SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
MiamiensisWx

#441 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:59 pm

Actually, look how cool it was last in the western Atlantic around this time.
0 likes   

User avatar
windycity
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 461
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:45 pm
Location: P.B.county,Fl.
Contact:

#442 Postby windycity » Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:56 pm

I noticed that too,CVW. I was checkin last years SSTs and parts of the atlantic were fairly cool compared to this year.Your fears with Florence may be founded when one looks at SSTs ,and a hurricane comin from the south. It would effect our whole state! Of course,then theres the loop current that will be boiling by june,so i wouldnt be surprised to see poor Fl. hit again and again .This will change the whole state and the people who choose to live here. :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#443 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:03 pm

COMPARING 05 - 06:

Image

1. Compare to 2005, the waters between the Lesser Antilles and Africa are much cooler at this moment.

2. La Niña is quite noticeable!

3. With La Niña in full swing, the Northeastern Pacific Ocean is far cooler compared to last year.

4. The fourth area of analysis seems to be very similar in both graphics, 2006 may be a little cooler compared to 2005.


5. The fifth area includes three diverse areas; the GOM, the Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) and the Western & Central Caribbean (WCC). 2006 sees a GOM noticeably warmer than at this time in 2005. The WNOA is also slightly warmer, but the WCC is a little bit cooler.


Just for curiosity purposes, the 2005 date has the image of Emily and the moon, and the 2006 date has Hurricane Katrina in it!
0 likes   

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

#444 Postby dhweather » Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:34 pm

Good job Hurakan!

The gulf is very warm for this time of year.
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#445 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Mar 15, 2006 10:40 pm

Any system going into the gulf will let loose Katrina all over again if the water gets warmer.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146196
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#446 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 16, 2006 12:57 pm

Image

She continues to expand in size and strengh and when I say she I am referring to La Nina.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
bvigal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2276
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
Location: British Virgin Islands
Contact:

#447 Postby bvigal » Thu Mar 16, 2006 2:04 pm

Hmm, I agree the anomalies this year don't compare to last year. Waters just aren't as warm. That doesn't mean they can't begin to warm and catch up quickly. So, it seems a bit too soon to draw any conclusions as to hurricane season.

Caribbean having Saharan/Sahel dust already, which has been written up by TPC on discusssions lately. It seems last year the dust held development down until reaching much warmer waters, nearer the US mainland. And it did begin in March, I have records of it. Does that mean a clamp on Cape Verde classics? Possibly.

Really, I don't know what to expect this year. And I'm reticent to draw any conclusions from available data this early, other than I do believe the experts who say it will be above average year for the Atlantic basin.

One thing I can note, the African dust reached us here yesterday. The whole climate changed. From cold wet & windy in Jan to dry cool (and windy) in Feb & 1st half March, we are suddenly hot and 'close' and sweating again. In 6 years I don't recall that drastic a change so quickly. Goodby winter, for another 9 months! How I will miss you!!! :wink:
0 likes   

f5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1550
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:29 pm
Location: Waco,tx

#448 Postby f5 » Thu Mar 16, 2006 2:10 pm

what would the psychological impact be another Katrina/Rita threatens the gulf coast?
0 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

#449 Postby tailgater » Thu Mar 16, 2006 2:49 pm

f5 wrote:what would the psychological impact be another Katrina/Rita threatens the gulf coast?


Mass hysteria, warranted or not , the Media will blow up even the weakest topical storm that makes into the GOM
0 likes   

f5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1550
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:29 pm
Location: Waco,tx

#450 Postby f5 » Thu Mar 16, 2006 3:00 pm

tailgater wrote:
f5 wrote:what would the psychological impact be another Katrina/Rita threatens the gulf coast?


Mass hysteria, warranted or not , the Media will blow up even the weakest topical storm that makes into the GOM


How many times you bet the names Katrina&FEMA,goverment failure be used in the same sentence ?
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#451 Postby KWT » Thu Mar 16, 2006 3:01 pm

what I find really intresting is the GOm is already capable of sustaining a 960mb hurricane in the perfect condtions, course at this time of year those would be nigh on impossible I'd have thought but that just goes to show how warm the seas in GOM actually are.

