South Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati (18P)

[Weatherfreak000]

Wati has some very strong circular convection associated with it, I wouldn't be surprised to see this one reach Severe Status as well.


But we're gonna have to keep an eye on it I suppose.

[weatherwoman132]

yay! storms lol. what is alrry now? what category?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Still a tropical storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

19/2033 UTC 16.6S 160.8E T3.0/3.0 WATI

45 knots...

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 19/2001 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Wati centre [987hPa] was located near 16.7 South
161.7 East at 191800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation and 1638Z TMI pass. Cyclone moving west-southwest 16
knots. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the
centre estimated at 45 knots increasing to 55 knots in the next 12
hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the
sector from northwest through east to southwest and within 60 miles
of centre elsewhere.

LLCC underneath a slowly developing CDO. Overall organisation
gradually improving. Outflow good in northern semicircle but still
restricted elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap of
.6 and adding 0.5 to DT for white band, yielding DT=3.5, MET=3.5 and
PT=3.0. FT based on PT: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24hrs. Wati has moved in the
vicinity of a 250hPa outflow. Vertical wind shear around 10 to 20
knots and Wati is expected to remain in a moderately sheared
environment. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is being steered
west-southwest by a deep mean northeast flow driven by a mid-level
sub-tropical ridge to the south. Consensus of available global models
agree on steady west-southwest track with gradual intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 200600 UTC near 17.9S 159.3E mov WSW 13kt with 55kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid at 201800 UTC near 18.4S 157.1E mov WSW 12kt with 65kt
close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 210600 UTC near 18.8S 155.5E mov WSW 10kt with 65kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 211200 UTC near 19.5S 154.4E mov WSW 10kt with 65kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC Wati will be issued
around 200200UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Storm Warning 012 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 20/0107 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Wati [985hPa] centre was located near 17.0 South
160.0 East at 200000 UTC. Position fair.
Repeat position 17.0S 160.0E at 200000 UTC.
Cyclone moving west at 17 knots.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre increasing to
55 knots in the next 6 hours.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre
Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sector
from northwest through east to southwest and within 60 miles of
centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 17.5S 157.3E at 201200 UTC
and near 17.7S 155.5E at 210000 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI and TCWC Brisbane. VOS
reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679
6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 011.

FURTHER WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI WILL BE ISSUED BY TCWC
BRISBANE.

[Rod Hagen]

Still a tropical storm.

Larry hit the coast as a Cat 5, was still Cat 4 when it reached Innisfail, and now, 200kms inland, has weakened to a Cat 3. - see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

The worry when they hit this part of the Queensland coast is that they will then head over the Gulf of Carpentaria and re-intensify before hitting major Aboriginal communities in Arnhem Land, or even Darwin. Fortunately Larry looks as if it will pass a little south of the Gulf.

Wati is following a very similar path so far, but if it gets pushed further S could hit the major north Qld city of Townsville.

Cheers from Oz.

Rod

[SouthFloridawx]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm thinking this will ride the ridge for the next 24 to 36 hours. Its forward speed should get it pretty close to Aust. I would watch Townville for a landfall this time. I think cat3 on there scale.

[Rod Hagen]

I would watch Townville for a landfall this time. I think cat3 on there scale.

Townsville would be a much nastier target than Innisfail (where Larry met the coast) . Innisfail has a population of 9,000. Townsville is 140,000.

Rod

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats why this one needs to be watched closely.

[Rod Hagen]

Thats why this one needs to be watched closely.

Couldn't agree more, Matt.

Cheers

Rod

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0635 UTC 20 March 2006

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Wati with central pressure 980 hectopascals centred at
200600UTC near 17.2S 159.1E and moving west-southwest at 9 knots. Position poor.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nm of the low centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots. Maximum winds 45/55 knots within 20 nm of the
centre, increasing to 60 knots during the next 24 hours.

Forecast positions:
Near at 17.6S 156.5E at 201800UTC
Near at 18.0S 152.8E at 210600UTC

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning will be issued by 20 1300 UTC.
WEATHER BRISBANE

[I'm Watching You]

Wati will ride the ridge for the next 24 hours then stall and shift towards the SE towards New Zealand.

Watch and See. Because you know i'll be watching.

[I'm Watching You]

The reason why that JTWC has it moving SE is because there's currently an upper trough over mainland australia which is expected to move off the coast. This upper trough might interact with wati shearing it to bits and moving in the SE Direction towards NZ.

No one know's Australian Weather than the Australian BoM forecast everything right with larry when most models have it weak or even gone. Even though Larry was easy to predict. Wati Will be difficult because of that upper trough.

[Rod Hagen]

Australian BOM's current track map for Wati is at http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65242.shtml


Cheers

Rod

[WindRunner]

The reason why that JTWC has it moving SE is because there's currently an upper trough over mainland australia which is expected to move off the coast. This upper trough might interact with wati shearing it to bits and moving in the SE Direction towards NZ.

No one know's Australian Weather than the Australian BoM forecast everything right with larry when most models have it weak or even gone. Even though Larry was easy to predict. Wati Will be difficult because of that upper trough.

Isn't that the truth. JTWC only screws up about 4 out of 5 storms . . . BoM seems to alwasys have the better forecast

[I'm Watching You]

The Cyclone will only get sheared towards New Zealand if it gets below the 22 Degree South. There's strong upper shear below that line.

Watch and Learn.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1238 UTC 20 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Wati with central pressure 975 hectopascals centred at
201200UTC near 17.3S 157.6E and moving west at 13 knots. Position fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100nm of the cyclone centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots. Maximum winds 60 knots within 20 nm of the centre,
increasing to 80 knots during the next 24 hours.

Forecast positions:
Near 17.8S 155.3E at 210000UTC
Near 18.0S 153.5E at 221200UTC

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning will be issued by 201900 UTC.
WEATHER BRISBANE

[SouthFloridawx]

The Cyclone will only get sheared towards New Zealand if it gets below the 22 Degree South. There's strong upper shear below that line.

Watch and Learn.

if the trough pushes it south eastward into the shear Hurikan can officially put his hurricane dead stamp on it. There is plenty of shear below 20 and there is a upper level trough. Let's see what happens.