MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[JonathanBelles]

off topic here but....what is the threat for elmira NY?


1000th post

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0943 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NWRN GA THROUGH NERN AND CNTRL AL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 90...91...
   
   VALID 140343Z - 140515Z
   
   LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FROM ERN TN..INTO NWRN GA AND
   PARTS OF CNTRL AL NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...EXPECT TREND TO
   BE FOR THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05Z AND WW 90 AND 91
   WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TN SWWD
   THROUGH CNTRL AL. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NARROW
   AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR REMAIN STRONG...TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR THE LOW LEVEL
   FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
   LIFTS NEWD INTO SERN CANADA. LATEST SURFACE AND VWP DATA ALREADY
   SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTING TO VEER IN GA DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
   ONGOING STORMS. A LIMITED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
   WIND MAY PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED
   CONTINUE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE TOWARD A MORE
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   33058717 35338557 35818483 36318329 32968614

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0293
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SACRAMENTO VALLEY OF CENTRAL/NRN CA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141928Z - 142100Z
   
   A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING...POSING A LOCAL/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATE THAT MARGINAL AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN SACRAMENTO
   VALLEY...CONFIRMING LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING 200-400 J/KG
   MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE EVOLVING AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. 
   
   WITH 35 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 600 MB -- NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE UNSTABLE
   LAYER -- ABOVE LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A
   FEW STRONGER/ROTATING UPDRAFTS IS INDICATED.  THEREFORE...EXPECT
   MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGEST CELLS...AND PERHAPS A FUNNEL
   CLOUD OR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.
   
   GIVEN STRONGLY DIURNAL NATURE OF CONVECTIVE THREAT...EXPECT ANY
   SEVERE POTENTIAL TO WANE AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR...
   
   40382270 39022226 38102210 37652146 36382054 36511979
   37091954 38052053 39562132 40352201 40772225

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN SD / SRN MN / NRN IA / SWRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 160846Z - 161445Z
   
   THROUGH 12Z-15Z...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES
   APPROACHING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA.
   
   AS OF 08Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEB WITH
   AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD THROUGH SWRN IA AND THEN SEWD
   INTO SRN IL.  THUS FAR...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
   MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH 1) MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
   ZONE FROM CNTRL MN INTO CNTRL WI...AND 2) WITHIN VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   DEFORMATION AREA OR COLD CONVEYOR BELT OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND
   ERN SD.  HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST
   THAT A SECONDARY BAND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIRECT
   THERMAL CIRCULATION ARISING FROM INTENSIFYING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
   850-800 MB LAYER.
   
   CORRESPONDING NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INITIALLY DRY
   LOW-LEVELS /I.E. BELOW 800 MB/ WILL UNDERGO TOP-DOWN SATURATION
   OWING TO THE INCREASED MESOSCALE FORCING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP
   SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...INCLUDING
   THAT PORTION THAT ENHANCES DENDRITE GROWTH. THUS...EXPECT PERIODS OF
   HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 09-10Z...CONTINUE THROUGH
   MID-MORNING...PRIOR TO DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY FROM W TO E ACROSS
   THE AREA.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
   
   44449632 44619424 44369222 43418993 42338979 42059059
   42739347 43169553 43349626 43729689

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI/NORTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
   INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 161909Z - 162345Z
   
   MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/NORTHEAST IA INTO NORTHERN IL AND
   THE GREATER CHICAGO AREA THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 1
   IN/HR OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS OPEN/LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE -- CENTERED
   NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AT 19Z -- PROGRESSING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH COMPACT SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IL. IN
   PRESENCE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...LOW LEVEL WAA/THETA-E
   INFLUX AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
   OMEGA OVER A RELATIVELY CONFINED AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/EASTERN IA
   INTO NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA. SIMILAR TO ECHO BANDING TREND IN
   WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY ALREADY NOTED ALONG A DUBUQUE IA-ROCKFORD
   IL-O'HARE/ORD CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING/WEAK STATIC STABILITY WILL PROMOTE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS BANDING TENDENCY COMBINED WITH AMPLE
   OMEGA THROUGH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER /PER RUC SOUNDINGS/ WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR 1 IN/HR OR GREATER SNOW RATES ON A LOCALIZED BASIS.
   INITIAL DRY/MILD LOW LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
   WILL BE QUICKLY SATURATED/COOLED VIA AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   42018984 42119069 42459152 42999155 43769099 43818995
   43488862 42988792 41388632 41158728

