SW Pacific: Severe TC Larry (Ex TD 15)

[HurricaneHunter914]

OMG! A cyclone making landfall at Cat-5! Hell is letting loose again!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its going in between the city's. So this "cat5" will not hit a area with alot of people in it.

[MiamiensisWx]

65KT, 976 millibars, and continuing to look good!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

You are quite wrong Matt

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes most likely wrong. But if it go's south then I'm dead wrong. It has a 4.5/4.5t=75 knot winds. I'm thinking because it losted its eye over the last few frames that strengthing is over. So 80 knots at landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 MAR 2006 Time : 033300 UTC
Lat : 17:50:19 S Lon : 150:24:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 970.8mb/ 77.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.8mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.8 5.3

Eye Temp : -63.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

Scene Type : OBSCURED EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF

[Coredesat]

WWPS20 KNES 190325
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN MTSAT VIS/IRDAY
.
MARCH 19 2006 0233Z
.
17.9S 150.5E T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS LARRY (17P)
.
PAST POSITION....17.3S 153.7E 18/1333Z IRNIGHT
17.0S 155.9E 18/0233Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS....CLASSIFICATION BASED ON LIGHT GRAY EYE PATTERN WITH
CMG SURROUNDING BLACK EYE. THIS YIELDS DT OF 4.5. MET IS 4.0
WITH PT AT 4.5. FINAL-T BASED ON PT AND DT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NMI.

[TheEuropean]

Here is the latest warning by BoM:

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters in the area Cape Tribulation to
Mackay are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:54pm on Sunday the 19th of March 2006

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
from Cape Tribulation to Mackay, and extending to inland areas about Croydon,
Greenvale and Charters Towers.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch extends inland to near the Normanton area.

The warning between Cape Flattery and Cape Tribulation has been cancelled.

At 1 pm AEST Sunday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, category 4 with central
pressure 950 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.7 south
and longitude 150.4 east, about 460 km east of Innisfail. The cyclone is
expected to intensify further, and move in a general westerly direction at about
25 to 30 km/h over the next 24 hours. The centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone
Larry is likely to be near the Queensland coast early Monday morning.

Damaging winds with gusts to 120 km/h are expected to develop about the
Whitsunday Islands late this afternoon, and extend to the coast between Cape
Tribulation and Mackay tonight.

Very destructive winds may develop on the coast between Cairns and Bowen on
Monday morning, with maximum wind gusts reaching 280 km/h near the centre of the
cyclone.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Townsville are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to
steadily rise up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide,
with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending
some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding
should take measures to protect their property as much as possible, and be
prepared to follow advice regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so
by the authorities.

Heavy rains are likely to develop near the coast between Cairns and Mackay
Monday morning and this will lead to significant stream and river rises and
flooding of low lying areas.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4, for 1 pm AEST Sunday
Central Pressure : 950 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 17.7 degrees south
longitude 150.4 degrees east
about 460 kilometres east of Innisfail
Recent Movement : West at 25/30 kilometres per hour


Destructive winds : out to 120 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 230 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People between Cape Tribulation and Mackay and the adjacent inland should
complete preparations before nightfall, especially the protection of boats and
other property.

People over inland areas around Normanton and Croydon should consider what
action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

The next advice will be issued at 5 pm AEST Sunday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[CHRISTY]

VERY IMPRESSIVE!

[SouthFloridawx]

Prayers going out for them

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 MAR 2006 Time : 060000 UTC
Lat : 17:42:00 S Lon : 149:39:27 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 953.8mb/ 94.8kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +5.0mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.2 5.9 5.9

Eye Temp : -29.1C Cloud Region Temp : -75.7C

Scene Type : RAGGED EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF

5.2t nearing 95 knots

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:51pm on Sunday the 19th of March 2006

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
from Cape Tribulation to Mackay, and extending to inland areas about Croydon,
Greenvale and Charters Towers.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch extends inland to near the Normanton area.

At 4 pm AEST Sunday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, category 4 with central
pressure 935 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.6 south
and longitude 149.7 east, about 390 km east of Innisfail. The cyclone is
expected to intensify further, and move in a general westerly direction at about
25 km/h over the next 24 hours. The centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry is
likely to be near the Queensland coast early Monday morning.

Damaging winds with gusts to 120 km/h are expected to develop about the
Whitsunday Islands late this afternoon, and extend to the coast between Cape
Tribulation and Mackay tonight.

Very destructive winds may develop on the coast between Cairns and Bowen on
Monday morning, with maximum wind gusts reaching 280 km/h near the centre of the
cyclone.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Townsville are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to
steadily rise up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide,
with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending
some way inland. People living in areas should be prepared to evacuate if
advised by authorities.

A preliminary flood warning has been issued for coastal rivers and streams
between Innisfail and Mackay.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4, for 4 pm AEST Sunday
Central Pressure : 935 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 17.6 degrees south
longitude 149.7 degrees east
about 390 kilometres east of Innisfail
Recent Movement : West at 25 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 120 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 240 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People between Cape Tribulation and Mackay and the adjacent inland should
complete preparations before nightfall, especially the protection of boats and



other property.

People over inland areas around Normanton and Croydon should consider what
action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

The next advice will be issued at 8 pm AEST Sunday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this storm looks very very good. Nrl currently says 75 knots. But I think its closer to 90 knots.

[whereverwx]

[Derek Ortt]

JT seems to be off BIG TIME based upon the satellite imagery.

This looks like an Atlantic cat 3 based upon sat imagery, not a 75KT storm

[DoctorHurricane2003]

JTWC is always off with S HEMI storms, especially with them updating only every 12 hours.

The best place to go is http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone

Currently, the gusts are to 240 km/h (~150 mph) which gives an ~125-130 MPH sustained wind.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0642 UTC 19 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 935 hectopascals centred at 190600
UTC near 17.6S 149.7 and moving westwards at 13 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westerly
direction.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 250nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in
the northern semi-circle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 150 nm in the southern semicircle increasing
to 250 nm during the next 24 hours. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in
the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 60nm of the centre and
maximum winds reaching 90 knots near the centre. Maximum winds increasing to
about 110 knots near the centre in the next 12 hours. Seas very rough to
phenomenal on a heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 191800 UTC near 17.5S 147.0E with maximum winds 110 knots
At 200600 UTC near 17.6S 144.2E with maximum winds near 80 knots over land.


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HurricaneBill]

JT seems to be off BIG TIME based upon the satellite imagery.

This looks like an Atlantic cat 3 based upon sat imagery, not a 75KT storm

True, remember Cyclone Harvey last year?

JTWC had it at 50KT at landfall. While in actuality, Harvey was 95KT at landfall.

However, Harvey's small size might have been the reason for that.

[HurricaneBill]

Another example of a midget cyclone is Cyclone Ivor from 1990. Ivor was classified as a Category 1 (Saffir-Simpson).

However, a ship passed through the eye and reported 145 mph winds and a pressure of 928 mb!

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

A 935mb pressure usually means you're messing with a major storm, no matter what category you give it. That said, people are saying everything from 1-5 right now. I'd appreciate it if someone could give a good translation of the Australian advisories...I miss the NHC this time of the year.