How strong could an Atlantic/Carrib/GOM storm get MCP-wise?

[JTD]

Is there a floor to how low of a pressure an atlantic storm could get?Considering that Wilma got to 882, I would say that 875 might not be unrealistic, perhaps even 870-865?

What do you all think? What are the factors that come into play? I would assume that given the perfect conditions and no ERC, we could get extremely low.

[Weatherfreak000]

Wilma's Pressure likely got below 882 MB. But considering the pressure that seems about standard in every basin int he world, i'd say 875 MB is probably about the cap we'll see with hurricanes, at least until the water superheats 10 more degrees and we'll have a real issue with supercanes.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I think with the active cycle we're in now, we may see a few more of these extraordinary storms. Gilbert was the first to grab our attention with its extremely low central pressure; then along came Wilma.

Storms with MCP's of lower than 900 are rather rare to begin with; but below 890, well the stats speak for themselves. I suppose with nature in a frenzy just about anything is possible; but I'd say anything below 870-875 would be a once in 300 year or better phenomenon... who knows? Personally, I think Wilma's record low is going to stand for quite a while yet.

A2K

[JonathanBelles]

2 things
what is a MCP?
what is the difference between a cat 5 hurricane and a supercane?

[Scorpion]

We have only been in hurricanes for the past 50 years, and those early ones we went in we maybe did not get to them at their peak. I am sure there was a stronger hurricane than Wilma in the past 50 years. I would say pressure in the 860's would be possible if a storm like Wilma occured in August or September.

[weatherwoman132]

yeah. i think it's possible.

[JTD]

2 things
what is a MCP?
what is the difference between a cat 5 hurricane and a supercane?

Minimum central pressure. Just my own abbreviation. How deep a storm is.

No such thing as a super-cane on earth but I believe Mars has them or Saturn? I'm not sure if they exist at all though. Right now, there is only a cat 1-5 hurricane here.

[JonathanBelles]

ok

and im glad there are no supercanes

[senorpepr]

Well... officially there is no Super Hurricane, but US military categorizes hurricanes with winds at or above 130KT (upper cat 4) as Super Hurricanes. This is the same critieria as for Super Typhoons.

[Derek Ortt]

the MPI in the NW Caribbean is closer to 850mb, and the eddy that Katrina crossed was even more rediculous. Our MM5 at UM simulation had an MPI of about 810mb for Katrina over the eddy

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/%7Ejohnc/an ... na_mpi.jpg

Wilmas 882 was not close to the intensity that a hurricane can reach

[Scorpion]

810?? Jesus. I wonder what the satellite signature of a storm that strong would look like.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Wilmas 882 was not close to the intensity that a hurricane can reach

Do they have the lowest MPI Wilma reached? At any rate, her central pressure may (doubtless isn't) the lowest one CAN each; but she's the lowest any have reached in recorded history conceding the fact that this doesn't go back much beyond half a century with very reliable data.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Addendum: That is to say we're talking Atlantic Basin here.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

I'd also like a clarification of what the distinction is between MPI and MCP, as the question directly refers to MCP. Just curious.

A2K

[ROCK]

MPI= Maximum Potential Intensity.

I think what Derek was trying to add was that Wilma had the potential to drop even further. Maybe she did when we didn't have a plane in her at the time. Every TS has a MPI.

Just to clarify......

[Audrey2Katrina]

Okay, nevermind... did some research, MPI is the "theoretical" Maximum Potential Intensity" which, in layman's terms would be what a storm "could" reach given every optimal condition. According to what limited research I've done, most, if not all, storms do not reach MPI. Regardless, it's an interesting theory but given the extremely diverse influences that can prevent a storm from reaching MPI, I feel that while the 882 of Wilma can, and probably will, be eclipsed, storms reaching an MPI as their actual MCP as low as 810 won't be happening any time soon--too many variables working against it.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

MPI= Maximum Potential Intensity.

I think what Derek was trying to add was that Wilma had the potential to drop even further. Maybe she did when we didn't have a plane in her at the time. Every TS has a MPI.

Just to clarify......

Thanks for the clarification, apparently we were about to post at the same time. Perhaps Wilma's actual intensity did get below that 882, somewhere between readings; which is why since he observed an 810 MPI on Katrina, I asked what the MPI was on Wilma.

A2K

[Brent]

the MPI in the NW Caribbean is closer to 850mb, and the eddy that Katrina crossed was even more rediculous. Our MM5 at UM simulation had an MPI of about 810mb for Katrina over the eddy

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/%7Ejohnc/an ... na_mpi.jpg

Wilmas 882 was not close to the intensity that a hurricane can reach

810 mb?

Does a barometer even go that low?

[ROCK]

"the MPI in the NW Caribbean is closer to 850mb" to quote Derek. Meaning at the time she was tranversing the NW caribbean the MPI for Wilma was 850. She got down to 882... close enough in my book...

[Derek Ortt]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~johnc/anal ... ta_mpi.jpg

Rita came very close to its MPI, only about a 10mb difference.

Something was keeping Katrina well short of its MPI, which is a very scary thought. Had it have been more efficient, it may very well have hit as a cat 4 or a 5 along the Gulf Coast