MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1039 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND THROUGH SRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 130439Z - 130615Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
   PARTS OF NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WW WILL LIKELY
   BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 0530Z.
   
   LATE THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE IND...MI BORDER
   WWD THROUGH NERN IL. ANOTHER WARM FRONT FARTHER S EXTENDS FROM SWRN
   IND NWWD THROUGH N CNTRL IL. LEAD SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME
   ERN IL MOVING INTO IROQUOIS COUNTY HAS A HISTORY OF LONG TRACK
   DAMAGING TORNADOES...BUT HAS RECENTLY SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND...AT
   LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS STORM INITIATED IN SERN KS AROUND 18Z...HAS
   PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS AND TRAVELED ALMOST 500 MILES. IT
   IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD AT AROUND 35 KT AND IF IT SURVIVES...WILL
   MOVE THROUGH NWRN IND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND OUT OF WW 77 AFTER
   06Z. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SRN MOST WARM FRONT. THE
   ATMOSPHERE IS LESS UNSTABLE WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO SRN LOWER MI.
   HOWEVER...A STRONG 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
   NEWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME...AND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY
   SHIFT NWD AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NRN IL LATER TONIGHT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...
   
   40048705 40228736 40708696 41458683 42258620 42228468
   40998509 40198614

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...CNTRL AND ERN MO...CNTRL AND NRN
   IL...EXTREME SERN IA...WRN WI AND NWRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 77...78...
   
   VALID 130530Z - 130730Z
   
   THREAT FOR STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH
   GREATEST THREAT FROM NRN AR NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN MO INTO CNTRL
   AND N CNTRL IL NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL ALSO REMAINS LIKELY
   WITH THESE STORMS. DAMAGING WIND APPEARS LIKELY WITH BOW ECHO STORM
   MOVING RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH NRN IL. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
   CHICAGO AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 07Z.
   
   LATE THIS EVENING A LINE OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS...SEVERAL OF WHICH
   ARE STILL PRODUCING TORNADOES...CONTINUE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
   SECTOR FROM PARTS OF N CNTRL IL SWWD THROUGH NERN...CNTRL AND SRN MO
   INTO EXTREME NRN AR. LATEST VWP OUT OF ST LOUIS SHOWS 70+ KT AROUND
   1 KM RESULTING IN A VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH WITH STORM
   RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 600 M2/S2...FAVORABLE FOR STRONG LOW
   LEVEL MESOCYCLONE AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...CONTRIBUTING TO AN INFLUX OF MOIST
   UNSTABLE AIR...AND SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS OVER NRN IL
   HAVE EVOLVED INTO LINES WITH DAMAGING WIND ALSO LIKELY. AN ORGANIZED
   LINE ABOUT 100 SM W OF CHICAGO IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 55 KT AND MAY
   BEGIN AFFECT THE WRN CHICAGO METRO AREA AROUND 0630Z. ANOTHER LINE
   HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER WEST FROM NERN OK NEWD INTO N CNTRL MO.
   DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LINE...BUT
   ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   35169653 37439483 39559323 42138770 39578793 38479023
   35199332

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA THROUGH EXTREME NWRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76...
   
   VALID 130552Z - 130715Z
   
   THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE
   HOURS FROM PARTS OF SERN IA INTO NWRN IL.
   
   RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN NEW STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
   ZONE N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN IS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
   40S. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR EXISTS
   TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL CONTINUING NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...
   
   42008976 40669247 40989307 42109186 42539051

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 130635Z - 130800Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP E OF WW/S 77 AND 78 BY 0800Z AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL
   LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 0625Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LONG-LIVED TORNADIC
   SUPERCELL OVER S-CNTRL MO /DOUGLAS AND OZARK COUNTIES/ MOVING
   250/45 KTS.  EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS STORM E OF WW 78 BETWEEN
   0730-0800Z.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND LOCAL VWP DATA INDICATE THAT
   ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES
   DOWNSTREAM OF PRESENT WW/S WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...50-60
   KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY...VERY STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2/.
   
   DESPITE SOME TENDENCY FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS
   WARM SECTOR...THIS STRONG SHEAR AND RESULTANT STORM-SCALE
   NON-HYDROSTATIC VERTICAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
   OVERCOME THIS INCREASING CAP WITH THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING
   THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...
   
