NWS MIA Confirms a Strong Bermuda High, a Precursor?
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gatorcane
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I'm looking at long-range forecasts for Florida and there may be some spotty 90s this weekend with upper 80s plentiful over central South Florida (away from the water) as the ridge really starts to build in and estabilish itself....
man it's been a while since I've seen such a longwave pattern maintain through winter and now into March. Odds are it should be replaced by some troughiness soon...but I am doubting it as each day passes with the same forecast
man it's been a while since I've seen such a longwave pattern maintain through winter and now into March. Odds are it should be replaced by some troughiness soon...but I am doubting it as each day passes with the same forecast
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MiamiensisWx
000
FLUS42 KMFL 160023
HWOMFL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
723 PM EST WED MAR 15 2006
FLZ063-066>075-161100-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
723 PM EST WED MAR 15 2006
...GULF STREAM SEAS UP TO 9 FEET TONIGHT...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
WAVES: GULF STREAM SEAS OF UP TO 9 FEET ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
$$
DG
FLUS42 KMFL 160023
HWOMFL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
723 PM EST WED MAR 15 2006
FLZ063-066>075-161100-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
723 PM EST WED MAR 15 2006
...GULF STREAM SEAS UP TO 9 FEET TONIGHT...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
WAVES: GULF STREAM SEAS OF UP TO 9 FEET ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
$$
DG
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Jim Cantore
boca wrote:I think it will be a repeat of the 1998 fire season.
We've already gotten wildfires in the FL Panhandle and southwest Alabama, and it's probably only going to get worse from here on out. In timber areas, there's just so much downed wood from the hurricanes of the past couple of years, and when it gets dried out, it burns very quickly and easily.
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gatorcane
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We've already gotten wildfires in the FL Panhandle and southwest Alabama, and it's probably only going to get worse from here on out. In timber areas, there's just so much downed wood from the hurricanes of the past couple of years, and when it gets dried out, it burns very quickly and easily.
Already fires are happening?
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MiamiensisWx
000
FLUS42 KMFL 161207
HWOMFL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006
FLZ063-066>075-170830-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
700 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC COAST...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
RIP CURRENTS: WINDS OVER THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE
COASTS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
COMBINED WITH LOW TIDES IN THE AFTERNOON, THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
$$
FLUS42 KMFL 161207
HWOMFL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006
FLZ063-066>075-170830-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
700 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC COAST...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
RIP CURRENTS: WINDS OVER THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE
COASTS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
COMBINED WITH LOW TIDES IN THE AFTERNOON, THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
$$
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MiamiensisWx
This could offer some clues... NOAA is expecting drier and warmer than normal conditions through June for Florida and the southeastern U.S. right now...
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2595.htm
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2595.htm
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MiamiensisWx
Here is the latest from the Miami NWS...
.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TO JUST NORTH OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER EASTERN U.S. AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH
WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT (ALBEIT WEAK) THROUGH OUR COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY BREEZY AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE IT DEEPENS
REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUE. GFS BRINGS ASSOCIATED
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME TUE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAT THE RESENT FRONTS WE HAVE HAD WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) COOLING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKING WEEK. STILL WE KNOW MODELS TEND TO
FLIP BACK AND FORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SO WILL
NOT BE SURPRISE IF THIS SCENARIO CHANGES COMPLETELY BY TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
DETERIORATE ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM AS WINDS BECOME NORTH 10
TO 15 KNOTS. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS WILL
VEER QUICKLY TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TO JUST NORTH OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER EASTERN U.S. AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH
WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT (ALBEIT WEAK) THROUGH OUR COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY BREEZY AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE IT DEEPENS
REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUE. GFS BRINGS ASSOCIATED
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME TUE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAT THE RESENT FRONTS WE HAVE HAD WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) COOLING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKING WEEK. STILL WE KNOW MODELS TEND TO
FLIP BACK AND FORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SO WILL
NOT BE SURPRISE IF THIS SCENARIO CHANGES COMPLETELY BY TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
DETERIORATE ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM AS WINDS BECOME NORTH 10
TO 15 KNOTS. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS WILL
VEER QUICKLY TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
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http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/app ... 60341/1006
Torched teddybear sparks wildfire:
"Children who used lighter fluid to torch a stuffed teddy bear accidentally started a wildfire that threatened homes near Holley-Navarre, fire officials said Wednesday, and their parents will be billed for the cost.
Wind-driven flames scorched 12 acres in the Lighthouse Pointe neighborhood Tuesday, racing to within 20 feet of homes and forcing firefighters to flatten fences to reach the flames. Downed timber and debris from hurricanes, soggy wetlands soil and windy, dry conditions slowed fire-suppression efforts."
There was also a fire near Lillian, AL a week or two back that the firefighters had more of a problem containing.
Torched teddybear sparks wildfire:
"Children who used lighter fluid to torch a stuffed teddy bear accidentally started a wildfire that threatened homes near Holley-Navarre, fire officials said Wednesday, and their parents will be billed for the cost.
Wind-driven flames scorched 12 acres in the Lighthouse Pointe neighborhood Tuesday, racing to within 20 feet of homes and forcing firefighters to flatten fences to reach the flames. Downed timber and debris from hurricanes, soggy wetlands soil and windy, dry conditions slowed fire-suppression efforts."
There was also a fire near Lillian, AL a week or two back that the firefighters had more of a problem containing.
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Another Florabama wilffire:
http://www.weartv.com/news/Stories/marc ... fire.shtml
" Firefighters are battling a one-hundred acre wildfire near the Alabama-Florida state line.
