Plains snowstorm: 18-21 March

[Craig]

Do you think it will? I hope not...and I think it will moisten up by then. I think we'll end over over 12 inches

[plainsman]

this looks like a classic 'texas panhandle hooker' snow storm for the plains.. snow will fall from the Texas Panhandle and get really heavy in north central kansas and will ''hook'' up into Iowa.. it should be really interesting.. it seems like the heaviest snow will be in north central kansas and south centrel nebraska.....

[senorpepr]

[simplykristi]

Went back and re-read Omaha's forecast... It's misleading with the winter weather advistory posted only on NOAA. Someone is going to get a lot of snow out of this. Winter storm watches are off to my north and west. It could get real interesting here on Monday.

Kristi

[senorpepr]

Still a suedo-dryline between Omaha and Lincoln that keeping any precipitation from falling. Also, with easterly winds, more dry air is coming from Iowa.

[senorpepr]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 
1038 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006 
   
DISCUSSION 
 
EVENING UPPER AIR CHARTS CONTINUED TO SHOW LARGE STORM SYSTEM 
WORKING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES...WITH INCREASINGLY 
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY 
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD OVER MOST OF 
NEBRASKA...WITH A SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT EXPANDING FROM 
COLORADO INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED 
TO SPREAD NORTH FROM WIDE OPEN GULF...AND 850 DEW POINTS GREATER 
THAN 5C NOSING INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SURFACE CHARTS INDICATED 
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO 
KANSAS. EVEN LOW 30S DEW POINTS WERE PREVALENT ACROSS WESTERN 
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW 
WAS ADVECTING VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR INTO MUCH OF THE CWA. DEW 
POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING ALL EVENING...WITH ALL BUT 
THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE TEENS OR LOW 20S.   
 
RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR 
SO IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH AREA OBS 
REPORTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN 
WHERE MID LEVEL HAVE NOT SATURATED FULLY YET. EXPECT THIS AREA OF 
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD EAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT 
WILL HAVE TO SATURATE A GOOD 3000 TO 6000 FOOT DRY LOW LAYER 
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CAN COMMENCE BASED ON CEILINGS AND 
EVENING SOUNDINGS.   
 
00Z NAM AND RUC SHOW THIS HAPPENING QUITE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT 
IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT MAY TAKE AS LONG AS SUNRISE IN AREAS 
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE MODELS ARE INDICATING EVEN MORE 
QPF THAN THEIR PREVIOUS 18Z RUNS...GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER TO 
HALF INCH OF LIQUID RANGE...AND POINT TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH 
GREATEST POTENTIAL. THIS FITS NICELY WITH WINTER STORM WARNING 
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE 
ABUNDANT. EXPECT MUCH OF THE INDICATED QPF TO GO TO SATURATING LOW 
LEVELS AT POINTS FARTHER EAST...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATIONS 
IN THE ADVISORY RANGES INDICATED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
 
QUICK LOOK AT THE SECOND CHUNK OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM COMING OUT ON 
MONDAY SHOWS THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH IS STILL GOOD. AND 
AGAIN...00Z NAM IS EVEN WETTER THAN EARLIER RUNS. 
 
NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. 

[simplykristi]

We are nw under a winter storm watch for tomorrow. It looks like the greater KC area could get up to 7 inches of snow. Since I live on the SE side, I expect maybe 3 to 4 inces with the greater amounts to my north and west.

Kristi

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...

.A TWO PART WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
SNOW...WHICH MOVED INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
NOON. THE SNOW COULD OCCASIONALLY BE HEAVY THIS MORNING
...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A BEATRICE AND LINCOLN TO NORFOLK LINE. THE
SNOW COULD LET UP A LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6
INCHES ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THAT AREA. VERY DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TODAY AND EVEN MUCH OF TONIGHT. MOST SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OR TWO FOR
THOSE IOWA COUNTIES BORDERING NEBRASKA EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
OMAHA.

THE SECOND PART OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ROLL INTO MID AMERICA
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 12
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE MORE
LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA NORTH OF OMAHA COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 
432 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006 
   
DISCUSSION 
 
LATE WINTER STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
HEAVY SNOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS. 
 
