"STRANDED AND ISOLATED!!"

#41 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 8:21 pm

Guess I shouldn't mention those 6-10' snowdepths I've seen in the Sierra and Wasatch.

Steve

plainsman · #42 Postby **plainsman** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:04 pm

and its crazy to think that people who dont know too much about the weather or jealous people like that one guy from seattle on here thinks arizona and new mexico are ''warm and get no snow' and are just deserts'' because there pretty far south..lol..... they think az and nm are just deserts..lol... ya tell that to the people in the mountains of arizona and new mexico who just got hit with 40-50 inches of snow.... lol.... its the same stereotype for the panhandle of Texas for that matter.... last yr. Amarillo,Texas had two 1 foot blizzards back to back in mid march! :eek:

TT-SEA · #43 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:27 am

What the hell??

Plainsman... you are generalizing now.

I lived in the Southwest for 12 years. I know the topography and the climate zones of the region very well.

I KNOW THAT DENNIS DOES NOT LIVE IN A DESERT.

But his area is surrounded by desert and is subjected to the feast or famine nature of the desert.

Just a fact.

plainsman · #44 Postby **plainsman** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:30 pm

ya i wasnt talking about you.. i misworded some things.... but more so people who know nothing about the weather ya know at all.. kinda generally think ya know arizona and new mexico are deserts ya know california is always hot ya know those are kinda false stereotypes just like people who dont know much about the weather think snow is uncommon in texas.. and its not .... the panhandle is part of Texas too.. and the panhandle gets dumped with snow every yr.. all those areas have alot of elevation and surrounding mountains which makes a huge difference in the cold and the amount of snow... i know you know about the weather ...i was talking about people who know nothing at all ya know who nver check the weather and who dont get on this site.....

Miss Mary · #45 Postby **Miss Mary** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:05 pm

Lordy, I am so very happy for you Dennis. I just can't stand it......happy shoveling!

#46 Postby **Pburgh** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:23 pm

Well I had to come up here to see Dennis' pictures. Wow, that's a lot of snow. Dennis, you stay safe over there.

The worst snowstorm I can remember was in Nov. of 1950. We lived in the basement of our home while Dad finished building the upstairs. The snow was only about 30" deep but it drifted over the doors and windows. Dad had to crawl out the skylight and dig us out.

Dennis, you pictures are amazing.

#47 Postby **azskyman** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:21 pm

Measured 27" on the level from two storms in Illinois back in January 1979. and that had a water equivalent of over 3". I remember to this day trying to get a good core sample so I could get that WE reading. Most likely, the water equivalent values of mountain snows are somewhat less, but this was a pretty widespread and wet storm.

azsnowman · #48 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 6:22 pm

Hmmmmm.......I've heard THIS before, like LAST weekend and look what happened! :ggreen:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
706 AM MST TUE MAR 14 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-150700-
BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN COCONINO CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN NAVAJO CO-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF 264-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS 264 NORTH-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
706 AM MST TUE MAR 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR...APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
COMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. KEEP INFORMED
THIS WEEK FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.

azsnowman · #49 Postby **azsnowman** » Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:09 am

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AZ OVER THE WEEKEND. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS REMAIN...AS WELL AS SOME RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES...BUT THESE ARE MOSTLY MINOR. IT IS LIKELY THAT NRN AZ WILL GET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO BELOW 5000 FEET. IT IS ALSO LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS TO PINPOINT THESE AREAS. FOR NOW...WILL UPDATE HWO (HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK) TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AND SNOWY WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. JJ

#50 Postby **azskyman** » Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:46 am

Good morning Dennis. Yes, another round of precipitation will be welcome for all of us before the predictable drying winds and rising temperatures of spring take control once again. Any moisture is good moisture.

And what a treat from here on the Valley floor to see snowcapped mountains north of us early this week. Perhaps we'll see something similar, although not nearly so dramatic nor down to 2000 feet, over the weekend.

azsnowman · #51 Postby **azsnowman** » Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:46 pm

Update.....another 12" possible :ggreen:

Now.....the 48+" we HAD, it's NOW down to 15" in most places, temps have been in the 50's the past 2 days and even WARMER tomorrow before we get slammed AGAIN!

http://www.wrh.nooa.gov/fgz

OVER THE WEEKEND A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA ALONG WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CURRENT MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A SNOW LEVEL OF 5000-6000 FEET ON SATURDAY BUT BY SUNDAY THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO 3000-4000 FEET. THIS STORM WILL BE QUICKER MOVING THAN THE STORM LAST WEEKEND BUT STILL WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...COCONINO PLATEAU AND KAIBAB PLATEAU OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MCCOLLUM

azsnowman · #52 Postby **azsnowman** » Thu Mar 16, 2006 8:49 am

WELL........this is almost DISTURBING :ggreen:

AND.....I just heard Marshall Sheese (sp) on TWC say, and I qoute, "This system has the potential of being as large as last weeks AND there's another low pressure that COULD possibly JOIN this one *points to this weekends system* and make for ONE HUGE system!"........