   36659104 37579095 38059041 38348996 38598905 37698809
   36708820 36398911 36358993 36459050

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76...
   
   VALID 130747Z - 130845Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /NAMELY LARGE HAIL/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING.  WW 76
   WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NERN MO
   OR SERN IA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO SWRN WI LATER
   THIS MORNING.  ATTENDANT WARM FRONT IS CONCURRENTLY LIFTING NWD
   THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES...THOUGH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING
   OVER NERN IL INTO NRN IND MAY TEND TO SLOW IT/S RETREAT.
   
   ELEVATED TSTMS IN PROGRESS OVER ERN IA /FROM NW OF MLI TO 50 NE ALO/
   ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING AS NOSE OF 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATES NEWD INTO
   REGION...AND INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPES OF 500-1000
   J/KG/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...
   
   42749081 43339114 44159097 44378958 44268816 42888762
   42618802 42568972

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 130816Z - 130945Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
   CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 08Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW OVER
   FAR SERN IA WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NRN
   IL INTO FAR SWRN LOWER MI AND THEN MORE SEWD INTO NRN OH.  GRR RADAR
   IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO WITH ATTENDANT COMMA
   HEAD IS MOVING EWD ALONG OR JUST N OF WARM FRONT OVER VAN
   BUREN...BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES.  ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WERE
   ALSO OBSERVED MOVING NEWD INTO ST. JOSEPH AND BRANCH COUNTIES.
   
   LATEST SHORT-TERM RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
   CONTINUE NEWD INTO SWRN WI BY 12Z WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD INTO
   CNTRL LOWER MI.  WHILE AFOREMENTIONED...ONGOING TSTMS MAY TEND TO
   SLOW THE RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT...INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS AND
   STRONG WAA ALONG NOSE OF 60-70 KT SWLY LLJ SHOULD ALLOW IT TO
   STEADILY MOVE NWD.
   
   GIVEN THIS STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOIST AND THERMAL ADVECTION ABOVE NEAR
   SURFACE INVERSION N OF WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL
   LIKELY INCREASE OVER CNTRL LOWER MI THROUGH 10-11Z.  FARTHER S ALONG
   WARM FRONT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND NWD-DEVELOPING SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUING THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND
   SMALL-SCALE BOWS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
   
   41778432 42028559 42708636 43378627 43908533 43718349
   43358249 42428269 41778339

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0278
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 130844Z - 131015Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO DISCUSSION AREA
   EARLY THIS MORNING.  A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 0830Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED PRIMARY BAND OF
   FORCED CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NEAR FLP SWWD TO NERN TX
   /NEAR PRX/.  ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE
   RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FARTHER TO
   THE E...NW OF BVX AND JUST N OF HOT.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS
   CNTRL AND ERN AR REMAINS WARM AND MOIST THIS MORNING WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
   MOREOVER...WIND GUSTS REPORTED BY CURRENT METAR OBSERVATIONS FROM
   ELD AND LLQ NWD ARG AND JBR APPEAR COINCIDENT WITH 50-60 KT
   LLJ...SUGGESTING THAT SOME TURBULENT MIXING IS STILL OCCURRING
   THROUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER.  AS SUCH...THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT CAP IS
   NOT OVERLY STRONG AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE ISOLATED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.
   
   LATEST VWP FROM LIT INDICATES THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS REMAINS
   STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2 AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS.  WHEN COUPLED WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000
   J/KG...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED TORNADOES.  IT APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
   WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED AHEAD OF MAIN
   CONVECTIVE LINE.  HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OR LEWP STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
   LINE ITSELF.  ADDITIONALLY...STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   33079372 36389180 36418968 33019161

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL / CNTRL AND SRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 130919Z - 131045Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
   WW 77 WILL EXPIRE AT 10Z AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 0905Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A PRE-FRONTAL...
   BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NEAR BMI SWWD TO JUST E OF STL MOVING
   245-250/50 KTS.  EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
   WITHIN THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS AS IT
   CROSSED THE MS RIVER AND RAPIDLY MOVED EWD INTO CNTRL IL.  LATEST
   METAR DATA INDICATE GUSTY...S WINDS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION OVER
   SRN IL INTO CNTRL IND. THESE OBSERVATIONS APPEAR COINCIDENT WITH
   PRIMARY AXIS OF 60-70 KT SWLY LLJ...SUGGESTING THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER
   IS REMAINING TURBULENTLY MIXED...WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP.
   
