about 25,000.

I hope they all have an underground shelter.

AT 409 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HALF MILE
WIDE TORNADO. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION!! WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF GREEN RIDGE...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SEDALIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

Sedalia has a population of about 25,000.

I hope they all have an underground shelter.

Me too. It's 1/2 mile wide and likely at least capable of F3 damage based on the descriptions. We can only pray for those poor folks.

[6SpeedTA95]

Potential F3/F4 on the ground now...

AT 409 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HALF MILE WIDE TORNADO. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!! WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION HAS BEEN REPORTED