SW Pacific: Severe TC Larry (Ex TD 15)

[AussieMark]

DAMAGING winds, high tides and flooding are expected to batter parts of north Queensland today as Cyclone Larry intensifies.

The weather bureau overnight upgraded the cyclone to a category three, issuing severe weather warnings for coastal communities from Cape Flattery to Mackay and inland areas near Chillagoe and Charters Towers.
Larry was located in the Coral Sea about 680km east of Cairns and was expected to hit the coast early tomorrow.

Damaging winds with gusts to 120kph were expected to develop around the Whitsunday Islands late this afternoon and extend to the coast between Cape Flattery and Mackay overnight, the bureau said.

Very destructive winds, with gusts to 230kph, could also develop on the coast between Cape Tribulation and Bowen tomorrow morning.

"As the centre approaches the coast, sea levels are likely to rise well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas near the shoreline," the bureau said.

"Heavy to flood rains are likely to develop near the coast between Cairns and Mackay during Sunday night."
Larry is expected to further intensify and move in a general westerly direction at about 25kph over the next 24 hours.

North Queenslanders are being urged to heed cyclone warnings from the State Emergency Service (SES) and Counter Disaster and Rescue Services (CDRS).

"The business of listening and taking precautions according to the instructions is very important in these things," a CDRS spokesman said

[AussieMark]

PREPARE FOR CYCLONE LARRY
19/3/2006

The Minister for Emergency Services, Pat Purcell, has today urged all residents in northern Queensland to finalise preparations for the arrival of Cyclone Larry.

Cyclone Larry is moving westwards and is expected to cross the Queensland coast between Cooktown and Mackay early on Monday morning, bringing gale force winds, torrential rain and flooding.

Mr Purcell said the Department of Emergency Services was on full alert, and was prepared for the arrival of the cyclone.

“Frontline emergency response groups from Cairns, Townsville and other towns and cities in the state’s north are finalising preparations,’’ Mr Purcell said.

“Ready response teams will today be deployed from Brisbane to Cairns and Townsville, and the Queensland Rescue helicopter fleet has been put on stand-by ready to respond.

“The Department has been working closely with other government agencies, local councils, the State Emergency Service, energy suppliers and other organisations to ensure a coordinated effort.

“Residents must take precautions – this is no time for complacency.

“On Monday morning we could experience winds in excess of 200km/h.

“I expect long-term residents who have experienced a cyclone to show the way and demonstrate an understanding of the seriousness of cyclones.

“For new arrivals to North Queensland the message is very clear: don’t underestimate the force of nature. Cyclone Larry can be far worse than any storm you have ever experienced. It is no time for false bravado or a wait and see approach.

“I call on all residents between Cooktown and Mackay to take stock of their neighbourhood, including caring for the elderly and disabled: know where they are, and check they are OK before and after the cyclone

“That’s what we expect from Queenslanders.”

Safety warnings will be issued throughout the day.

To prepare, some basic survival tips are:

Regularly listen to the radio for weather updates.
Clear your properties of rubbish, clean out gutters, and move inside or secure any outdoor items that could become loose in strong winds.
Secure doors and windows.
Cover cars with a tarpaulin.
Prepare an emergency kit with emergency phone numbers, medication, tinned food, portable radio, spare batteries and first aid kit.

[SouthFloridawx]

radar for landfalling aread

http://www.eldersweather.com.au/radar.j ... ate&lc=qld

sat pics

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... RODUCT=1km

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cat3 on the ss scale.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 MAR 2006 Time : 073300 UTC
Lat : 17:50:19 S Lon : 149:21:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 945.8mb/102.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17.2km

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.5 5.7 7.6

Eye Temp : +7.3C Cloud Region Temp : -78.7C

Scene Type : CLEAR EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

19/0833 UTC 17.7S 149.0E T5.5/5.5 LARRY -- South Pacific Ocean


Now 100 knots...

[AussieMark]

TOP PRIORITY
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For coastal waters from Cape Melville to Coolangatta.
Issued at 11:15 pm EST on Sunday 19 March 2006

Synoptic Situation
Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry with central pressure 925 hectopascals
centred at 7 pm near 17.6S 149.0E, which is 170 nm east of Innisfail and moving in a general westerly direction at about 13 knots. Position good.
The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it continues to move in a general westerly direction. The core of the cyclone is expected to be on
or near the coast between Innisfail and Mission Beach between 7 am and
9 am Monday morning.

Storm Warning
Cairns to Bowen
Clockwise winds at 40/60 knots will increase to hurricane force 90/100
knots near the centre of the cyclone. Seas will increase to above 3-5
metres.

Gale Warning
Cape Tribulation to Cairns
SW/S winds will increase to 35/45 knots overnight. Seas will increase to 3-5 metres.

Gale Warning
Bowen to Mackay
SE winds will increase to 35/45 knots overnight. Seas will increase to 3-5 metres.

Strong Wind Warning
Cape Melville to Cape Tribulation
SW to S winds are expected to increase to 25/30 knots overnight. Seas will rise to 3 metres on an increasing SE/E swell. Winds will ease below 25 knots north of Cooktown during the next 12 hours.