   GIVEN THAT AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
   1000-1500 J/KG...AND STRONGLY SHEARED /0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2
   AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS/...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE
   SUPPORTIVE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   MOREOVER...OWING TO THE FAST STORM MOTIONS AND STRONG AMBIENT WIND
   FIELDS...THIS CONVECTIVE LINE WILL ALSO REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   40518874 40618478 38808483 38608880

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0280
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN IL / SWRN IND / WRN KY INTO WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131208Z - 131345Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEYOND 13Z /THE
   EXPIRATION OF WW 81/ ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  AN ADDITIONAL WW
   MAY BE NECESSARY TO REPLACE WW 81...WHICH MAY EXTEND SWD INTO WRN
   TN.
   
   AS OF 1150Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL
   LINE FROM SRN IL /NE OF MVN/ SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX.  MOST INTENSE
   PORTION OF THIS LINE APPEARS TO BE FROM SE OF SLO TO SE OF BVX WHERE
   SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS ARE BEING OBSERVED WITHIN
   LINE.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE MS RIVER NW OF
   DYR...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WRN KY.
   
   LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRE-FRONTAL
   CONVECTIVE BAND WILL REMAIN MOST ACTIVE FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES
   INTO WRN TN INTO MID MORNING.  DESPITE SOME DESTABILIZATION OF
   INFLOW AIR MASS...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG...WHICH WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED/BOWING PORTIONS OF SQUALL
   LINE. 
   
   WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED COMMA
   HEAD OR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...GIVEN THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...
   
   35559087 37198939 38508828 38718740 38218656 37308659
   36688697 35938797 35068906 34949024

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NW WI...WRN U.P. OF MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 131357Z - 131900Z
   
   A LARGE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LIFT NEWD THIS MORNING
   FROM SERN MN AND NW WI TOWARDS THE WRN U.P. OF MI. SNOWFALL RATES OF
   1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY WITH LOCAL AREAS UP TO 2 IN/HR IN
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
   
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING TO THE NW OF A
   STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN SW WI. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWD OVER LK
   MI BY 21Z. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH
   A STRONG AREA OF 700 TO 650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-MID LEVEL
   ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING SHOWED A DEFORMATION AXIS
   AROUND THIS LEVEL WITH NEARLY FULL SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC
   LAYER. BOTH 12Z RUC/06Z NAM-WRF MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LIFTING
   THE STRONG AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS TOWARD WRN U.P. OF MI AND LK
   SUPERIOR. 09Z SREF GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE RUC/NAM-WRF
   MODELS IN PRODUCING THE HEAVIEST QPF THIS MORNING FROM THE SERN TWIN
   CITIES METRO NEWD INTO WRN U.P. OF MI. THIS HEAVIEST QPF LINES UP
   REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BAND SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS...AND WILL
   RESULT IN 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
   MUCAPES FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE SNOW/SLEET TO
   FORM FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
   SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 IN/HR AS THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS LIFT
   NORTH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   44089462 44819422 45439309 46409117 46809017 47388868
   46538669 46128690 45688874 44269084 43749153 43559237
   43599401

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0902 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN AR/THE MO BOOTHEEL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 84...
   
   VALID 131502Z - 131600Z
   
   SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED ACROSS WW. STRONGEST STORMS
   CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO WW 86 OVER WRN TN.
   
   BROKEN LINE OF GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING EWD OUT OF
   WW -- INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TN AND ADJACENT NWRN MS.  STRONGEST
   STORMS STILL WITHIN WW ARE APPROACHING THE MS RIVER W AND NW OF
   MEM...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 86 OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE MINIMAL INSTABILITY
   SWD ACROSS W CENTRAL AND NWRN MS...AND MORNING JAN RAOB REVEALED A
   SUBSTANTIAL CAP JUST BELOW 700 MB.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
   SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE SEVERE THREAT
   RE-EVOLVES.  THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW WW 84 TO EXPIRE...AND WILL
   MONITOR DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   36459018 36508952 36138930 33019106 32939246 34719137

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0283
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0939 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI/NWRN OH/NRN IN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 83...85...
   