Besides, as has been said the SSTA can shift from one way to another reasonably easily.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
windycity
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 461
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:45 pm
Location: P.B.county,Fl.
Contact:

#452 Postby windycity » Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:06 pm

The GOMEX will only become warmer. The chance of any cooldown,zero. :cry: :cry: :cry:
0 likes   

User avatar
stormtruth
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 651
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:15 pm

#453 Postby stormtruth » Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:19 pm

f5 wrote:
tailgater wrote:
f5 wrote:what would the psychological impact be another Katrina/Rita threatens the gulf coast?


Mass hysteria, warranted or not , the Media will blow up even the weakest topical storm that makes into the GOM


How many times you bet the names Katrina&FEMA,goverment failure be used in the same sentence ?


Hopefully many times since the Bush Administration botched the response to Katrina. We should never forget how the Bush Administration let this happen.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146196
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#454 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:28 pm

stormtruth wrote:
f5 wrote:
tailgater wrote:
f5 wrote:what would the psychological impact be another Katrina/Rita threatens the gulf coast?


Mass hysteria, warranted or not , the Media will blow up even the weakest topical storm that makes into the GOM


How many times you bet the names Katrina&FEMA,goverment failure be used in the same sentence ?


Hopefully many times since the Bush Administration botched the response to Katrina. We should never forget how the Bush Administration let this happen.


I know that you are new in storm2k but to let you know our rules dont allow political statements so refrain from those.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
windycity
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 461
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:45 pm
Location: P.B.county,Fl.
Contact:

#455 Postby windycity » Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:36 pm

But what about the mayor of NO and state goverment? I remember how Nigin dragged his feet ,isnt he accountable? Afterall,with natural diasters,its the local goverment that calls the shots. Ask Ortt about Nigins response. (he didnt want to get outta bed even Max had to call him)
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146196
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#456 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:39 pm

Image

The good news is that the waters right now are very cool east of 40w in the Tropical Eastern Atlantic.The bad news is that it is March not August and by then this cooldown may be history.Let's see what occurs with this very interesting cool pool of anomalies.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#457 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:42 pm

does anyone know what the cool down is being caused from?
0 likes   

User avatar
stormtruth
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 651
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:15 pm

#458 Postby stormtruth » Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:45 pm

windycity wrote:But what about the mayor of NO and state goverment? I remember how Nigin dragged his feet ,isnt he accountable? Afterall,with natural diasters,its the local goverment that calls the shots. Ask Ortt about Nigins response. (he didnt want to get outta bed even Max had to call him)


Yup. Them too. But the Bush administration was unbelievably slow and then they tried to pile all the blame on scapegoat Brownie. We got helicopters to the Pakistan quake in less than 24 hours.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146196
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#459 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:47 pm

stormtruth wrote:
windycity wrote:But what about the mayor of NO and state goverment? I remember how Nigin dragged his feet ,isnt he accountable? Afterall,with natural diasters,its the local goverment that calls the shots. Ask Ortt about Nigins response. (he didnt want to get outta bed even Max had to call him)


Yup. Them too. But the Bush administration was unbelievably slow and then they tried to pile all the blame on scapegoat Brownie. We got helicopters to the Pakistan quake in less than 24 hours.


I know that you are new in storm2k but to let you know our rules dont allow political statements so refrain from those.It's the second time I post this.Please refrain from political statements.This is not a political site but a weather community site.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#460 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:
stormtruth wrote:
windycity wrote:But what about the mayor of NO and state goverment? I remember how Nigin dragged his feet ,isnt he accountable? Afterall,with natural diasters,its the local goverment that calls the shots. Ask Ortt about Nigins response. (he didnt want to get outta bed even Max had to call him)


Yup. Them too. But the Bush administration was unbelievably slow and then they tried to pile all the blame on scapegoat Brownie. We got helicopters to the Pakistan quake in less than 24 hours.


I know that you are new in storm2k but to let you know our rules dont allow political statements so refrain from those.It's the second time I post this.Please refrain from political statements.This is not a political site but a weather community site.


Seriously we would love to hear your opinions but, we don't like political talk in here.... :grr:
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: dl20415, IcyTundra, riapal, wileytheartist and 53 guests