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY 
THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT 
HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER NEBRASKA WITH MUCH OF IT 
SNOW. STEEP LAPSE RATES WORKING NEWD HAS PROMPTED AN OCNL LTG 
STRIKE W OF THE CWA AND CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUED TO SHOW EITHER 
DECREASING OR NEARLY VERTICAL THETA E SFCS INDICATING UPRIGHT OR 
SLANT-WISE CONVECTION PSBL TDA. SO WL CONT TO MENTION CHC OF SLEET 
ALONG WITH THE SNOW. HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY LIKELY IN A DEFORMATION 
AREA ALONG WRN ZONES WHERE LOW LVL FLOW ISN/T QUITE AS DRY AND SFC 
TEMPS WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MOST OF IT TO ACCUMULATE. 
THIS WAS GENERALLY WHERE THE EXISTING WARNING WAS...BUT EXPANDED 
IT FAR WRN COUNTIES S TO KS BORDER. BLYR TEMPS MAY BE JUST WARM 
ENOUGH FOR OCNL LGT RAIN FAR SERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY DURING PCPN 
ONSET OR IF LIFT WANES A BIT. POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR TDA AND EVEN 
TNGT IS SFC-850 MB TRAJECTORIES FOR OUR ERN ZONES ARE COMING FROM 
VERY DRY AIR WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE TEENS AND EVEN LOWER 850 MB 
DWPTS ADVECTING WWD AND PSBLY KEEPING A SHARP GRADIENT TO HEAVY 
SNOW THRU 12Z MON. THUS WON/T EXPAND ANY HEADLINES FOR TDA E OF 
THE MO RIVER AND A FEW NEBR COUNTIES AROUND OMA NWD AMOUNTS COULD 
CONCEIVABLY BE MARGINAL BUT CONTINUED ADVSRY. MAIN QUESTION...BESIDES 
ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS...WAS WHAT TO DO WITH THE POSSIBLE GAP/DECREASE 
BETWEEN THE WARM ADVCTN PCPN TODAY AND THE PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE 
MAIN SYSTEM ON MONDAY. STLT IMAGERY SINCE SATURDAY EVENING HAS 
SHOWN A DISTINCTIVE DRY PUNCH/SUBSIDENCE WORKING TWD SRN NEBR AS 
0F 09Z AND THIS COULD CAUSE A DECREASE IN PCPN LATER THIS MORNING 
OR BY EARLY AFTN. SO WL ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY FOR HEAVIEST 
ACCUMULATIONS THRU 18Z. SINCE THERE WAS SOME INDICATION FROM THE 
GFS/NAM THAT PCPN WOULD BE ONGOING AT 00Z OR WOULD MOVE BACK INTO 
THE CWA BFR 06Z...SPCLY PER 00Z GFS...AND TO BLEND IN WITH 
SURROUNDING OFFICES...EXTENDED WARNING THROUGH TOMORROW W AND 
UPGRADED WATCH TO A WARNING AND BEGAN IT AT 00Z FOR LOCATIONS THAT 
WON/T BE IN THE WARNING TODAY. THIS WAS INSTEAD OF LEAVING A GAP 
OF NO HEADLINES IN THE TNGT PD. 
 
LIKE THE NW TO SE SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL TDA...A SIMILAR CUTOFF 
COULD EXIST MON/MONDAY NIGHT AS MAIN UPR LOW EJECTS ENEWD ALTHOUGH 
IT COULD BEGIN TO TILT MORE E-W. THUS WILL KEEP OUR 3 NRN IA 
COUNTIES OUT OF ANY HEADLINES ATTM AND WL ALLOW HEADLINES TO 
EXPIRE SVRL NERN NEBR COUNTIES ENE OF OFK. 
 
STORM TOTAL QPF GENERATED FROM NAM AND GFS WAS SIMILAR AND SCARY 
WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OVR SWRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. CMC WAS LESS BUT 
WAS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 2 INCHES FAR SRN ZONES. WITH 3-4 G/KG 
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PRESENT IN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AREA...IF LIFT 
WAS CONTINUAL FOR JUST 2 12 HOUR PDS FROM TDA THROUGH MON NGT 
STUDIES HAVE SHOWN IT WOULD SUPPORT SOME 12-18 INCH AMOUNTS. DUE 
TO SOME SETTLING/MELTING EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 
SNOW TOTALS MORE CONSERVATIVE CLOSER AND A LTL UNDER THE 12-18 
NUMBER. SNOW COULD END BY 06Z TUE BUT CONTD WARNING THRU 12Z TUE 
IN CASE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT A LTL SLOWER AND TO MATCH UP WITH SRN/ERN 
NEIGHBORS. 
 
SNOWPACK WILL HAVE A LINGERING EFFECT ON TEMPS MUCH OF THIS 
UPCOMING WEEK AND SEEMS TO BE GENERALLY REFLECTED IN PREV FCST. 
THUS MADE LTL/NO CHANGES BYND TUE. 

[Omaha DUDE]

I could care less if it snows a ton now, because school is cancelled!

[senorpepr]

I'm still standing by my last statement: 8-12". However, dry air has been hindering snowfall all day... and my forecast may still be too high.

[Omaha DUDE]

channel 8 seems to think we'll come close to the 24 hour record snowfall of 18.3 inches from 7 am mon- 7 am tues.

[senorpepr]

channel 8 seems to think we'll come close to the 24 hour record snowfall of 18.3 inches from 7 am mon- 7 am tues.

A lot of forecasters disagree with him...

Personally, I believe he's following the models TOO closely. As long as we stay at or above freezing, like we are now, it will be difficult to get the snow going on.

[Omaha DUDE]

Well the High for tomorrow is only 30 degrees... So thats below freezing i think it should be alright after this dry slot passes.

[senorpepr]

Even 30 degrees limits the amount of snow.

[Craig]

you know what...stop hugging the NWS. As of 8 AM I have almost 8 Inches. Looks like your wrong buddy. Alll the TV MEt's are predicting a additional 14 inches of snow. NWS seams to be always scared to puout those kind of amounts.

Thundersnow guy later today with rates of 1-3 inches a hour!

[AirmaN]

This is lame. The snowstorm is here, the snow is coming down, all of the schools are closed, EXCEPT ONE, MINE. University of Nebraska-Omaha, I want to go down there and slap up the guy deciding we have classes, except I don't think they would pay for the damage done to my car if i accidentally slide into a light pole. University of nebraska-lincoln and kearney are both closed... every other college is closed...

[wx247]

AirmaN, I wouldn't risk it unless you have something very important to tackle in class today. Remember... your safety comes first.

[wx247]

you know what...stop hugging the NWS. As of 8 AM I have almost 8 Inches. Looks like your wrong buddy. Alll the TV MEt's are predicting a additional 14 inches of snow. NWS seams to be always scared to puout those kind of amounts.

Thundersnow guy later today with rates of 1-3 inches a hour!

Woah... calm down. Not to be rude, but this what got you banned last time.

[senorpepr]