What kinda hurricane season would we have w/107F SSTs???????

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spinfan4eva
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What kinda hurricane season would we have w/107F SSTs???????

#1 Postby spinfan4eva » Sun Mar 19, 2006 5:39 pm

Its happenned in the past... Doubt it will happen again, in our lifetimes anyway. Would make for one heck of a hurricane season--forget the gulf loop :eek:

Warmer than a Hot Tub: Atlantic Ocean Temperatures Much Higher in the Past
Study Suggests Climate Models Underestimate Future Warming

February 17, 2006
Media Relations Office
Fenno House MS #40
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution -- http://www.whoi.edu/mr/pr.do?id=10346

Scientists have found evidence that tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures may have once reached 107°F (42°C)—about 25°F (14°C) higher than ocean temperatures today and warmer than a hot tub. The surprisingly high ocean temperatures, the warmest estimates to date for any place on Earth, occurred millions of year ago when carbon dioxide levels in Earth’s atmosphere were also high, but researchers say they may be an indication that greenhouse gases could heat the oceans in the future much more than currently anticipated. The study suggests that climate models underestimate future warming.

“These temperatures are off the charts from what we’ve seen before,” said Karen Bice, a paleoclimatologist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). Bice reported the findings Feb. 17 at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in St. Louis and is also lead author of a study to be published in an upcoming issue of the journal Paleoceanography, published by the American Geophysical Union.

Bice and a multi-institutional team of scientists studied three long columns of sediment cored from the seafloor in 2003 off Suriname, on the northeast coast of South America, by the drillship JOIDES Resolution, operated by the international Ocean Drilling Program.

The sediments contained an unusually rich and well-preserved accumulation of both carbon-rich organic matter and the fossilized shells of microscopic marine organisms that had settled and piled up on the seafloor over tens of millions of years. The deeper down in the core the scientists analyzed, the further back in time they went.

The team analyzed the shells’ isotopic and trace element chemistry, which changes along with temperature changes in the surface waters where they lived. They determined that ocean temperatures in the region ranged between 91° and 107°F (33° and 42°C) between 84 million and 100 million years ago in an era when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. Temperatures range between 75° and 82°F (24° and 28°C) in the same region now. The approximate uncertainty in the paleotemperature estimates is +/-2°C.

Using organic matter from the sediments, the group also estimated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during the same time span. They were 1,300 to 2,300 parts per million (ppm), compared with 380 ppm today.

The findings, if confirmed, create a dilemma for scientists seeking to forecast how Earth’s climate and environment will change in response to the rising amounts of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, caused by deforestation and the burning of oil, coal, and other fossil fuels. When 1,300 to 2,300 ppm of carbon dioxide is factored into current computer models that simulate global climate, it does not produce such high ocean temperatures.

“The climate models underestimate temperatures and the amount of warming that would accompany an increase in CO2 of more than 1,000 ppm above today’s level.” Bice said..

If the scientists’ interpretations of past ocean temperatures and carbon dioxide levels prove accurate, actual future warming from elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations may be much greater than predicted by the models, the scientists reported.

“One of the most important impacts this evidence suggests is the change to the Earth’ hydrologic cycle,” Bice said. “Higher tropical temperatures will increase the intensity of hurricanes and winter storms. In addition, precipitation patterns will change, moving even more rain that now falls on the central U.S. - an area known as the breadbasket of the U.S. for its food production - to higher latitudes where the quality of the soil may not be as conducive to agriculture”

“Policymakers use these models to predict likely climate change with increasing CO2 levels, and if the models are not right, society is not well informed or well served.”

Alternatively, the models used to predict future climate may be missing a critical factor that amplifies heating, Bice said. During past warm periods, oceans and wetlands may have released much more methane gas to the atmosphere. Methane traps heat 10 times more effectively than carbon dioxide.

However, extraordinarily high concentrations of methane in the model still fail to produce the tropical Atlantic and Arctic Ocean temperatures inferred for 91 million years ago. This supports the idea that the model’s response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations underestimates the actual climate system’s response.

