SW Pacific: Severe TC Larry (Ex TD 15)

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AussieMark
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#41 Postby AussieMark » Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:19 pm

I have been saying for a while that when severe QLD cyclones return that the damage will be bad.

a cyclone hitting NW Australia is not that bad as its mainly rural and very low population center.

the coast of Queensland south of Cairns is a lot more populated than the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

some notable Queensland cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Ada 1970
Resorts and boats were destroyed or severely damaged at Hayman, Daydream and South Molle Islands, as well as the two resorts – Happy Bay and Palm Bay – on Long Island. About 80% of buildings in the mainland centres of Shute Harbour, Airlie Beach and Cannonvale were severely damaged. Some damage occurred also inland at Proserpine where, following 24-hours of heavy rain that accompanied the storm, the Proserpine River peaked at 11.16 metres: its highest recorded flood. Fourteen people died


Tropical CYclone Althea 1971
Tropical Cyclone Althea was a category 4 cyclone when it hit Magnetic Island and Townsville in North Queensland on December 24, 1971. Althea produced peak gust wind speeds between 123 and 145 miles per hour (197 and 233 km/h). Three people died and property damage was estimated at AU$115 million loss (1990 value). On Magnetic Island 90% of the houses were damaged or destroyed. In Townsville houses were lifted from their stumps and most trees stripped of foliage.

Storm pathAlthough there was a dangerous storm surge associated with TC Althea (between 2.8 and 3.6 metres) little flooding occurred because the cyclone made landfall on a low tide. However, the combination of storm surge and wave action demolished The Strand sea wall and houses in low-lying areas were inundated with up to 0.6 metres of water.



Tropical Cyclone Wanda 1974
Tropical Cyclone Wanda crossed the Queensland, Australia coast at Double Island Point, south of Fraser Island, on 24 January 1974. Although this tropical cyclone was relatively weak, it dropped enormous quantities of rain on south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales over the Australia Day (26-27 January) weekend, resulting in some of the worst flooding seen in a century. The Queensland state capital, Brisbane, fared particularly badly, with fourteen lives lost and parts of the city submerged under 2 metres of the Brisbane River. In northern New South Wales, a further two fatalities were reported.
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HurricaneHunter914
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#42 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:21 pm

Hey you can't say holy crap! only hurricanegirl can say that... LOL j/k


Well I am the HURRICANE Hunter. :lol:
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#43 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:22 pm

I think its bombing right now!!! :eek: I think its going to go south of Cairns.
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#44 Postby P.K. » Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:39 pm

80kts (950hPa), forecast to reach 100kts

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0028 UTC 19 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 950 hectopascals centred at 190000
UTC near 17.7S 151.1 and moving westwards at 15 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westerly
direction.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 250nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in
the northern semi-circle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 150 nm in the southern semicircle increasing
to 250 nm during the next 24 hours. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in
the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 80nm of the centre and
maximum winds reaching 90 knots near the centre. Maximum winds increasing to 95
to 100 knots near the centre in the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas very rough to
phenomenal on a heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 191200 UTC near 18.0S 148.2E with maximum winds 90 knots
At 200000 UTC near 18.0S 145.5E with maximum winds near 100 knots.


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE
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MiamiensisWx

#45 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:40 pm

Image

LARRY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN EVER, NOW WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE! SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE, LOOKS LIKE LARRY IS ON THE WAY TO 100KT!
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#46 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:49 pm

What Category is it now?
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MiamiensisWx

#47 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:50 pm

It is likely well within Category One strength now (based on the Saffir-Simpson Scale)!
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#48 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:51 pm

That looks to be developing at a fast rate. Expect cat2 durning the next 6 hours.
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#49 Postby P.K. » Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:54 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:What Category is it now?


May well be a low cat 4 now, if not it is a high cat 3.
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#50 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:57 pm

Are the categories different in Austrailia compared to the Atlantic?
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#51 Postby P.K. » Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:59 pm

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#52 Postby NONAME » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:00 pm

Technical it would probley be a cat 3-4 in the australian cat 3 is a hurricane.
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#53 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:02 pm

Thank You P.K.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#54 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:06 pm

The track takes it far to the south of Cairns. It would have to go southwestward to hit any other major city.
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#55 Postby P.K. » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:09 pm

Cat 4 gusting to 230km/h.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane

Issued at 11:04am on Sunday the 19th of March 2006

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
from Cape Flattery to Mackay, and extending to inland areas about Georgetown,
Greenvale and Charters Towers.

At 10 am AEST Sunday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, category 4 with central
pressure 950 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.7 south
and longitude 151.2 east, about 550 km east of Cardwell and 600 km east of
Cairns. The cyclone is expected to intensify further, and move in a general
westerly direction at about 25 to 30 km/h over the next 24 hours. The centre of
Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry is likely to be near the Queensland coast early
Monday morning.

Damaging winds with gusts to 120 km/h are expected to develop about the
Whitsunday Islands late this afternoon, and extend to the coast between Cape
Flattery and Mackay tonight.

Very destructive winds may develop on the coast between Cape Tribulation and
Bowen on Monday morning, with maximum wind gusts reaching 280 km/h near the
centre of the cyclone.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Townsville are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to
steadily rise up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide,
with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending
some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding
should take measures to protect their property as much as possible, and be
prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to
do so by the authorities.

Heavy to flood rains are likely to develop near the coast between Cairns and
Mackay during Sunday night.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4, for 10 am AEST Sunday
Central Pressure : 950 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 17.7 degrees south
longitude 151.2 degrees east
about 550 kilometres east of Cardwell
Recent Movement : West at 30 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 120 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 230 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People between Cape Flattery and Mackay should complete preparations before

nightfall, especially securing boats and property.

The next advice will be issued at 2 pm AEST Sunday.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#56 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:14 pm

Whats the chances for it to become a 5?
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#57 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:41 pm

Pretty good I think
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Weatherfreak000

#58 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:44 pm

Larry sure is looking pretty good now with a good eye feature showing up. Not to mention it's almost at Cat 4 Strength far before earlier forecasted. I think we'll be looking at a very powerful storm at landfall coming.
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#59 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:45 pm

It is at cat-4 strength.
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DoctorHurricane2003

#60 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:47 pm

The BOM is forecasting Larry to cross the coast as a category 5 early Monday Morning (AEST time)

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65240.shtml
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