Central Southern Indian Ocean: BoM Outlook

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P.K.
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Central Southern Indian Ocean: BoM Outlook

#1 Postby P.K. » Tue Mar 14, 2006 6:46 pm

IDW10900
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:15pm WST on Tuesday the 14th of March 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

There are currently no significant tropical lows evident in the region.

A weak tropical low, 1005hPa, located in the vicinity of 17S 114E at noon WST is
likely to move to the west in the next few days passing west of 110E on
Wednesday. Although squally conditions are likely on the western side of the
low, it is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the short term but
will be monitored for possible development later in the week.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Wednesday : low
Thursday : low
Friday : moderate

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **
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Coredesat

#2 Postby Coredesat » Tue Mar 14, 2006 8:28 pm

Image

There's some really deep convection there - it just needs to get a little better organized.
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Coredesat

#3 Postby Coredesat » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:09 pm

15/0201 UTC 15.6S 110.8E T1.5/1.5 93S
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#4 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:30 pm

Another wait and see storm.
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#5 Postby P.K. » Wed Mar 15, 2006 4:31 am

IDW10900

UPDATED
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:21pm WST on Wednesday the 15th of March 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A weak tropical low, 1001hPa, located in the vicinity of 16S 111E at noon WST on
Wednesday, is likely to move to the west in the next few days passing west of
110E tonight. Squally conditions are likely on the western side of the low. The
likelihood of the low developing into a tropical cyclone improves in the next
few days.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Thursday : moderate
Friday : moderate
Saturday : high

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **
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Coredesat

#6 Postby Coredesat » Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:50 am

15/0900 UTC 15.2S 110.3E T1.5/1.5 93S

Image

NRL has upped the winds to 20 kt.
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Coredesat

#7 Postby Coredesat » Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:50 am

15/0900 UTC 15.2S 110.3E T1.5/1.5 93S

Image

NRL has upped the winds to 20 kt.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:52 am

Looking good...Lets see if we can get a big one out of it :cheesy:
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Coredesat

#9 Postby Coredesat » Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:27 pm

Image

Starting to look a little sheared.
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#10 Postby P.K. » Thu Mar 16, 2006 6:19 am

IDW10900
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:06pm WST on Thursday the 16th of March 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A weak tropical low, 1002hPa, was located in the vicinity of 16S 109E at noon
WST on Thursday. Squally conditions are likely on the western side of the low.
There is a period on Saturday when the likelihood of the low developing into a
tropical cyclone improves but otherwise the chances of further development is
considered low.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Friday : low
Saturday : moderate
Sunday : low

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **
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