Strong Wind Warning
Mackay to Coolangatta including Hervey and Moreton Bays
SE winds will increase to 25/33 knots overnight and on Monday. Seas will rise to 3 metres on an increasing SE/E swell.

The next warning will be issued by 2 am AEST Monday.

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

-------------------------- End of warning ----------------------------

[AussieMark]

http://www.bom.gov.au//fwo/IDQ65001.gif?1142773409583

Name: Larry
Severity Category: 4
Situation At: 10PM EST Sunday 19 March 2006
Warning Area: Cape Tribulation to Mackay, extending inland to near Normanton
Watch Area: In the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria, including Normanton
Location: 17.5S 148.3E
Recent Movement: W at 25 km/h
Remarks: Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry poses a VERY SERIOUS THREAT to life and property in the warning area.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY
with extreme gusts up to 280 km/hr should cross the coast between
INNISFAIL and MISSION BEACH between 7am and 9am MONDAY
MORNING. DESTRUCTIVE winds are expected to commence along the
coast between INGHAM and PORT DOUGLAS early MONDAY MORNING. GALES are already being experienced along the exposed coast in the warning area.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Townsville are specifically warned of the
DANGEROUS storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to
steadily rise up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide,
with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending
some way inland. People living in areas should be prepared to evacuate if
advised by authorities.

Marine users please note: Tropical cyclone information specific to the marine community is contained in Coastal Wind Warnings and Ocean
Wind Warnings. Refer to those warnings for the areas of strong winds,
gales and more intense winds associated with the cyclone

[weatherwindow]

pressure down to 925 mb...upgraded to cat 4 cyclone(aus scale)...gusts to 165...landfall imminent....obs close to center-flinders reef-E 79 kts sustained....www.bom.gov.au.....rich

[benny]

nice radar at:

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR212.shtml

[AussieMark]

Mackay
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR222.loop.shtml

Townsville
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR212.loop.shtml

[P.K.]

280kph is actually a cat 5 (Just), so I'm not sure why the advisory says cat 4.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:51pm on Sunday the 19th of March 2006

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
from Cape Tribulation to Mackay, and extending to inland to near Normanton.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch has now been extended onto the southeast coast of the
Gulf of Carpentaria.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry poses a VERY SERIOUS THREAT to life and property
in the warning area.

At 11.30 pm AEST Sunday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4 with central
pressure 925 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.5 south
and longitude 147.8 east, about 190 km east of Innisfail. The cyclone is
expected to continue to move in a general westerly direction TOWARDS THE COAST
at about 25 km/h.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY with EXTREME GUSTS of
approximately 280 km/hr should cross the coast between INNISFAIL and MISSION
BEACH between 7am and 9am MONDAY MORNING. DESTRUCTIVE winds are expected to
commence along the coast between INGHAM and PORT DOUGLAS early MONDAY MORNING.
GALES are already being experienced along the exposed coast in the warning area.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Townsville are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to
steadily rise up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide,
with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending
some way inland. People living in areas should be prepared to evacuate if
advised by authorities.

A preliminary flood warning has been issued for coastal rivers and streams
between Innisfail and Mackay.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4, for 11.30 pm AEST Sunday
Central Pressure : 925 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 17.5 degrees south
longitude 147.8 degrees east
about 190 kilometres east of Innisfail
Recent Movement : West at 25 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 120 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 280 kilometres per hour

People in the path of this VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter - above the expected water level - while the very destructive


winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the
cyclone - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any
time. Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police or State Emergency
Service personnel.

People over inland areas in the Gulf Country between Normanton and Burketown in
the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria should consider what action they will need to
take if the cyclone threat increases.

The next warning will be issued at 1 am AEST Monday.

[HURAKAN]

INGRID HAS MET ITS MATCH, LARRY!

[KWT]

Looks VERY impressive indeed on both satilite and radar and I'm not suprised at all that its upto 280km/hr. All i can say is that i hope al lthe towns that ar ein the path have prepared for this sytem because it looks like being quite a major one.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Thousands flee Cyclone Larry

20mar06

RESIDENTS in far north Queensland are bracing for Cyclone Larry, expected to be the worst storm to hit the area in decades.

Thousands of residents last night fled the state's far north as authorities compared the violent storm to America's Hurricane Katrina.
Mandatory evacuations have been enforced in numerous low-lying seafront areas, including in the Johnstone and Cardwell shires, expected to bear the brunt of the cyclone and its 4m storm surge.

In addition to the evacuation of island resorts in the path of the cyclone, emergency authorities have also warned residents in low-lying areas between Cairns and Townsville to "seriously consider" leaving.

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) senior forecaster Geoff Doueal said Larry - a category four cyclone that could develop into a five, the most intense rating - was 190km east of Innisfail and travelling west at 25km/h.

The cyclone was expected to hit between Innisfail and Cardwell, south of Cairns, between 7am and 9am (AEST) today.

Mr Douel said Larry would bring with it "pretty horrendous weather".

"It's a very dangerous tropical cyclone," he said.

"(There will be) extreme gusts and destructive winds as well as flooding of low-lying areas."