Alabama Forestry officials said Friday afternoon, no homes are threatened, but the fire in the Styx River area could send smoke over Interstate 10, possibly interfering with traffic.
Investigators and fire suppression units, including tractor plows and aircraft, are on the scene with more help on the way. "
http://www.weartv.com/news/Stories/marc ... fire.shtml
" Firefighters are battling a one-hundred acre wildfire near the Alabama-Florida state line.
Alabama Forestry officials said Friday afternoon, no homes are threatened, but the fire in the Styx River area could send smoke over Interstate 10, possibly interfering with traffic.
Investigators and fire suppression units, including tractor plows and aircraft, are on the scene with more help on the way. "
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gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23694
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Latest NWS Discussion...
Ridge is not budging....
.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IN NORTH FLORIDA STILL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
WHAT IS LEFT OF IT BY TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE NORTH OF THE LAKE.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTH ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST LAST THE LAST SYSTEM AND BE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT BACK TO OUR ZONES BY
WEDNESDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY UNDER OUR BIG UPPER
RIDGE. NOT THAT STRONG OF A FRONT SO CHANCES OF RAIN WILL REMAIN
LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE OVER IT AND GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THIS UPPER WAVE MAY
BE AS WELL AS ITS TIMING SO WILL STILL LEAVE THE PROBABILITIES
RELATIVELY LOW AND SPREAD THE CHANCE OF RAIN OUT OVER A LONGER
PERIOD UNTIL WE SEE JUST HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS SETTING UP AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
Ridge is not budging....
.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IN NORTH FLORIDA STILL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
WHAT IS LEFT OF IT BY TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE NORTH OF THE LAKE.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTH ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST LAST THE LAST SYSTEM AND BE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT BACK TO OUR ZONES BY
WEDNESDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY UNDER OUR BIG UPPER
RIDGE. NOT THAT STRONG OF A FRONT SO CHANCES OF RAIN WILL REMAIN
LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE OVER IT AND GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THIS UPPER WAVE MAY
BE AS WELL AS ITS TIMING SO WILL STILL LEAVE THE PROBABILITIES
RELATIVELY LOW AND SPREAD THE CHANCE OF RAIN OUT OVER A LONGER
PERIOD UNTIL WE SEE JUST HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS SETTING UP AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
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gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23694
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Here is what the NWS Mia says about Bermuda high now and the connection with how strong it will be during hurricane season:
Chris,
Based on my observations and those of a couple of our forecasters, this winter's pattern has been quite transient (lack of persistence of one
main feature - high or low). The persistent ridge described in the
discussion from March 11th is more representative of what we've seen in
the shorter term, basically the last 2 weeks - however I would argue
that even this hasn't really persisted yet. It is quite possible that
we will get into more of a persistent ridge as we get deeper into
spring, especially with La Niña (albeit a weak one) in place.
Correlation of a persistent spring Bermuda high with the same pattern
throughout the summer/fall is not very high. In other words, there's
no guarantee that a strong Bermuda high in the spring will persist through
the hurricane season. For example, last year we had a wetter than
normal May at both Miami and West Palm Beach, indicative of a transient
or even trough pattern, yet we still had tropical cyclones affect South
Florida. We also had an extremely wet June area-wide, which again
goes against the persistent ridge theory.
In short, my answer is that there is no well-established correlation
between patterns observed in the spring and patterns observed in the
subsequent hurricane season. It's entirely possible that we could end
up with a ridge all summer, it's also entirely possible that we have
more transient features. Even in persistent patterns, small breaks
can occur which can last 1-2 weeks at a time which can affect hurricane
tracks. Charley in August 2004 was a classic example where a strong
trough more reminiscent of early fall moved into the Gulf and steered
the hurricane north and northeast into Florida which is quite rare for August. That summer was otherwise generally characterized by a ridge over the Atlantic.
Hope this answers your question.
Chris,
Based on my observations and those of a couple of our forecasters, this winter's pattern has been quite transient (lack of persistence of one
main feature - high or low). The persistent ridge described in the
discussion from March 11th is more representative of what we've seen in
the shorter term, basically the last 2 weeks - however I would argue
that even this hasn't really persisted yet. It is quite possible that
we will get into more of a persistent ridge as we get deeper into
spring, especially with La Niña (albeit a weak one) in place.
Correlation of a persistent spring Bermuda high with the same pattern
throughout the summer/fall is not very high. In other words, there's
no guarantee that a strong Bermuda high in the spring will persist through
the hurricane season. For example, last year we had a wetter than
normal May at both Miami and West Palm Beach, indicative of a transient
or even trough pattern, yet we still had tropical cyclones affect South
Florida. We also had an extremely wet June area-wide, which again
goes against the persistent ridge theory.
In short, my answer is that there is no well-established correlation
between patterns observed in the spring and patterns observed in the
subsequent hurricane season. It's entirely possible that we could end
up with a ridge all summer, it's also entirely possible that we have
more transient features. Even in persistent patterns, small breaks
can occur which can last 1-2 weeks at a time which can affect hurricane
tracks. Charley in August 2004 was a classic example where a strong
trough more reminiscent of early fall moved into the Gulf and steered
the hurricane north and northeast into Florida which is quite rare for August. That summer was otherwise generally characterized by a ridge over the Atlantic.
Hope this answers your question.
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I don't know of any scientific study that correlates spring ridge conditions with tracks later in the year. Mr. Lushine of NWS MIA tried to use May rainfall as a proxy for later year landfalls, but that really has mixed results. It is especially doubtful given how active Florida has been in the past couple of years despite both wet and dry Mays. I have a suspicion that the reason that dry/strong ridge years in the spring might have more landfalls is more due to La Nina that anything else (which dries out Florida considerably).
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