What If Katrina Had 24 more Hours over the Gulf Stream?

[gatorcane]

I wonder what would have happened. Considering that it managed to produced a gust to 100mph in Miami and the fact that it actually hardly weakened over it's WSW track through the Everglades since the env was near ideal, I feel

Miami would have seen a major hurricane with sustained winds of 130mph+ and gusts higher. I really think that.

What do you think?

[MiamiensisWx]

If Rita had formed further east, it might have passed near Key West as a strengthening Category Four, with Key West getting potentially part of the eyewall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cat2...Yes it was becoming more organized. But it would of started to suck in dry air off of Florida after to long.

[f5]

Cat2...Yes it was becoming more organized. But it would of started to suck in dry air off of Florida after to long.

Andrew didn't suck in dry air.Katrina at that time was a small storm not the supergiant she became while in the gulf.

[gatorcane]

Andrew didn't suck in dry air.Katrina at that time was a small storm not the supergiant she became while in the gulf.

I would say that Katrina was bigger than Andrew when over the Gulf stream...and she was organizing rapidly.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Category 4 150 mph IMO...like Charley bombed from cat 2 to cat 4 very quickly
eye was relatively small and would allow for this to happen

[gatorcane]

I could not believe how Katrina hardly weakened over the Everglades...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Rapid Intensification due to many factors...lack of shear...high Gulf Stream SSTs, and a strong ridge aiding the storms ventilation and outflow while preventing shear from such things as troughs or other systems...rapid intensification...
Well on evening of south florida landfall it was almost cat 2. Give it 2 more hours
or 3-4 more hours that evening it bombs to cat 4. Overnight in a few hours cat 4 goes to cat 5 with small eye feeding on Gulf Stream...crosses FL...barely weakens
to a high-end 4 over the Everglades...as it leaves FL

South Florida is very fortunate that Katrina did not have 24 hours more over water

[weatherwoman132]

yes we are.

[wxmann_91]

Miami was really lucky (spending just 24 hrs could've made it a Cat 2) but the Keys were probably the luckiest, spared from both the brunt of Rita and Wilma (which missed them by mere miles).

[CrazyC83]

If Katrina had 24 hours over the Gulf Stream, can anyone say monster?

I think less than 12 hours later, Katrina would be a formidable Category 3 hurricane, with 115 mph winds.

Here is a made-up estimate slowing Katrina down up to landfall then holding its speed after that (New Orleans is hit 24 hours later than actual), based on the NHC data:

23 / 1800 23.1 75.1 1008 30 tropical
depression
24 / 0000 23.4 75.7 1007 30 "
24 / 0600 23.8 76.2 1007 30 "
24 / 1200 24.5 76.5 1006 35 tropical storm
24 / 1800 25.4 76.9 1003 40 "
25 / 0000 26.0 77.7 1000 45 "
25 / 0600 26.1 78.0 997 50 "
25 / 1200 26.1 78.1 994 55 "
25 / 1800 26.1 78.3 988 60 "
26 / 0000 26.0 78.5 983 70 hurricane
26 / 0600 26.0 78.7 975 85 "
26 / 1200 26.0 79.1 958 100 "
26 / 1800 25.9 79.6 949 115 "
27 / 0000 25.7 80.5 946 105 "
27 / 0600 25.4 81.3 955 90 "
27 / 1200 25.1 82.0 952 85 "
27 / 1800 24.9 82.6 950 95 "
28 / 0000 24.6 83.3 938 105 "
28 / 0600 24.4 84.0 932 110 "
28 / 1200 24.4 84.7 927 125 "
28 / 1800 24.5 85.3 923 130 "
29 / 0000 24.8 85.9 916 135 "
29 / 0600 25.2 86.7 905 150 "
29 / 1200 25.7 87.7 900 155 "
29 / 1800 26.3 88.6 901 150 "
30 / 0000 27.2 89.2 907 140 "
30 / 0600 28.2 89.6 910 130 "
30 / 1200 29.5 89.6 916 120 "
30 / 1800 31.1 89.6 931 100 "
31 / 0000 32.6 89.1 957 75 "
31 / 0600 34.1 88.6 970 55 tropical storm
31 / 1200 35.6 88.0 979 45 "
31 / 1800 37.0 87.0 986 40 "
01 / 0000 38.6 85.3 990 35 extratropical
01 / 0600 40.1 82.9 991 35 "
01 / 1200 merged with front

29 / 1200 25.7 87.7 900 155 Maximum wind and minimum pressure

26 / 2230 26.0 80.1 944 120 FL landfall at Broward/Miami-Dade County line
30 / 1110 29.3 89.6 914 125 Landfall near Buras, LA
30 / 1445 30.2 89.6 918 120 Landfall near LA/MS border

[Jim Cantore]

I could not believe how Katrina hardly weakened over the Everglades...

The everglades are half warm water