SW Pacific: Severe TC Larry (Ex TD 15)

[P.K.]

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.
Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Wednesday the 15th of March 2006

At noon, Wednesday 15/03/2006, a 1003 hPa tropical low was centred well out in
the Coral Sea near 12S 158E and slow moving. The low has a moderate chance of
developing into a tropical cyclone during the next few days. At the present
time, the low is not influencing Queensland's weather.

Tropical Cyclone outlooks issued by Brisbane are available on
Weather By Fax 190 293 5278 at a cost of $1.38 per minute [GST incl] and
can also be accessed through the Bureau's Home Page http://www.bom.gov.au.

Please note that the Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre issues Tropical
Cyclone Outlooks that cover the Gulf of Carpentaria. See
http:/www.bom.gov.au/weather/nt/cyclone/ or to subscribe to this service
call Darwin 08 8920 3820.

[P.K.]

IDQ20008
SECURITE
1 CORRECTED
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0745 UTC 16 March 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A tropical low with central pressure about 1000 hectopascals centred at
160600UTC near 13.9S 158.4E and moving slowly south. Position fair. The low is
slowly deepening and likely to become a tropical cyclone within 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100nm of the low centre in southern quadrants and within 50nm in northern
quadrants.

FORECAST
Forecast position
near 14.6S 158.2E at 161800UTC and
near 15.2S 157.4E at 170600UTC.
Winds increasing to 34 to 40 knots within the forecast area during the next
24 hours.


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1237 UTC 16 March 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A tropical low with central pressure 1000 hectopascals centred at 161200UTC near
13.5S 159.5E and moving slowly southeast. Position poor. The low is slowly
deepening and likely to become a tropical cyclone within 24 hours. Low expected
to drift further SE and then turn SW.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100nm of the low centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds increasing to 34 to 40 knots within the forecast area during the
next 24 hours.

Forecast positions
Near 15.0S 160.0E at 170000UTC and
Near 15.2S 159.5E at 171200UTC.


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

16/1333 UTC 12.9S 159.3E T1.5/1.5 94P

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S
159.8E HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 13.4S 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTH OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH A 160730Z QUIKSCAT
PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, A 160934z TRMM
MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES NEW CONVECTION WRAPPING INWARD TOWARD A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS SUPERPOSED BY AN AREA OF FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. GIVEN THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND
APPARENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks quite good above!

[MiamiensisWx]

Hmm... could two systems be forming?

[SouthFloridawx]

twins?

[P.K.]

Does seem to be quite active down there at the moment.

1800MetArea XIV forecast from the FMS:

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Mar 171800 UTC.

DEPRESSION 14F [1004 HPA] NEAR 23S 170.5E MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS
AND WEAKENING. CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

DEEPENING TROPICAL LOW [1000HPA] NEAR 13.3S 159.5E NEAR STATIONARY.
IN ADDITION TO GALE WARNING 001, IN THE AREA EAST OF 160E EXPECT
CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD3 [1004 HPA] NEAR 13.5S 180 MOVING
WESTSOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. CLOCKWISE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0021 UTC 17 March 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A tropical low with central pressure 1000 hectopascals centred at 170000UTC near
14.2S 160.0E and was near stationary. Position fair. The low is slowly deepening
and likely to become a tropical cyclone within 12 to 24 hours. The low is
expected to begin to move west. A trough extends west of the low centre out to
300 nautical miles.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100nm of the low centre, and north of and within 60 nautical miles of the
trough.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds increasing to 34 to 40 knots around the low, and south west
winds 35 knots near the trough.

Forecast positions
Near 14.2S 158.9E at 171200UTC and
Near 14.5S 157.1E at 180000UTC.


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 16/2304 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14S 160E AT 162100UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON GMS/VIS, RECENT QUIKSCAT AND
SSMI PASSES. SST NEAR 29C.

PULSATING CONVECTION IS THE PROMINENT FEATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
RESPONDS TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS LOCATED NEAR
155E WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION CONVECTION IS LOCATED JUST EAST
OF 160E. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES SUGGEST THE LLCC IS NEAR 14S 160E. 15F
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE 250HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT AREA.
CIMMS INDICATES THAT 15F IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MINIMAL
SHEAR. GLOBALS [ECMWF, UKGC, GF, NOGAPS] CONCUR AND DEEPEN THE SYSTEM
AS THEY STEER IT WESTWARDS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST.
POTENTIAL FOR 15F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yes another good looking system!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets see how strong this thing gets!!! Wahooo

[Coredesat]

It's suddenly not looking so good:

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like some possible upper-level shear or dry air intrusion...

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0729 UTC 17 March 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A tropical low with central pressure 998 hectopascals centred at 170600UTC near
15.2S 159.5E and was moving SW at 10 knots. Position good. The low is slowly
deepening and likely to become a tropical cyclone within 12 to 24 hours. The low
is expected to begin moving west overnight. A trough extends west of the low
centre out to 300 nautical miles.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100nm of the low centre, and within 120 nautical miles to the north of
the trough.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds increasing to 34 to 40 knots around the low, and south west
winds 35 knots within 120 nautical miles to the north of the trough.

Forecast positions
Near 15.4S 157.8E at 171800UTC and
Near 15.7S 156.3E at 180600UTC.


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

-------------------------------------------

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 17/0852 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F [998 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.2S 159.5E AT
170600UTC AND IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.

THIS IS THE FINAL ISSUE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY ON 15F,
UNLESS IT MOVES INTO NADI FIR.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Coredesat]

If this low is going to become a TC, it has a lot of work to do. There's hardly any convection associated with it anymore.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1838 UTC 17 March 2006

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 995 hectopascals centred at
171800UTC near 16.6S 157.6E and moving WSW at 15 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected deepen.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100nm of the low centre expanding to 120nm.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds increasing to 34 to 45 knots with maximum winds reaching 50
knots in 12 to 24 hours. Seas very rough and increasing.

Forecast positions
Near 17.0S 155.7E at 180600UTC and
Near 17.3S 153.5E at 181800UTC.


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[Coredesat]

Looking better.

[HURAKAN]

17/2033 UTC 16.4S 157.4E T2.5/2.5 94P -- South Pacific Ocean


According to DVORAK, LARRY HAS ENTERED THE BUILDING!