   VALID 131539Z - 131645Z
   
   NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY REPLACING WW 83 WHICH
   EXPIRES AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
   
   LIMITED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ATTM ACROSS NWRN OH ATTM...WHERE
   EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXISTS.  HOWEVER...SOME
   CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT -- ACROSS NWRN IN AND SWRN LOWER MI...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORM
   REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  WITH VERY STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE REGION...SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS
   SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE. THEREFORE...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED
   SHORTLY...COVERING SRN LOWER MI AND SWD INTO NWRN OH/NRN INDIANA.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
   
   43678471 43508276 42118268 39818375 39638561 40018710
   43308534

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS INTO NORTHERN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 131836Z - 132030Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN AL.
   PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR
   OR SO.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVING
   EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TN AND NORTHWEST MS AT 1830Z. WHILE THESE
   TSTMS HAVE REMAINED MODEST THUS FAR...SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND
   COOLING ALOFT/LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY INSTABILITY FEED WILL LIKELY
   LEAD TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE VIGOR WITH TIME. SPECIAL 18Z RAOB FROM
   JACKSON MS DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE COOLING/MOISTENING BETWEEN 700-900
   MB SINCE 12Z...ALTHOUGH WEAK CINH/WARM LAYER ABOVE 700 MB REMAINS.
   
   WITH INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPMENT OF
   500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...STRONG WARM SECTOR VERTICAL /NAMELY SPEED/
   SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS AND/OR EVOLUTION OF LINE-EMBEDDED LEWPS...ALTHOUGH LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   36328791 36538642 36408546 35568527 32648875 32519008
   32889053 33909009 34818939 35578871

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN INDIANA/CENTRAL KY/OH/ PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...
   
   VALID 132013Z - 132145Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONT --
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND INTO WRN OH -- OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
   2 HOURS.
   
   THOUGH INITIAL CONVECTION CLUSTER NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY/ERN
   OH/WRN PA HAS LEFT A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE
   AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE AN AXIS OF
   MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SPREADING NWD ACROSS KY INTO WRN OH
   BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTION/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  THIS COINCIDES
   WITH CONVECTIVE INCREASE INDICATED BY LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM WRN
   TN NNEWD TO THE OH RIVER.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH A
   CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND
   FIELD. RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUGGESTS
   THAT DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
   
   E OF WATCH -- INTO CENTRAL AND ERN PA...LESS CLOUDINESS HAS ALLOWED
   SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE
   LOW TO MID 70S AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE NOW
   INDICATED.  SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG LEADING
   EDGE OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
   PA...WHICH MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE E OF WW 88.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...
   
   36618726 39858468 42028262 41937953 42387712 42037518
   39877682 39457973 38658140 36728465

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0286
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN LOWER MI/NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 87...
   
   VALID 132019Z - 132115Z
   
   NARROW AXIS OF SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR
   OR SO ACROSS LOWER MI...AND CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO NWRN PORTIONS
   OF WW 88 ACROSS OH.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS
   SERN LOWER MI/FAR NWRN OH ATTM....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB
   REGION.  THOUGH STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LK HURON/INTO SRN ONTARIO
   OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- INCLUDING
   ISOLATED TORNADOES -- HAS INCREASED ACROSS THIS NARROW CORRIDOR.
   
   FURTHER S...CONVECTION REMAINS WEAKER...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AS IT
   MOVES ACROSS NWRN OH/INTO WW 88 OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...
   
   43948310 43708270 42748271 40998350 40878471 42878344

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS/EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132132Z - 132300Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/EASTERN LA
   INTO SOUTHWEST AL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 89...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
   
   SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 89 ACROSS MS/AL...INCREASING AREAL TSTM
   COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
   MS/EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WITH
   POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH A SUFFICIENTLY
   FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS...
   CONFIDENCE/LIKLIHOOD OF SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES WITH SOUTHWARD
   EXTENT...LARGELY OWING TO MILDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/WEAKER MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES VIA SOUTH PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER JET. GIVEN
   EXPECTED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   32199003 32448840 32288740 32048706 31798714 30928796
   30268952 30359116 31579086

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/EASTERN MS AND EASTERN/MIDDLE TN INTO
   NORTHERN/WESTERN AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89...
   
