SW Pacific: Severe TC Larry (Ex TD 15)

[SouthFloridawx]

[CHRISTY]

[SouthFloridawx]

[MiamiensisWx]

LOOK AT THAT! SIMPLY IMPRESSIVE! LOOK OUT FOR LARRY! HOPEFULLY, EVERYONE HAS TAKEN PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES!

[SouthFloridawx]

[Brandon007]

wow I'm impressed there is one killer system and looks to be followed by another one All of these different classifications are becoming confusing why don't they have just one global classification system?

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't know why Larry hasn't been upgraded by FNMOC to 100KT... it sure looks like that!

[SouthFloridawx]

http://crocs.nqld.net.au/ Aussie Radio Based out of Townsville

[MiamiensisWx]

WHAT A WELL-OILED MACHINE! EVERYONE IN THE PATH NEEDS TO STAY SAFE!

[SouthFloridawx]

shows both storms in the picture

[P.K.]

CATEGORY 5 IS MORE THAN 280 KPH.

That image is wrong if you look at the FAQs. Cat 4 is up to 279kmh so cat 5 must start at 280kmh.

[CHRISTY]

CHECK THIS OUT GUYS!!!!!

[img]ftp://ftp.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/neausmovie.gif[/img]

[SouthFloridawx]

CATEGORY 5 IS MORE THAN 280 KPH.

That image is wrong if you look at the FAQs. Cat 4 is up to 279kmh so cat 5 must start at 280kmh.

those are gusts though... up to 290

[MiamiensisWx]

LARRY IS ABOUT TO STRIKE!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

This would make Larry a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Remember: ATCI uses maximum gusts...which, with 280 km/h being 175 mph....we are looking at approximately a 145 MPH system (1-minute sustained).

A reminder for australian systems: DO NOT USE DVORAK OR JTWC FOR STRENGTH MEASUREMENTS. Dvorak is often inaccurate for SH systems (for whatever reason...who knows why) and the JTWC only updates every 12 hours, and they are often very very wrong.

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone is what you want to use

[P.K.]

wow I'm impressed there is one killer system and looks to be followed by another one All of these different classifications are becoming confusing why don't they have just one global classification system?

It is fine as it is, the Aussies won't even think of the SS scale when looking at TCs.

Re the post above: The scale works on gusts and not sustained winds.

Edit - Several posts above now but you know which one I mean.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1811 UTC 19 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 920 hectopascals centred at 191200
UTC near 17.5S 147.0 and moving westwards at 14 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected to move overland by 200000UTC with winds easing.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 180nm of the cyclone centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm
in the northern semi-circle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 180 nm in the southern semicircle. Clockwise
winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots
within 50nm of the centre and maximum winds reaching 100 knots near the centre.
Seas very rough to phenomenal on a heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 200600 UTC near 17.6S 144.0E overland with maximum winds 40 knots
At 201200 UTC near 18.1S 140.7E with winds below 35 knots.


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[MiamiensisWx]

NICE! WHAT IS NOT NICE, THOUGH, IS LANDFALL!

[CrazyC83]

920 mb = likely around 150-155 mph sustained winds. That would be a strong Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. I HATE the Australian scale - it is too confusing and almost impossible to get perfect measurements.

[CHRISTY]

THIS IS NOT THAT WELL OF A PIC BUT I THOUGHT I'D POST IT....