SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

Weatherfreak000 · #481 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 10:37 am

Patrick99 wrote:If the waters off Africa stay relatively cool. my guess is that there won't be much of a Cape Verde season (again) and waves will develop closer to home (again).

I agree and these have been my thoughts about a Cape Verde Season all along in opinion it just won't happen.

All signs seem to be agreeing with that so far, but things could change so i'll keep watch. But now going into Late-March i'm pretty confident of what i'm seeing for sure.

#482 Postby **drezee** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 10:53 am

Stealing a post from talkweather...but GOM is a good bit warmer this year compared to last.

2005

2006

benny · #483 Postby **benny** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:04 pm

I think it is important to keep perspective on SSTA this time of year. Just because it is just a little warm doesn't mean it won't be an active year or have storms in the deep tropics. For example, here are SSTs from a very active Cape Verde Year (1999) that in early April were cool:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.1999.gif

Many papers have shown that La Nina winters lead to cooling of tropical Atlc SSTS due to enhanced evaporation/upwelling from stronger than average tradewinds because of enhanced subtropical surface ridging. This effect does tend to reverse itself in the summer (see 1999 as an example as well)

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 7.1999.gif

typically upper winds will control deep tropical development, not SST.. things to keep in mind.

#484 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:34 pm

Thank you benny for that post.... It is interesting how cool the waters are in april then in september when cape verde season is the waters are really warm. I guess that it doesn't really matter what the temps are now because cape verde season is 4-6 months away anyway.

MiamiensisWx · #485 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:40 pm

I agree, benny, and southfloridawx2005!

whereverwx · #486 Postby **whereverwx** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 5:21 pm

Don't know if it has been posted yet, but this is pretty cool.

#487 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 10:31 pm

that map of the waters in the GOM and off of FL is scary because it looks like the SSTs are warmer this year than last year. :eek:

#488 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:53 pm

It appears as though our cooling trend off of africa is starting to slow down and warm up a bit.

March 15th

March 19th

The deep dark blues are going away. More of the GOM is heating up.

#489 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:55 pm

The cool pool of anomalies in the Eastern Atlantic persists,however besides that area the rest of the Atlantic looks on average to slightly above average.Of course the warmest waters are located in the GOM and that warm anomalie has persisted for the past 3 months.

MiamiensisWx · #490 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 2:15 pm

The Atlantic is warming now in many areas...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #491 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 2:18 pm

Yeah the central-western Atlantic north of PR is warming...With a slight warm up over the Eastern Atlantic. Should not change anything...Because 1998 through 2005 where all above normal sst's. Last year was what you call once every thousand years...Not going to happen. 13 named storms sounds pretty good.

whereverwx · #492 Postby **whereverwx** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 2:47 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #493 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 2:49 pm

Yeah the east coast like 2003 is cooling off...

Weatherfreak000 · #494 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 4:04 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Yeah the central-western Atlantic north of PR is warming...With a slight warm up over the Eastern Atlantic. Should not change anything...Because 1998 through 2005 where all above normal sst's. Last year was what you call once every thousand years...Not going to happen. 13 named storms sounds pretty good.

You seem pretty confident of this, however 2005, 2004, 2003, 2001, 2000 1998, and 1995 were all above that number, if even minimally.

So what that's 7/10? lol. I'm sorry to say it but 13 storms isn't above average activity anymore. We all have our respect opinions Matt's and I certainly respect yours. But 13 storms seem downright ridiculous to me.

But of course only one way to see, and if we get around that number i'll be the first one to write you an apology topic.

#495 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 4:08 pm

That is why we are all making predictions. Some will be high and some will be low and we all have our reasons for predicting that. For all we know the numbers could end up being under his.

Weatherfreak000 · #496 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 4:13 pm

I'd have no complaints to that, southfloridawx2005.

#497 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 4:15 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I'd have no complaints to that, southfloridawx2005.

I wasn't trying to insult you by the way....

:lol:

#498 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 4:18 pm

Ok both southernflorida2005 and Weatherfreak000 let cool minds prevail between both of you.

Weatherfreak000 · #499 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 4:21 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:I'd have no complaints to that, southfloridawx2005.

I wasn't trying to insult you by the way....

I know and obivously no argument, I was just implying I wouldn't mind a 1997 season this year for sure :lol:

#500 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 4:23 pm

We cool Luis

SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

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