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0296
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 162342Z - 170115Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS FAR SE TX AND
   SRN LA WILL LIKELY HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS
   EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS AT 05Z SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT IN PLACE EXTENDING NEWD
   ACROSS EAST TX INTO SRN AR. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A MOIST AXIS
   EXISTS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NEWD FROM SE TX
   INTO NERN LA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MOIST
   AXIS AND THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING IS HELPING STORMS TO
   DEVELOP. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SEVERE EXISTS ACROSS FAR SE
   TX AND FAR SW LA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACCORDING TO
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. WSR88-D VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
   VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ANY HAIL
   AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
   EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...
   
   30009288 29689519 30229502 30679346 30679121 30219034
   29999106

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0297
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA EWD INTO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 170941Z - 171115Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...A FEW PRODUCING MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL...THROUGH 12-14Z FROM PARTS OF SERN LA EWD INTO SRN AL
   AND WRN FL PANHANDLE.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAD
   DEVELOPED ALONG A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER SERN LA AND SERN MS.
   AT 09Z...THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SRN AL SWWD INTO FAR SRN MS TO
   SWRN LA /30 N LCH/ TO SERN TX...AND SHOULD REACH COASTAL AREAS OF
   LA/SERN MS/SWRN AL BY 12-14Z.  08Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED
   THE CINH SOUTH/AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINED TOO STRONG FOR SURFACE
   BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATE ENVIRONMENT /NEAR 8 C/KM/ OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  THUS...
   FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW PARCELS TO CONTINUE REACHING
   THEIR LFC...GENERALLY AROUND 950-850 MB PER 08Z RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.  WEAK INSTABILITY
   /MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE
   STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   29649021 30359137 30769116 31258881 31928639 30778588
   30228605 29118925

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF W/NW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 171346Z - 171445Z
   
   THREAT FOR HAIL...POSSIBLY SEVERE...EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
   MORNING ACROSS W/NW TX.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING FOR PARTS
   OF THIS REGION.
   
   DURING THE LAST HOUR /SINCE 1230Z/...REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA
   INDICATED ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
   FAIRLY RAPIDLY ACROSS W/NW TX. THIS TREND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   APPARENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH
   REGION AT THIS TIME.
   
   12Z DRT SOUNDING SHOWED ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PW AROUND
   1.3 INCHES/.  SSELY 30-40 KT LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT THIS
   MOISTURE NNWWD ATOP THE COOLER AIR MASS NORTH OF THE SURFACE
   BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED WNWWD FROM S TX THROUGH NRN COAHUILA
   MEXICO AND THEN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  PARCELS WILL CONTINUE
   TO REACH THEIR LFC OVER WEST CENTRAL/NW TX THIS MORNING WITH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8 C/KM/ AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL. 
   
   IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND IT APPEARS THAT INFLUENCE OF
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
   MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   30420186 31430212 33270172 34040143 34050037 33289875
   30819924 30180031

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0299
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0919 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 171519Z - 171645Z
   
   STRONG AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
   THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND
   WEST-CNTRL TX THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HAIL
   THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TODAY.
   
   CLUSTER OF INTENSE EARLY MORNING TSTMS FROM MIDLAND EAST ALONG AND
   SOUTH OF I20 APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE
   NORTH OF STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY. LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS LIKELY ENHANCED
   ACROSS THIS FRONT AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET REACHED ITS MAXIMUM
   OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND RECENT RADAR/VIL TRENDS NOW SHOW A
   DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY.
   
   WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
   TRAVERSE THE REGION TODAY WHILE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
   NEARER THE SURFACE FRONT...FROM THE BIG BEND AREA ACROSS THE PECOS
   VALLEY. LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT BULK OF CONVECTION
   THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ROOTED WELL ABOVE A RELATIVELY
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONLY POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
   HAIL. MEANWHILE...SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY GIVEN
   POTENTIAL FOR MODEST HEATING/MIXING ACROSS WEST TX LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   31209864 31280068 31730241 32530233 33350134 33399950
   33039788 31789773 31529797

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0300
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 171939Z - 172115Z
   
   SEVERE STORM THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED.  WW NOT
   NEEDED ATTM...BUT WILL MONITOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION
   AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF CAP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   INCREASE IN CU FIELD IS INDICATED ATTM INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY -- NOW
   LYING FROM DEEP S TX NWWD INTO THE TX BIG BEND/DAVIS MOUNTAINS
   REGION.  THOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS MUCH DRIER W OF MRF...DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 50S TO LOW 60S ARE OBSERVED OVER AREAS E OF MRF AND ALONG AND S
   OF BOUNDARY.
   