   VALID 132159Z - 132330Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 89 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN MS AND
   MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN AL. POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.
   
   SEVERAL STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED PERSISTENT ROTATION FROM NORTHEAST MS
   INTO MIDDLE TN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...INCLUDING TORNADO REPORTS
   WITH SUPERCELL THAT MOVED THROUGH WEBSTER COUNTY MS.
   MESOANALYSIS SUPPORTED BY RUC SOUNDINGS/18Z JACKSON RAOB INDICATIVE
   OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-800
   J/KG NOW EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TN. WITH MODEST
   INSTABILITY/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME...SPEED SHEAR IN THE
   LOWEST 1-2 KM HAS PROVED SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES THIS
   AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND OKOLONA MS PROFILER SUGGEST
   150-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH...FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED TORNADO POTENTIAL
   VIA DISTINCT SUPERCELLS AND/OR DEVELOPING LEWPS. WILL MONITOR FOR AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN TN.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   35708809 36498713 36538476 36418414 35688430 34488582
   33208677 32858752 32848838 32868909 33078939 33688953

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MS/NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA AND
   MIDDLE/EASTERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89...90...
   
   VALID 132341Z - 140045Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 89 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z ACROSS MIDDLE TN/EASTERN MS
   INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN AL...TORNADO WATCH 90 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z
   ACROSS EASTERN TN. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
   OF NORTHERN AL MAY BE NEEDED BY 00Z. THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   LOW/MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
   HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST AL INTO MIDDLE TN VIA VOLUMETRIC
   RADAR DATA...WITH AS MANY AS 10 REPORTS OF TORNADO AND/OR WIND
   DAMAGE AS OF 2330Z. SIMILAR SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS...INTO EASTERN TN/WW 90...AND NORTHEAST AL/NORTHWEST
   GA WHERE AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SOON. EVEN WITH
   MODEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL ROTATION/TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH AREA WSR-88D VWPS INDICATIVE OF 150-200
   MS/S2 OR GREATER 0-1 KM SRH...MAXIMIZED ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TN.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   35138813 36448673 36448452 36228399 35078425 34248477
   33128597 32758743 32698827 32758936 33058956 33428922

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0609 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OH  AND NWRN
   PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...
   
   VALID 140009Z - 140145Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW
   88 NEXT FEW HOURS. A MORE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS E OF WW 88. A
   WW E OF THE CURRENT WATCH WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS
   UNEXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OCCURS.
   
   EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN OH SWWD THROUGH
   WRN KY...WRN TN AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE WARM SECTOR E OF THIS
   BOUNDARY IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES AND AN
   AXIS OF MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
   AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS KY INTO OH. INSTABILITY IS MORE
   LIMITED WITH EWD EXTENT INTO PA AND WV...WHERE TEMPERATURES AND
   DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER. STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS INCLUDING A STRONG SWLY
   LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR
   SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN THE
   PRIMARY THREATS NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   
   36718472 37218600 41368191 41437976 37788214

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MS/NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA AND
   MIDDLE/EASTERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89...90...91...
   
   VALID 140127Z - 140300Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 89 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
   MS/NORTHWEST AL/MIDDLE TN...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. TORNADO WATCH 90
   CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z ACROSS EASTERN TN. TORNADO WATCH 91 CONTINUES
   UNTIL 05Z ACROSS NORTHEAST AL/NORTHWEST GA.
   
   IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING SEVERE
   THREAT PAST THE 02Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH
   89...NAMELY FROM EASTERN CENTRAL MS INTO WESTERN AL. BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLING WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT THIS
   EVENING...BUT AMPLE SOUTHWESTLY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FEED PER 00Z
   JAN/LIX RAOBS SHOULD MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   FURTHER EAST ACROSS TORNADO WATCHES 90/91...LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELDS IN
   PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR ISOLD
   TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
   EASTERN TN/NORTHEAST AL INTO NORTHWEST GA. STORMS ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AL HAVE EXHIBITED AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
   ROTATION WITH HISTORY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
   
   35058760 36388605 36488466 36218403 35078425 34248477
   32928582 32538648 32168735 32058880 33148872 33588850