He said destructive winds were forecast to start soon between Ingham and Port Douglas, with low-lying areas between Cairns and Townsville also expected to be flooded.

It had already started to become rainy and windy across the coast, Mr Douel said.

The spokesman for Townsville Thuringowa Disaster Co-ordination Centre, Tony Woods, said pressure had been taken off the highly populated area of Townsville after Larry took a northerly direction towards Mission Beach and Innisfail.

But Mr Woods was still worried about storms in the region.

"Just about everyone's battening down the hatches and waiting to see when the cyclone crosses," he said, adding the authority had received no calls so far.

"We'll just have to wait and see."

Mr Woods said there had been a "big rush" in the area's supermarkets late yesterday as people prepared for Larry.

"Our city dumps were bumper to bumper of people taking the garbage out before the blow. Service stations were chock-a-block pretty much all afternoon."

[HURAKAN]

280kph is actually a cat 5 (Just), so I'm not sure why the advisory says cat 4.

CATEGORY 5 IS MORE THAN 280 KPH.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters in the area Cape Tribulation to
Mackay are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.


TOP PRIORITY
UPDATED TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 3:11am on Monday the 20th of March 2006

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
from Cape Tribulation to Mackay, and extending to inland to near Normanton.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch has now been extended onto the southeast coast of the
Gulf of Carpentaria.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry poses a VERY SERIOUS THREAT to life and property
in the warning area.

At 1.30 am AEST Monday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4 with central
pressure 925 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.5 south
and longitude 147.4 east, about 145 km east of Innisfail. The cyclone is
expected to continue to move in a general westerly direction TOWARDS THE COAST
at about 25 km/h.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY with EXTREME GUSTS of
approximately 280 km/hr should cross the coast near INNISFAIL between 7am and
9am MONDAY MORNING. GALES are already being experienced along the exposed coast
in the warning area and DESTRUCTIVE winds are expected to commence along the
coast between INGHAM and PORT DOUGLAS in the next hour or so.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Townsville are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to
steadily rise up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide,
with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending
some way inland. People living in areas should be prepared to evacuate if
advised by authorities.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry will move further inland during the day. Although
the cyclone will gradually weaken, the destructive core of Larry will move
across the Atherton Tablelands this morning with gusts to 180 km/h. It will then
move further inland into the Northern Goldfields this afternoon with gusts to
140 km/h.

A preliminary flood warning has been issued for coastal rivers and streams
between Innisfail and Mackay.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4, for 3 am AEST Monday
Central Pressure : 925 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 17.5 degrees south
longitude 147.2 degrees east
about 120 kilometres east of Innisfail






Recent Movement : West at 25 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 120 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 280 kilometres per hour

People in the path of this VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter - above the expected water level - while the very destructive




winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the
cyclone - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any
time. Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police or State Emergency
Service personnel.

People over inland areas in the Gulf Country between Normanton and Burketown in
the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria should consider what action they will need to
take if the cyclone threat increases.

The next warning will be issued at 3 am AEST Monday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[HURAKAN]

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters in the area Cape Tribulation to
Bowen are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 20
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 3:46am on Monday the 20th of March 2006

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
from Cape Tribulation to Bowen, and extending inland to near Normanton.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch is current for the southeast coast of the Gulf of
Carpentaria.

The warning between Mackay and Bowen has been cancelled.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry poses a VERY SERIOUS THREAT to life and property
in the warning area.

At 3.30 am AEST Monday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4 with central
pressure 920 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.5 south
and longitude 147.0 east, about 100 km east of Innisfail. The cyclone is
expected to continue to move in a general westerly direction TOWARDS THE COAST
at about 25 km/h.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY with EXTREME GUSTS of
approximately 280 km/hr should cross the coast near INNISFAIL between 7am and
9am MONDAY MORNING. GALES are already being experienced along the exposed coast
in the warning area and DESTRUCTIVE winds are expected to commence along the
coast between INGHAM and PORT DOUGLAS in the next hour or so.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Cardwell are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to
steadily rise up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide,
with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending
some way inland.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry will move further inland during the day. Although
the cyclone will gradually weaken, the destructive core of Larry will move
across the Atherton Tablelands this morning with gusts to 180 km/h. It will then
move further inland into the Northern Goldfields this afternoon with gusts to
140 km/h.

A preliminary flood warning has been issued for coastal rivers and streams
between Innisfail and Mackay.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4, for 3.30 am AEST Monday
Central Pressure : 925 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 17.5 degrees south
longitude 147.0 degrees east


about 100 kilometres east of Innisfail

Recent Movement : West at 25 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 120 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 280 kilometres per hour

People in the path of this VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter - above the expected water level - while the very destructive
winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the
cyclone - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any
time. Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police or State Emergency
Service personnel.

People over inland areas in the Gulf Country between Normanton and Burketown in
the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria should consider what action they will need to
take if the cyclone threat increases.

The next warning will be issued at 5 am AEST Monday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[SouthFloridawx]

They are talking on the aussie radio of gusts over 300KPH

300kph 187.5mph

[aerojad]

Two satellite images with tracklines for Larry as well as Wati coming up behind it here.