   THOUGH LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW IS
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH NW-SE
   ORIENTATION OF FRONT WILL YIELD A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO FORM ON OR
   NEAR FRONT AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY NEWD AND BECOME ELEVATED ATOP MUCH
   COOLER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER N OF SURFACE FRONT.  THEREFORE...MAIN
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS WHICH FORM.
   
   COULD A STORM DEVELOP OVER BREWSTER...PECOS...OR TERRELL COUNTIES --
   S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   29380397 30430405 31120344 30950205 29730015 29330036
   29240084 29760143 29830224 29710266 28950316 29180369

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0629 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92...
   
   VALID 180029Z - 180200Z
   
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS WW 92 OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
   ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD FROM
   NEAR DEL RIO TO NEAR FT STOCKTON. A MOIST AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG AND
   SOUTH OF FT STOCKTON WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
   F. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. IN
   ADDITION...THE RUC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN THE
   VICINITY SUGGESTING STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE SOME DUE TO THE
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING. AS A
   RESULT...THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
   MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS. THE
   MOST LIKELY AREA FOR NEW SUPERCELL STORMS WOULD BE SWD ALONG THE
   MOIST AXIS. SUPERCELLS THAT DRIFT EWD WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS
   THE STORMS ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY. FOR THIS REASON...THE
   ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER WW EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   29510152 29560199 29570263 30380305 30980333 31390338
   31540300 31550219 31120154 30150107 29670102

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW AND WEST CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 181126Z - 181200Z
   
   WW MAY BE NEEDED...IF STORM COVERAGE BEGINS TO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS
   DEVELOPING ACROSS SW/W INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.
   
   EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD
   FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO NEAR DRT AND THEN INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO
   WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WSR-88D VAD DATA AT DRT INDICATED
   SSELY LLJ HAD STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 55 KT DURING THE LAST HOUR
   TRANSPORTING VERY MOIST AIR MASS NWD ATOP THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR
   MASS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ALREADY IN PLACE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
   AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS AIDED IN A FEW INTENSIFYING STORMS FROM
   PECOS COUNTY ENEWD TO BROWN COUNTY.
   
   QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
   THIS MORNING.  MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EVIDENT ACROSS THIS REGION
   PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITHIN WAA REGIME AS HAS ALREADY BEEN INDICATED PER REGIONAL RADARS.
   SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LLJ BEING STRONGEST THROUGH 12Z THEN
   WEAKENING AS IT VEERS TO SSWLY.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THREAT FOR
   SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.  DESPITE THESE FACTORS...
   MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGEST...THOUGH LIKELY REMAINING ISOLATED...STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   30480292 31400302 32850252 33060061 32489936 31479879
   30509921 30010052 30210233

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST TX/FAR SW OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 181231Z - 181300Z
   
   WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF WEST TX INTO FAR SW OK.
   
   DESPITE APPARENT RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN OK
   ATTM...RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE INTO SRN PARTS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE AND GREATER INSTABILITY NOTED ON 12Z AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS
   THAN PER EARLIER SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   STORM DEVELOPMENT...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...IS INCREASING.  MUCAPE
   1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...GIVEN ELEVATED
   NATURE OF ACTIVITY AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8+ C/KM/.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   31350188 33210214 34660202 35020125 35169992 34629925
   32699896 31569907 31240043 31210160

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0926 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 181526Z - 181800Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN OK THIS MORNING. A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
   SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG
   SLOPED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A LARGE MCS WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN RADAR AND
   SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS TAYLOR...CALLAHAN...COMANCHE...AND EASTLAND
   COUNTIES IN NCNTRL TX. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   TOWARD THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX BEFORE NOON CST.
   
