NWS MIA Confirms a Strong Bermuda High, a Precursor?

#121 Postby **windycity** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 4:32 pm

true, things could change, but when risk factors start coming into play, this early,ya gotta wonder if this is only the beginning. If it werent for the ridging and LaNina, i would say that the gulf is at higher risk this season. Higher SSTs in the western carib. and the loop current that is larger and warmer than last year CANT be good.

CHRISTY · #122 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 5:01 pm

with this high pressure ridge we probably are not gonna get any of this =

#123 Postby **windycity** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 5:48 pm

i hear ya. remember 2004 and how dry it was? A dry spring spells hurricanes. Granted, things could change,but we are running outta days before the season starts. Im just nervous that the Bermuda High is pitching his tent on Floridas east coast and plans on stayin cause the weathers so nice. 8-)

Scorpion · #124 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 6:21 pm

Just imagine 2004-like setup with the Bermuda High, plus a La Nina. Perhaps a Frances-like storm that does not weaken?

#125 Postby **windycity** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 6:26 pm

I hear ya. The thought is down right scary,Scorpin. You just might get your wish about experiencing a cat 5!

#126 Postby **windycity** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 6:30 pm

how about back to back Francis and Jeanne but neither weaken? I cant think of anything much worse! :cry:

#127 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 10:16 pm

up in Orlando all weekend. What a nice ESE wind blowing there all weekend! This high is very unusual for this time of year. On the way back I hit some summer-like pop up showers blowing in off the Atlantic on 95 between Palm Beach and Boynton Beach.

Reminds of summer but it is very early.... :eek:

#128 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 10:26 pm

GFS is already looking alot like summer. It predicts the western Atlantic ridge holding strong. I posted some maps showing the ridge, but what is more concerning has been verified by the NWS with the following discussion for the week of March 13th

Thanks Boca for pointing this out...

Mia Discussion:

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN..GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE ALL
WINTER. SO FAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS DURING
WHICH A TROUGH HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DIG DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. AND BRING COLD AIR TO OUR ZONES. THESE WERE THE TWO FREEZE
SITUATIONS WE HAD EARLIER IN THE WINTER. SINCE THIS UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE..ANY FRONTS THAT WE HAVE MOVE INTO OUR ZONES
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO BRING ANY BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGES WITH THEM.
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THEM WILL MAINLY MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC TO OUR
NORTH. ALSO THIS UPPER RIDGE HAS GENERALLY PREVENTED ANY DEEP FLOW
OF MOISTURE FROM RETURNING AHEAD OF ANY FRONT SO WE HAVE ALSO HAD
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THEM. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WAS IN THE
PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING IN
OUR DIRECTION UNTIL LATE TOMORROW. WHAT IS LEFT OF IT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE IN OUR VICINITY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT AFTER THAT IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
ZONES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEITHER OF THESE FRONTS SHOULD
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS. THEIR TWO MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS

#129 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 10:32 pm

This strong Bermuda high needs to leave us for hurricane season. So far it is not looking good right now. Latest discussion showing how strong this ridging is for this time of year.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 130254
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 PM EST SUN MAR 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT THAT WE ARE DUE TO HAVE MOVE IN ON
WEDNESDAY IS IN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING
LOW THAT WILL BRING IT HERE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST SO FAR NORTH
OF OUR AREA THAT THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT IS PUSHED INTO OUR
ZONES WILL BE THAT PORTION WITH THE WEAKEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THIS ALONG WITH OUR UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO HELP CUTOFF THE RETURN
OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT LOW.
ALSO THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MEAN THE COLDER AIR WILL MAINLY MOVE EAST
WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN ADDITION WE ARE SEEING AN UPPER TROUGH BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 60 AND 65W NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
PROBABLY DEEPEN SOME AS OUR LARGE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. SO OUR UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY EVEN MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. BECAUSE OF THIS IT APPEARS OUR WEDNESDAY FRONT
WILL ACTUALLY STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR ZONES. THIS PATTERN WILL
MEAN THAT THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT EITHER. INSTEAD THE COLD AIR
BEHIND IT WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THEN SPREAD BACK OVER THE
PENINSULA.

YouTube · #130 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 11:03 pm

Yikes! This is not sounding good even though it is only March. It is neat because you can actually see this feature on the 500mb GFS animations. We will all watch it closely once we get in to the season. We'll have a trough come by from time to time- but this winter has been an easy one for us here in the Carolinas and points south. Heck the high-temp in DC tomorrow is supposed to be in the mid-80s! Look out below....

#131 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 11:04 pm

I finally got some rain here in boynton beach... anyone pick up a stray shower down here in s. fl.

#132 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 11:05 pm

Yep, but it is due to the deep moisture flow around the Bermuda High which is sparking some Atlantic showers - just like you would see in the summer here in South Florida.

boca · #133 Postby **boca** » Sun Mar 12, 2006 11:16 pm

Tues will be 87°F,its still stinken March

#134 Postby **MGC** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:26 am

The trend is your friend.....MGC

Derek Ortt · #135 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 4:51 am

its March. The longwave pattern can undergo massive changes before the heart of the season

weatherwoman132 · #136 Postby **weatherwoman132** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 6:55 am

gosh...

#137 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 8:33 am

its March. The longwave pattern can undergo massive changes before the heart of the season

Let's hope so. When was the last time we had a major change in this pattern? I think we have to go all the way back to fall of 2005?

Ixolib · #138 Postby **Ixolib** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 8:47 am

windycity wrote:...Im just nervous that the Bermuda High is pitching his tent on Floridas east coast and plans on stayin cause the weathers so nice.

Funny that you referred to the high as a "he". Somehow, I always thought of it as a "she"... Something about a woman scorned, etc...

boca · #139 Postby **boca** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:10 am

Derek Ortt · #140 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:36 am

the pattern can change almost overnight. In 2004, in August there was a deep trough near the EC, which brought everything into the Carolinas, giving them 3 canes in a month. After Gaston and Hermine moved out, a long wave ridge set up, yielding Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. The pattern can change, which is why I do not pay any attention to what is currently going on

NWS MIA Confirms a Strong Bermuda High, a Precursor?

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