The research team included Bice and Kristina Dahl of WHOI, Philip A. Meyers of the University of Michigan, Daniel Birgel and Kai-Uwe Hinrichs of the University of Bremen, and Richard D. Norris of Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Bice’s work was supported by private funding from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution through the Ocean and Climate Change Institute and The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research. Funding for this research was also provided by the Joint Oceanographic Institutions U.S. Science Support Program and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft through the DFG-Research Center Ocean Margins.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Mar 19, 2006 5:40 pm

Every hurricane would be a cat5...We would have 50 of them.
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#3 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Mar 19, 2006 5:47 pm

Everytime the local weather came on, I'd have to change my shorts.

:eek:
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#4 Postby weatherwoman132 » Sun Mar 19, 2006 5:48 pm

wow. hopefully that doesnt happen in our lifetime...that would be the scariest thing alive.
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#5 Postby milankovitch » Sun Mar 19, 2006 6:05 pm

Image

http://www.bbsr.edu/rpi/public/pubs/pre ... dmain.html

If upper air temperatures increased linearly with SST increaces maybe the maximum potential intensity might go from about 185 mph to 235 mph over 42C water, just a rough estimate.
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#6 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Mar 19, 2006 6:15 pm

milankovitch wrote:Image

http://www.bbsr.edu/rpi/public/pubs/pre ... dmain.html

If upper air temperatures increased linearly with SST increaces maybe the maximum potential intensity might go from about 185 mph to 235 mph over 42C water, just a rough estimate.


235 mph? That would alter American civilization in unimaginable ways. :eek:
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#7 Postby f5 » Sun Mar 19, 2006 6:16 pm

235 mph would make Wilma look like a TS
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#8 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Mar 19, 2006 6:21 pm

It would be a total disaster :eek:
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#9 Postby spinfan4eva » Sun Mar 19, 2006 6:40 pm

Another thought, if SSTs were 107, the land air temp would be higher, imagine a 107 degree seabreeze might would be a good time to play in the sprinkler
:sprinkler:
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#10 Postby f5 » Sun Mar 19, 2006 7:23 pm

spinfan4eva wrote:Another thought, if SSTs were 107, the land air temp would be higher, imagine a 107 degree seabreeze might would be a good time to play in the sprinkler
:sprinkler:


an thats just an average summer day in Phoenix
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Jim Cantore

#11 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Mar 19, 2006 7:31 pm

When it comes to hypercanes, one part of me wants to see one, the common sense side of me doesnt
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DoctorHurricane2003

#12 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sun Mar 19, 2006 7:48 pm

:roll:

Stop with the "hypercane" nonsense.
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#13 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Mar 19, 2006 7:49 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote::roll:

Stop with the "hypercane" nonsense.



y i think it is a real possibility
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Jim Cantore

#14 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Mar 19, 2006 7:53 pm

Right before the planet plunges into the next ice age, water temps should be warm enough to support one, in my opinion, Tip wasnt far from a hypercane
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#15 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sun Mar 19, 2006 7:55 pm

There are physical limits to tropical cyclones. With increased SSTs, you would probably see lower atmospheric pressures across a basin, so a lower barometric pressure inside of a hurricane would be required to reach the same wind speed. Then you have the simple fact that the higher the wind speed, the more unstable the inner structure of the cyclone becomes.

For a so-called 235 MPH hurricane (sustained winds) to even be possible, it would have to be a very very compact storm with an extremely low central pressure in a higher than average environment, and if it ever reached that high, it would probably only be there for a maximum of 6-12 hours.
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DoctorHurricane2003

#16 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sun Mar 19, 2006 7:57 pm

Far from what, Floyd? A made-up term that only exists in Hollywood movies?
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#17 Postby senorpepr » Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:01 pm

Remember... it's not really how warm the waters are, but rather, "are they favorable for development." Furthermore, SSTs are only one factor. If SSTs increase, will shear increase too? Things to think about...
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Jim Cantore

#18 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:01 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:Far from what, Floyd? A made-up term that only exists in Hollywood movies?


Tip had the size, double its strength and that is considered a hypercane, 380mph and 1500 miles wide
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#19 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:03 pm

Floyd...there is no such thing. I'm sorry.
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#20 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:05 pm

actually it'd probably be about 15 miles wide instead of 1500...there is no way a storm can be 1500 miles wide and be compact enuf to be a hypercane
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