   UNLIKE YESTERDAY...WHEN ELEVATED STORMS WEAKENED THROUGH THE LATE
   MORNING AS LLJ DIMINISHED...ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
   SUSTAINED BY MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING. LATEST ENSEMBLE
   MEAN FCST INDICATES THAT MASS INFLOW ON MODEST LLJ WILL PERSIST FROM
   NWRN TX TO THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER
   DIFFLUENCE STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM
   AMA AND MAF DISPLAYED STEEP 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.6C IN ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60KT. GIVEN THE
   LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CONVECTION WITHIN STRENGTHENING WARM
   CONVEYOR...COUPLED WITH UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...THE CHANCE
   FOR ELEVATED AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
   INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   31940044 32810148 34400240 34980179 35020021 34669891
   33899675 32489615 31709702

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND NCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93...
   
   VALID 181930Z - 182130Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL REMAIN A THREAT FROM THE SRN TX
   PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS EAST TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NCNTRL TX...A PARTICULARLY
   PERSISTENT STORM HAS TRACKED FROM HILL COUNTY EWD TO NAVARRO COUNTY
   AND WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF WW 93. THIS CELL
   IS PART OF A LARGER COMPLEX OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
   PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL ACROSS NERN TX THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. FARTHER UPSTREAM...GENERALLY WEAK STORM UPDRAFTS CONTINUE
   TO DEVELOP WITHIN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WELL NORTH AND REMOVED FROM
   CAPPED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SITUATED FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
   NWD ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY.
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING EXTENSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF
   PATTERN EVOLVING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
   LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. BELT OF STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON
   THE SERN FLANK OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD ACROSS TX/OK THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP
   LAYER ASCENT AND SHEAR ATOP PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT.
   GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   WITHIN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WHERE INSTABILITY AND
   SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   31439588 32570216 34740252 33629583

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0513 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX AND EXTREME SERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 182313Z - 190115Z
   
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS AREA
   FROM PECOS RIVER EWD AND ENEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING...LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED
   FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS AND LTG DATA SHOW BAND OF MIDLEVEL TSTMS
   MOVING ENEWD 25-30 KT BETWEEN CNM-MRF...W OF FRONT AND DRYLINE.
   THIS REPRESENTS ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE UVV EJECTING NEWD FROM
   BASE OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY
   FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN PORTIONS SAT AREA WNWWD...GENERALLY ALONG I-10
   TO WITHIN ABOUT 10 S FST...THEN NWWD TOWARD GDP AREA.  LITTLE
   MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AT SFC IS EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...THOUGH ITS SLOPE ABOVE SFC MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW
   FARTHER N OVER PERMIAN BASIN/CONCHO VALLEY REGION.  WEAK MESOLOW IS
   EVIDENT INVOF FST.
   
   AS MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVES INTO AREA...EXPECT CONVECTION
   TO ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WAA...RICHER MOISTURE AND
   STRONGER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ATOP FRONTAL LAYER.  ELEVATED MUCAPES
   WILL INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT FROM MAF THROUGH SJT AREAS...REACHING
   AROUND 1000 J/KG.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP/PROFILER WINDS
   SUGGEST 50-60 KT DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR ROOTED AROUND 850 MB.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   30700291 30930358 31720396 32040385 32470378 33030357
   33270211 33030074 32460017 31769998 31030017 30320106
   30520252

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0307
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0804 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/WRN AND CNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 190204Z - 190600Z
   
   ...WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF FZRA/FZDZ ACROSS WRN
   SD AND PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
   TONIGHT...
   
   LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NRN AZ/SRN UT
   THIS EVENING. INCREASING PVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL FOCUS A
   BROAD AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
   HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
   CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND AND ERN SD ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION
   BAND NEAR 700MB.
   
   WEST OF THIS ZONE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS FALLING. 00Z SOUNDING AT
   RAPID CITY INDICATED A SATURATED SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM THE SFC TO
   AROUND 750MB...WITH A DRY LAYER ABOVE. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
   LAYERS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH /I.E. BELOW -10C/ FOR THE AIRMASS TO
   CONTAIN ICE CRYSTALS NECESSARY FOR SNOW...SO A PERIOD OF FZRA/FZDZ
   WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLUMN COMPLETELY SATURATES AND COOLS
   FURTHER.
   
   STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
   NEB/SD EARLIER IN THE DAY /PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSLOPE
   FLOW/ RESTRICTED DIURNAL HEATING...SO HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE
   LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SD/NEB...AND THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE WITH
   REGARD TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC WET BULB
   TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS WRN SD...SO MAIN PTYPE
   WILL BE FZRA/FZDZ. AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE HEAVY...BUT FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING PCPN MAY PERSIST FOR 2-4 HOURS BEFORE
   CHANGING TO SNOW. ACROSS WRN NEB...MAIN PTYPE WILL BE RAIN...EXCEPT
   IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS FALL TO 32F OR BELOW. HEAVIER PCPN WILL BEGIN
   IN EARNEST AFTER 05-06Z.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   40980133 41110385 42850401 45880385 45900123 44049947
   42309865 41159989

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0858 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94...
   
   VALID 190258Z - 190500Z
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS AS OF 245Z SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTING
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM INITIAL CONVECTION ABOUT 35 ESE FST...NEAR
   I-10.  FRONT EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS EDWARDS/CROCKETT COUNTIES TOWARD
   SAT AREA.  CLUSTERS OF TSTMS BETWEEN SJT-DRT WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD
   WRN/SRN PORTIONS TX HILL COUNTRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER S OF FRONT HAS
   BEGUN TO COOL DIABATICALLY...MODIFIED DRT RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE PARCELS ROOTED VERY NEAR SFC...WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1500
   J/KG...MINIMAL DOWNWARD INHIBITION FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS.  PRESENCE OF
   AS MUCH AS 75 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
   SUPERCELLS AND BOWS.  ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE/ROTATING STORMS --
   SUCH AS APPARENT SUPERCELL IN MIDDLE OF VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 255Z
   -- MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...AND POTENTIAL FOR A
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF FRONT.
   
   INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD APPROXIMATELY 35 KT
   AWAY FROM MAF AREA...AFTER PRODUCING SUBSEVERE MEASURED GUSTS THERE.
    SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
   MOVES OVER PRONOUNCED STATIC STABILITY IN BOUNDARY LAYER N OF SFC
   FRONT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL SUBSEVERE/MARGINALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM STRONGEST
   EMBEDDED CELLS.  VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FARTHER NE ACROSS
   ABI/SEP REGION...THOUGH WEAKER AND MORE ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY LIMIT
   ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
   E OF WW ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   29790203 30350247 30910241 31870206 32740194 33080146
   33270023 33419966 33159920 32879905 32089882 31509886
   30379873 29749920 29350089

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1015 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...E OF WW 94
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 190415Z - 190615Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT EWD FROM WW 94 AFTER ABOUT
   530Z...BEFORE GRADUAL OVERALL WEAKENING TREND ENSUES.  ANOTHER WW
   MAY BE REQUIRED.  ALSO...LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE
   POSSIBLE. 
   
   BOTH ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO
   WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN TX...INDICATING GENERAL
   DECREASE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT BETWEEN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS
   ALONG/E OF I-35.  HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BETWEEN E EDGE OF WW 94 AND I-35...GIVEN
   EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS.  MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG
   ARE EXPECTED.  STRONGEST STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL BE ALONG SRN
   PORTIONS OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...GIVEN 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ FCST.
   RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL SFC CONTRIBUTES TO PW 1.25
   INCHES BASED ON GPS DATA...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS.
   MERGING AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL ENHANCE THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   29849898 30889912 32469959 33189961 33419895 33339797
   32849730 32189707 30209760 29689844 29599888

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0310
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94...
   
   VALID 190530Z - 190700Z
   
   LARGE AREA OF TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF ERN PORTIONS WW DURING NEXT
   2 HOURS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL HAIL BEING MAIN THREATS.
   OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...REF MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION 309 FOR MORE DETAILS.
   
   ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS TERRELL/CROCKETT
   COUNTIES...IN ZONE OF ELEVATED WAA/ASCENT BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   THESE TSTMS WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS CROCKETT COUNTY TOWARD AREA
   BETWEEN SJT-JCT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS WELL.  MOST UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS REMAINS NEAR AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONTAL ZONE --
   ANALYZED AT 5Z FROM NEAR VCT ACROSS SAT AREA THEN WNWWD OVER
   CROCKETT COUNTY.  MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE EVIDENT OVER THIS
   REGION...THOUGH STRONG CINH SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DEVELOPMENT S OF
   FRONT. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM TO ITS N WITH
   MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AND 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ROOTED JUST
   BENEATH 850 MB LEVEL BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   29689991 30230065 30200200 31390099 32859933 32589896
   31729898 31159889 30419880 29749909 29619960