*faints*

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

A DEEP AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS JET STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. CARVING OUT A TROUGH. THIS FIRST WAVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND CUT OFF TO OUR WEST FOR LATE SATURDAY...THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PLACE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA UNDER STRONG UPWARD FORCING...ALONG WITH UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWARD. WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING BELOW 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN MANY AREAS...INCLUDING THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MTNS AND YAVAPAI CO MTNS. WILL UPDATE HWO (HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK) TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AND SNOWY WEEKEND. BEYOND MONDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT AS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO LOW POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. JJ

azsnowman · #53 Postby **azsnowman** » Thu Mar 16, 2006 11:48 am

Think this pretty much sums it up :ggreen:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST THU MAR 16 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-170700-
BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN COCONINO CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN NAVAJO CO-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF 264-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS 264 NORTH-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
700 AM MST THU MAR 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR...APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE COMING
WEEKEND. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE THE PERIOD OF GREATEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FEET BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...SOME AREAS ABOVE 4500 FEET ARE LIKELY TO SEE IN EXCESS OF
6 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH CERTAIN LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET RECEIVING
A FOOT OR MORE BY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL..
THIS STORM WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM. UPDATES ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

azsnowman · #54 Postby **azsnowman** » Thu Mar 16, 2006 12:58 pm

Here it COMES :ggreen:

Website · #55 Postby **Brent** » Thu Mar 16, 2006 2:06 pm

WOW Dennis. Guess your making up for all that snow you didn't get the past 3 months aren't ya?

azsnowman · #56 Postby **azsnowman** » Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:49 pm

"UH OH!"

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS HAS THE TROF AXIS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THEN ALONG A LINE FROM PAGE TO PRESCOTT AT SUNRISE SUNDAY. THIS POSITION PUTS THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS AND THE GFS CRANKS OUT OVER 1 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP IN THIS AREA FROM SUNSET SATURDAY TO SUNSET SUNDAY. SO ONCE AGAIN IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE SHOW LOW, PINETOP, YOUNG, AND CARRIZO AREAS COULD SEE SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL. THERE IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK OUT NOW HIGHLIGHTING THIS TIME PERIOD.

azsnowman · #57 Postby **azsnowman** » Thu Mar 16, 2006 5:05 pm

Heeeeeeeeeere it is :ggreen:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST THU MAR 16 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-170700-
BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN COCONINO CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN NAVAJO CO-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF 264-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS 264 NORTH-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
230 PM MST THU MAR 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR...APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADY PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

AT THIS TIME...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE
THE PERIOD OF GREATEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 3000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING 10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO AREAS ABOVE 6000
FEET...6 TO 12 INCHES TO AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET AND UP TO
4 INCHES TO AREAS BELOW 4000 FEET. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.. THIS STORM WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM. UPDATES ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

JenyEliza · #58 Postby **JenyEliza** » Thu Mar 16, 2006 5:32 pm

Enjoy your snow, snowman!

PTrackerLA · #59 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Mar 16, 2006 8:21 pm

After these storms you'll probably end up with most of your seasonal snowfall deficit made up! Enjoy it, y'all deserve it.

azsnowman · #60 Postby **azsnowman** » Fri Mar 17, 2006 7:41 am

PTrackerLA wrote:After these storms you'll probably end up with most of your seasonal snowfall deficit made up! Enjoy it, y'all deserve it.

I don't understand, well, yes I do, I just thought that this monster storm we had would help SOME but according to NOAA and the rest, it virtually did NOTHING :?:

http://www.azcentral.com

Forecasters expect wet weekend
But rain still not enough to offset dry conditions

Michael Clancy
The Arizona Republic
Mar. 17, 2006 12:00 AM

More rain and more snow are likely this weekend around Arizona, the second wet weekend in a row after at least 20 weekends without a drop.

A storm off the Pacific Ocean likely will be warmer but only half of the size of last weekend's soaker, the National Weather Service says. Dennis Sturm, a forecaster for the Phoenix office, says chances of rain for the Phoenix area on Saturday and Sunday are 50-50.

In Flagstaff and the northern part of the state, the possibility of snow rises to 60 percent for Saturday. advertisement

While state weather watchers gladly will accept all the precipitation we can get, the storms will have little or no effect on the upcoming fire season.

The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration joined the National Interagency Fire Center on Thursday to release the NOAA's Spring Outlook and the NIFC's Wildland Fire Potential Outlook.

As expected, neither one of them looks good for the state.

The weather forecasters are calling for a warmer spring with average rainfall, and fire officials are expecting a worse-than-average fire season.

"Rain and snow arrived too late to offset the impacts from months of record dry weather across the Southwest, resulting in the continuing potential for a dangerous fire season," said David L. Johnson, director of the NOAA National Weather Service.

Weak La Niña conditions this winter contributed to significant drought in the Southwest, including much of Arizona. April, May and June are the three driest months of the year here, with rain totaling about a quarter of an inch on average.

Ed O'Lenic, head of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, said that means the drought is likely to persist or even worsen until monsoon season arrives in the summer.

Nearly unprecedented dry weather, unseasonably high temperatures and gusty winds have already contributed to more than 13,000 wildfires nationwide since Jan. 1, scorching almost a million acres. In Arizona, several smaller fires have erupted, far earlier than expected.

"STRANDED AND ISOLATED!!"

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