SEVERE weather for Texas....

[WaitingForSiren]

Im confused about todays day 2 severe weather outlook issued by SPC, they outline a 25% probability area yet in their tables it says the only level higher than 15% is 30%. Is this some kind of error on their part, or can they just issue whatever probabilities they feel like, or what? Thanks in advance.

[wxmann_91]

Im confused about todays day 2 severe weather outlook issued by SPC, they outline a 25% probability area yet in their tables it says the only level higher than 15% is 30%. Is this some kind of error on their part, or can they just issue whatever probabilities they feel like, or what? Thanks in advance.

I didn't notice that before. That's a pretty good question.

[aggiecutter]

If the forcast is correct, I'll be needing an Arc by the end of the weekend. We still need a lot of rain in the southern plains region to replenish the water supply in the lakes and rivers.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How many tornaodes could there be?

[wxmann_91]

How many tornaodes could there be?

Don't know. Yesterday's runs showed a good low-amplitude slightly negatively-tilted trough, along with a ~990 mb low. Today's 12Z run IMO can be discarded since many times this past winter it is usually around the 72-84 hr that lows dissapear only to reappear stronger. In addition, the NAM has the 500 mb trough over the intermountain west at 84 hr, whereas the GFS over Kansas. So the models don't have a good grasp on this yet. Without a strong Pac Jet and Bermuda High to bring up moisture, and a somewhat weaker/more westerly LLJ, this does not look like a big outbreak. Add to the fact the LLJ will be strongest overnight, it looks very much like there will be junk convection to contend with in the morning, and instability will be a big problem.

[WaitingForSiren]

I agree I think the biggest severe threat comes Monday when this system moves out. I think that threat area will be centered over eastern LA, AL and MS. I dont think there will be a big tornado outbreak either way or even A tornado outbreak, but I could see several tornadoes over those areas.

[conestogo_flood]

Is tomorrow a moderate risk for Texas anyone? That is a pretty big 30%.

[TexasStooge]

We're not sure yet.

[cheezyWXguy]

can domebody send me one of those severe
maps yall keep talking about with the 15% and the 30% and all thos things

[TexasStooge]

Here's the prababilistic map for tomorrow:

[cheezyWXguy]

cool...Im just outside the 30% area...hopefully itll expand a little more

[Yankeegirl]

Im just outside of the 30% area as well... I do expect things to get a little bumpy here tomorrow everning/afternoon.... Get out the batteries in case the power goes out... lol...

[southerngale]

I hope we can get some rain in Southeast Texas. We've had a lot of wildfires in the past several days, and they're getting way too close to my house for comfort. Yesterday a train going by sparked a series of fires near a middle school. Fortunately, they were able to contain those pretty quickly. They were near houses and one of them was approaching flammable railroad timbers, and that would have made things much worse.

Lumberton (a town 5 miles north of Beaumont) has battled 20 fires in the past 3 days. Come on rain!

[jasons2k]

I wonder if the NWS in houston is alseep at the wheel tonight. They said they were removing mention of any thunder for tonight in the last AFD. Looks like this shortwave has some punch to it if you ask me though.

[Portastorm]

I wonder if the NWS in houston is alseep at the wheel tonight. They said they were removing mention of any thunder for tonight in the last AFD. Looks like this shortwave has some punch to it if you ask me though.

I thought the same thing last night about our locals in AUS/SAT, as severe thunderstorms were rumbling across portions of the Hill Country west of us. Turns out, once again, the experts at NWS were right. The "heavy stuff" stayed out west and moved northeast while all we saw overnight were some occasional showers.

Now this morning the action is starting to heat up here in south central Texas. Currently have a nasty cell to our northwest and under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 a.m.

Not griping though ... the rain for us this weekend has been great with more to come!

[Portastorm]

I wonder if the NWS in houston is alseep at the wheel tonight. They said they were removing mention of any thunder for tonight in the last AFD. Looks like this shortwave has some punch to it if you ask me though.

I thought the same thing last night about our locals in AUS/SAT, as severe thunderstorms were rumbling across portions of the Hill Country west of us. Turns out, once again, the experts at NWS were right. The "heavy stuff" stayed out west and moved northeast while all we saw overnight were some occasional showers.

Now this morning the action is starting to heat up here in south central Texas. Currently have a nasty cell to our northwest and under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 a.m.

Not griping though ... the rain for us this weekend has been great with more to come!

Looks like a rough night for us ... Tornado Watch just has been issued for the Hill Country and areas west.

[Yankeegirl]

It is starting to get dark here... The sun was out earlier...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well the Bermuda high isn't really helping Florida on this we really need rain to sent here.

[jasons2k]

Things are picking up!

[gboudx]

Well we got, and are getting, our drought busting rain up here. From Friday to this afternoon, my rain gauge had over 4.5". I dumped it out and checked it about 2 hours ago and it was up over 3.5". And the rain continues to fall.

I ain't complaining; I just hope people are smart about the flash flooding.